Deerfield Beach, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

317
FXUS62 KMFL 060538
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
138 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 153 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025

Today...
WV imagery this morning depicts a large eastern CONUS trough with
an elongated potential vorticity anomaly draped across the
northern Gulf up to the Mid-Atlantic coast. A 05z subjective
surface analysis places a broad area of troughing across south
Florida, with a stationary boundary draped across central Florida
(delineated by primarily a Td gradient). Ensembles are in good
agreement that the aforementioned shortwave will amplify a bit
more through today before advecting northeast back into the
northern stream this weekend. They also agree on very little
organization of a surface reflection to the wave, likely due to a
combination of the limited depth of the shortwave combined with
slightly more stable air over land areas as the wave moves from
the Gulf to the Atlantic. So, while there will be some upper-level
support for ascent, the surface forcing will remain fairly broad
and likely more driven by seabreeze, outflow, and differential
heating boundaries. This setup yields a medium to high confidence
in numerous showers and storms, but low confidence in timing and
placement. The 00z sounding from MFL shows PWATs in the top 10th
percentile for this time of year. Further, across the southern
half of south Florida mid-level flow is rather unidirectional out
of the west, with surface flow backed more out of the south on the
southern edge of the broad trough. This would tend to favor a
convergent moisture feed with storms lining up and moving from
west to east. The anomalous moisture and the background winds
could result in pockets of heavy rainfall, especially across
Miami-Dade county today. Further north, the broad cyclonic storm
may result in less training of storms and more of a north to south
movement down the east coast. Between global models, CAMs, and the
National Blend, it appears as though common rain amounts across
south Florida will be on the order of 1-2" where it rains, with
values of 2-4" being a little more scattered in nature and
confined to the heavier storms. The HREF LPMM data indicates that
there`s a worst case potential for an isolated spot or two to pick
up 4-6" in short order and this is supported in more than just one
or two of the ensemble members. These more extreme amounts will be
most likely across Miami-Dade county today. But again, it`s
important to note that where these amounts may fall is highly
uncertain and some of the HREF members have these hot-spots
offshore - just something to be aware of going into the afternoon.

Saturday...
Not going to rehash the synoptic setup as it`s similar to what was
laid out above. The main difference is that the upper-level
forcing will begin to lift out of the region, though the moisture
and broad surface forcing will remain. The greatest rain
chances will once again be across the southern half of south
Florida along the trailing convergence area behind the very weak
surface reflection associated with the departing shortwave.
Ensembles all remain in good agreement on the pattern and as far
as rain amounts are concerned, they should be similar to today,
but possibly an inch or so lower across the board.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 153 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025

If you like the above, there`s plenty more of it in the extended
range. Multiple shortwaves are expected to drop into the Southeast
through next week and we`re forecast to remain in a moist
environment south of the perpetual stationary boundary/trough. In
short, a continuation of the high probability of rain but low
timing/location predictability is expected. Generally though,
storms should follow the typical diurnal trend. Pockets of heavy
rain remain likely, but the details on amounts won`t become
clearer until we enter the 36-48 hour window.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025

Low-level southwesterly flow will favor the seabreezes converging
along the east coast later this afternoon. Heavier than usual rain
will be possible within the stronger storms. Showers and storms
should come to an end rather quickly by the evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 153 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025

A gentle southwesterly wind flow will remain in place across most of
the local waters through the rest of the week and into the upcoming
weekend. These winds may occasionally become moderate across the
Atlantic waters during this time frame. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the
weekend. Locally hazardous winds and seas could develop in and
around thunderstorm activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            89  77  90  77 /  80  50  80  60
West Kendall     89  76  90  76 /  80  50  80  50
Opa-Locka        90  77  91  76 /  80  50  80  60
Homestead        88  76  89  76 /  80  60  60  50
Fort Lauderdale  88  77  90  76 /  80  60  80  60
N Ft Lauderdale  90  77  91  77 /  80  50  80  60
Pembroke Pines   91  77  92  76 /  80  50  80  60
West Palm Beach  90  76  91  76 /  80  70  80  60
Boca Raton       90  76  91  76 /  80  60  80  70
Naples           90  78  89  77 /  80  70  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM....Harrigan
AVIATION...Harrigan