Brandon, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

665
FXUS62 KTBW 201819
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
219 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Broad upper level ridging centered in the north central gulf extends
over Florida and the southeast U.S. for today. On the surface, high
pressure located in the eastern gulf will keep a light wind flow and
low rain chances over the region today. Daytime highs will top out
around 92-97 degrees this afternoon, with heat indices well into the
triple digits reaching 110 degrees in some areas. This has warranted
the issuance of a Heat Advisory for much of west central and
southwest Florida this afternoon through 6 pm. Another Heat Advisory
will likely be needed again for Monday afternoon.

By Monday morning, the upper high and ridge has shifted farther
westward near Louisiana, while the surface high shifts westward as
well and will be located over the north central gulf. This will
bring a shift in winds to the northwest direction as well as an
increase in moisture. A slight uptick in rain and storm chances
expected on Monday with 30-60 percent chance region wide.

By Tuesday morning, the upper ridge has shifted farther
northwestward over the Mississippi River Valley, while the surface
high shifts westward over the northwestern gulf. This will be the
start of a more unsettled weather pattern as an upper low and
surface troughing moves westward across Florida and into the eastern
gulf. Rain and storm chances ramp up to around 50-70 percent
starting Tuesday afternoon with this wetter pattern continuing
through the end of next week.

A drier weather pattern will set up by late Friday into next weekend
as the trough of low pressure moves farther westward and high
pressure builds east of Florida and moves westward through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 217 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

VFR conditions and winds less than 10 knots will prevail at all
terminals through the period. Rain and storm chances remain low, but
we have seen a couple of storms fire up near TPA/PIE, so will hold
VCTS and TEMPO TSRA through 20Z at those terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 217 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

High pressure ridging across Florida and into the eastern gulf
waters will produce light winds 10 knots or less, seas 2 feet or
less and low rain and storm chances (20-30 percent) over the area
today. Moisture increases on Monday with slightly higher rain
chances expected. An upper low and troughing then moves across
Florida and into the eastern gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday with even
higher rain chances expected through the end of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 217 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Abundant moisture, low rain chances and light winds will continue
for today. The only weather concern over the weekend will be extreme
heat. Daytime highs will reach 92-97 degrees each day, with heat
indices reaching the triple digits to around 110 degrees. Rain
chances ramp up Monday and Tuesday as an upper low and trough move
across Florida with a more wet pattern expected through much of next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  81  94  81  91 /  10  30  40  70
FMY  78  96  78  93 /  20  50  40  70
GIF  76  97  76  91 /  10  50  30  70
SRQ  78  94  78  91 /  10  30  30  60
BKV  74  94  75  91 /  10  40  50  70
SPG  81  91  80  89 /  10  20  40  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 8
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 8

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Citrus-
     Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-
     Highlands-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-
     Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-
     Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Carlisle