Alafaya, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

481
FXUS62 KMLB 070718
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
218 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 215 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

- A High Risk of rip currents will be present at area beaches
  through the weekend.

- Isolated to scattered showers are forecast to develop each day
  this weekend, mainly along the inland moving east coast sea
  breeze. There is a low (20% or less) chance of lightning storms.

- Temperatures will remain above normal with near record highs in
  the mid to upper 80s for interior sites this weekend and well
  into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Current-Tonight...KMLB 88D active early this morning with WDLY SCT
shower activity streaming onto the Space/Treasure coasts, some of
this activity will push into the interior before dissipating. A
brief downpour may occur, but any rainfall amounts will be light.
Again, may see some patchy (dense) fog at times early this
morning, esp north of I-4. Will also monitor for some low stratus
clouds across the I-4 corridor. High pressure continues across
the western Atlc with associated ridge axis north of ECFL. This
will continue to provide an ESE/SE flow thru the period with
sustained winds climbing to 10-15 mph during the day and higher
gusts, esp along the coast. A diffuse ECSB will push inland this
afternoon, with additional convection (20-30pct) developing. An
ISOLD lightning storm will be possible, with greatest chances over
the interior and south of Orlando. The lightning storm threat
remains below 20pct.

Highs will reach the L80s along the coast to M-U80s into the
interior. Overnight lows remain mild and in the 60s. Some areas
along the immediate Space/Treasure coasts and adjacent barrier
islands may realize values closer to 70F. Onshore flow will become
light again this evening, but may stay a bit elevated along the
coast.

A continued threat exists at ALL central FL beaches for numerous,
strong, life-threatening rip currents and occasional rough surf, in
part, due to the persistent ENE long period swell. It is strongly
discouraged to enter the chilly surf through this weekend!

Sun-Fri...Surface high pressure ridging remains near or across the
central FL peninsula for much of this period. Both the GFS/ECMWF are
coming in better line with bringing a cold front and higher precip
chances thru the area on Thu/Thu night. High pressure to the north
will follow the front across the region on Fri. Leading up to
this, ESE surface winds may veer a bit more SE/S at times and
decrease in speed as the pressure gradient relaxes a bit. This
will likely promote a better chance for patchy (dense) fog
development across the coverage warning area Sun/Mon/Tue mornings.
Periodic onshore-moving showers along the coast and an ISOLD
aftn/evening lightning storm cannot be ruled out across the
interior, though PWATs will be modest through Wed. A 20-40pct
chance for convection will exist on Sun, then a 20pct or less
chance of precip will exist thru Wed. If models remain consistent
for Thu, SCT (40-50pct) showers and ISOLD (aftn/early eve)
lightning storms will be possible. A 20-30pct chance for precip
remains in the forecast for now on Fri, but it may depend on model
consistency and whether a clean frontal passage (scouring out of
moisture) occurs from the day before.

Well above normal temperatures continue thru this period. Highs each
day in the L80s at the immediate coast and M-U80s into the
interior, with a 90F reading or two within reach. These
temperatures will flirt with records which run in the U80s to
around 90F each of these days across the interior. Overnight lows
will remain mild and continue generally in the 60s areawide.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Today-Wed...SCT showers early in the period south of the Cape
moving onshore. Persistence continues with high pressure across
the western Atlc and a trailing ridge axis initially north of the
local Atlc waters. This ridge axis will settle southward closer to
central FL Sun into early next week. Winds will be predominately
ESE-SSE at 10-15 kts with some higher gusts. Primary contribution
to wave height continues to be a 3-4 ft east well with a bit of a
wind chop added. Combined seas 3-5 ft today thru Mon and 3-4 ft
Tue-Wed. ISOLD-WDLY SCT shower chances exists for much of this
period and an ISOLD lightning storm threat (less than 20pct)
cannot be ruled out this weekend. The next front is poised to move
across the local waters Thu/Thu night with an increase in precip
chances and deteriorating marine conds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1250 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Monitoring for low CIG impacts across the interior through around
sunrise. Have maintained MVFR CIG TEMPOs at MCO/ISM/SFB/LEE,
although confidence is currently low. Onshore moving showers are
observed along the Treasure Coast with VCSH continuing through
mid to late morning. Winds subside to around 5 kts early this
morning, remaining slightly higher along the Treasure Coast. East
winds then increase to 10-12 kts late morning and through the
afternoon, again becoming locally higher and gusty at the Treasure
Coast terminals. VCSH at MCO/ISM and VCTS at LEE in the
afternoon, but the greatest chances for showers and storms should
generally be west of the terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  64  84  63 /  20  10  30  20
MCO  84  66  86  66 /  30  10  40  20
MLB  81  66  82  65 /  30  20  20  20
VRB  81  65  83  65 /  30  20  20  10
LEE  86  65  86  64 /  30  10  40  20
SFB  85  65  87  65 /  20  10  30  20
ORL  85  66  86  66 /  30  10  40  20
FPR  81  64  83  63 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Law