Wilmington, Delaware 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

535
FXUS61 KPHI 292325
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
725 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure near Long Island will move slowly northeast this
evening and overnight. A cold front will stall across the area
on Friday, with the next low pressure system tracking along it
Friday night. Sweeping cold front comes through late Saturday,
kicking the unsettled pattern. High pressure will then arrive
for Sunday and generally persist through Wednesday of next week,
bringing much quieter weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Clouds have been stubborn to clear out across most areas today
and temperatures have remained cooler than originally forecast.
Still breaks in the clouds have develop across Delmarva and
slowly improving conditions further N/E are possible into the
evening.

Tonight...a new short wave across VA/MD will move northeast
across Delmarva and south NJ overnight. Higher pops with
occasional showers/tstms expected overnight. Locally heavy rains
possible. Lows will range from the mid/upper 50s N/W to the low
60s for Delmarva and south NJ.

Friday...The shortwave moves away, but humid air prevails over
the area. Weak high pressure ridges across the area. More
scattered showers expected by afternoon. Highs will reach the
mid/upper 70s most areas. Skies will overall be mostly cloudy
but afternoon breaks in the clouds are possible. The SPC Day2
outlook has a marginal risk for severe weather across Delmarva
for Friday. Locally heavy rains are possible too.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front is expected to stall on Friday or even lift north
as low pressure develops to our southwest and rides northeast
along it. As a result, we have likely/categorical PoPs in the
grids as showers and thunderstorms are expected to break out,
especially later in the day and into Friday night. There is a
modest severe weather risk mainly across southern areas as that
area briefly gets into the warm sector being south and east of
the passing surface low. SPC maintains the MRGL risk for severe
weather, with damaging winds being the main threat, though the
thinking is there is a more widespread severe chance on Saturday
with a stronger cold front coming in. Some locally heavy rain
is also possible mainly from I-95 north and west, outlined by a
marginal risk from the WPC. There was some consideration for a
SLGT for the I-95 corridor but after some collaboration with
WPC, we decided to hold off for now. A good slug of rain should
come Friday Night, but rainfall rates right now look low enough
to prevent more widespread flooding. However, the area has seen
a good amount of rainfall lately and as we get into range with
the CAMs, some, such as the NAMNest, show a decent hit from the
I-95 corridor and points north/west. The day shift will re-
evaluate and see if the SLGT is needed. Temperatures on Friday
will mainly be in the mid to upper 70s. Lows Friday night will
be in the mid to upper 50s.

A relatively strong cold front and upper trough will dig toward the
region on Saturday, likely arriving in the afternoon at some point.
As a result, showers and thunderstorms will be likely once again.
There may be another severe weather risk with this front, with
the highest instability centered over the Delmarva peninsula.
Again, the main risk would be damaging wind gusts. Highs will
be in the lower 70s on Saturday. After the front tracks
offshore, the region will quickly begin to dry out Saturday
night. A northwest breeze will bring a notably cooler night.
Temperatures will retreat back into the 50s near and southeast
of I-95, and back into the 40s north and west.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday night... A slight chance for showers early Sunday night
across Delmarva but other than that, fair weather Sunday night,
Lows range from the low/mid 40s N/W to the upper 40s/low 50s
S/E.

Monday thru Thursday... Overall, dry weather expected with
moderating temps each day. Highs Monday mostly low/mid 70s and
by Wed/Thu highs mostly in the 80s. Temps for midweek have
trended milder than previous fcst.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR initially, then CIGs briefly lower to MVFR before
IFR/LIFR CIGs develop around 06Z. BR will also impact VSBYs. SHRA
will impact KMIV/KACY by 09Z with IFR VSBYs. LGT/VRB winds.
Moderate confidence overall.

Friday...IFR conditions will lift to MVFR, then VFR by 18Z for
all but KACY, where sub-VFR conditions will persist most of the
day. SHRA with an isolated TSRA may impact KPHL after 21Z, but
SHRA should hold off for terminals until after 00Z Saturday. Low
confidence on timing of when conditions will lift to VFR in the
morning and if conditions will lower to sub-VFR prior to 00Z
Saturday.

Outlook...

Fri night thru Sat night... Low CIGS/VSBYs much of the time with
showers and tstms expected.

Sunday thru Tuesday... Mostly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Seas on the ocean continue to subside to less than 5 feet.
Therefore, the Small Craft Advisory that was in effect until 6
pm will be cancelled.

Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels the rest of
tonight and into Friday morning. Showers and a chance of tstms
across the southern waters tonight and into Friday morning.

More SCA conditions possible later Friday into Sat with another
system expected. Gusts below SCA levels attm , but increases
possible. Rains/tstms Fri night thru Sat night.

Outlook...

Sunday thru Tuesday... Fair weather expected. Winds and seas
expected to remain below SCA levels.

Rip Currents...

There is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and
life threatening rip currents for the Jersey Shore on both
Friday and Saturday, while there is a LOW risk for the
development of dangerous and lift threatening rip currents for
Delaware Beaches on Friday and Saturday.

On Friday, winds will be out of the south at 5 to 10 mph with
breaking waves around 2 feet. On Saturday, winds turn to the
West-southwest at 10 to 15 mph with breaking waves of 1 to 2
feet.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tide levels will be elevated once again around the high tide
this evening and tonight, and some spotty minor coastal flooding
will be possible once again. However, it will not be
widespread, and if minor tidal flooding does develop along the
South Jersey and Delaware coast within Delaware Bay, it will be
brief. Will not issue a Coastal Flood Advisory.

For the Chesapeake Bay, no tidal flooding is expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...OHara
SHORT TERM...Hoeflich
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...MPS/OHara
MARINE...MPS/OHara
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...