Townsend, Delaware 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

566
FXUS61 KPHI 241021
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
621 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure continues to move across New England, but high
pressure centered near the Midwest will gradually extend
southeastward and eventually into our area late in the holiday
weekend. Low pressure tracks into the Ohio Valley while another
low tracks well to our south Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front
may then approach from the west later Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
620 AM update...
Forecast mostly on track, but large area of mid-level altostratus
has moved overhead, so have increased cloud cover for a while
this morning (so much for that mostly sunny morning).

2 AM discussion...
Today and tomorrow will feature the gradual retreat
northeastward of the low currently centered just east of Maine.
Winds will be a bit gusty again today from the northwest, but
decrease a few mph compared to yesterday, while Sunday will
feature a similar modest decrease. In addition, the chance of
showers will be mostly confined to areas north of Philly this
afternoon, and mostly to the Poconos on Sunday...a gradual step
down each day. Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday,
with a lot of 60s, 50s in the Poconos/NW NJ and near 70 far
southern Delmarva. Tomorrow we`ll add a few degrees, reaching 70
from Philly southward and around 60 in the Poconos. In between,
lows tonight will be in the 40s for all but the warmest spots
again tonight, just like they will be early this morning, though
perhaps just a degree or two warmer than early this morning.

One notable difference between yesterday and the next few days
is that we should start out with decent sunshine both today and
Sunday, but the cool air lingering aloft likely results in a lot
of cumulus/stratocumulus by the afternoon, so enjoy the morning
sun while you have it. Skies will clear quickly this evening,
however.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A surface low will be sliding east over the southeastern U.S. at
the same time that a mid an upper level trough will be digging
southeastward over the Mid Atlantic. Guidance is in agreement
now that the track will stay mostly south of our region.
However, it is close enough that there is a slight chance for
rain across portions of northern Delmarva late Sunday night into
early Monday morning which could be on the northern fringe of
precipitation with this low. Despite plenty of synoptic scale
lift, instability will be very limited (especially considering
the time of day), so don`t expect anything more than showers.

We`ll stay in the cold sector with temperatures generally
slightly below normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Starting off dry, but the best chances for widespread rain will
come with a surface low lifting from the southern Plains to the
Great Lakes region Wednesday into Thursday followed closely
behind by a mid level short wave trough and surface cold front
swinging through the region Friday into Saturday.

Given guidance differences in the timing of many of these
features, have several periods in a row of rain chances.
However, expect that within the late week period there will be
at least a few lulls in the rain, especially in between the
initial surface low progressing north of our region and before
the cold front arrives.

As the timing becomes clearer, we`ll also have a better idea on
what hazards, if any, will be possible with these systems.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR, though passing afternoon SHRA may temporarily
reduce VSBYs to sub-VFR, with best chance at KABE. Will only
include VCSH there and nothing elsewhere for now. W-NW winds 5
to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt gusts.
Moderate confidence overall.

Tonight...VFR. Winds diminishing during the evening. High
confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR. West-northwest wind gusts up to 20 knots during
the day.

Monday and Tuesday...Prevailing VFR.

Wednesday...periods of MVFR or lower possible with rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect on all waters for
today, as NW winds will increase to 15 to 20 kt with 25 to 30 kt
gusts. Seas will average 3 to 4 ft.

Winds will drop quickly below SCA levels this evening and
should remain shy of advisory criteria through Sunday. Seas 2 to
3 feet.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Tuesday...winds and seas are expected to
stay below Small Craft Advisory conditions.


Rip Currents...

There is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents today. Winds will be offshore at 10 to 20 mph.
However, with multiple swell groups (dominant 8 to 9 second
period) and 2 to 4 foot breaking waves, will keep the MODERATE.

For Sunday, winds are lighter and still offshore, with only 1
to 2 foot breaking waves. Dominant period around 8 seconds as
well. This will result in a LOW risk for the development of rip
currents.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gorse/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson/RCM
MARINE...Hoeflich/Johnson/RCM