Torrington, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

959
FXUS61 KALY 131028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
628 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will slowly approach from the
southwest over the next few days, which will bring scattered to
numerous showers at times. Temperatures will remain seasonably
mild through the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
.UPDATE...No significant changes with this update. Just made
some minor adjustments early this morning based on current obs.

.PREV DISCUSSION[0358]...A large upper level low center over
the Tennessee Valley region this morning, will slowly track
northward into the lower Ohio Valley by evening. Ridging aloft
over northern NY and New England will keep most of the
widespread/heavier rainfall associated with the upper low
suppressed to our south. However, with surface high pressure
centered over the Canadian Maritimes, there will be a
strengthening low level SE onshore flow resulting in gradually
increasing moisture through tonight. The morning hours look to
remain dry, with widely scattered light showers developing
across areas south/west of Albany during the afternoon. Showers
will tend to weaken as they encounter ridging. Temperatures will
be warm again today, with at least partial sunshine across most
of the area. Clouds will tend to thicken from SW to NE later
today. Highs expected to reach the mid/upper 70s for most valley
locations. Not much change in the pattern tonight, with
scattered showers south/west of Albany. It will be mild with
lows in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As the aforementioned upper low drifts northward across the
Ohio Valley and central Great Lakes regions, diffluent flow
aloft will result in additional showers across our on Wed.
Guidance now in better agreement regarding a likely period of
showers developing, as strengthening SE low level flow
(v-component wind anomalies of +2 to +3 STDEV) results in a
further increase in deep layer moisture (PWAT anomalies
increasing to +1 to +2 STDEV). So will mention likely PoPs for
most areas south of Albany (categorical E. Catskills) through
much of the day. Showers should be isolated/scattered in
coverage from around Albany north with upper level ridging still
hanging on. With more extensive cloud cover and showers around,
high temperatures will be cooler than recent days, with 60s to
lower 70s.

The upper low is forecast to become a more progressive open
wave through Wed night. So while it will be weakening, the
trough axis looks to be positioned just south/west of our area,
bringing some additional showers with anomalous moisture still
in place (PWAT anomalies of +1 to +2 STDEV). The highest PoPs
(likely) are for areas south/east of Albany and mainly through
the first half of the night. Rainfall amounts Wed-Wed night
don`t look overly impressive with around 0.10" to less than
0.75" south of Albany. This amount of rainfall will not result
in any significant hydrologic responses. Low temperatures will
be mild again with mainly mid to upper 50s.

The weakening upper level trough axis moves northeast across
our area on Thu, bringing widely scattered showers but not a
washout. Guidance is showing some minor instability due to
breaks of sunshine developing, so will add a slight chance of
thunder. Shear/forcing look weak so any T-storms should be non-
severe. It will start to feel somewhat humid, with dewpoints
rising into the lower 60s in valley areas. High temperatures
look to reach the upper 60s to mid 70s. It should be mainly dry
Thu night, with short wave ridging building in from the west.
Lows will continue to be mild (mid 50s to around 60F).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A warm start to the weekend with highs on Friday and Saturday
in the 70s and 80s. In addition to these warm temperatures to
start the weekend, thunderstorms have chances (15 to 45 percent)
of developing during the afternoon and early evening hours both
Friday and Saturday. Taking a deeper dive into the environment,
latest forecast model guidances have support for enough energy
to fuel storm development and clear skies to allow daytime
heating to occur. Latest National Blend of Models (NBM)
probabilities for thunder are between 30 and 40 percent. With
this information, confidence continues to increase to keep
mention for thunderstorm chances for the afternoon hours Friday
and Saturday. There is still uncertainty this far ahead on exact
timing, strength, and location of thunderstorms, especially
Saturday ahead of a cold front moving through. This cold front
is forecasted to move through Saturday afternoon and evening
helping bring cooler temperatures for Sunday and Monday.

Highs are forecasted to range in the 60s and 70s. Overnight
temperatures are on a cooling trend from ranging in the 50s and
60s to be in the 40s and 50s by Monday morning. By Sunday
morning, a surface low pressure system moves overhead and brings
chances (15 to 30 percent) for rain showers to end the weekend
and begin the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions continue for all TAF sites through 14/06Z, with
the exception of KPOU. For KPOU, MVFR conditions are forecasted
to begin during the 00z and 06z timeframe due to low cloud
ceilings and onset of rain shower activity. PROB30 group
continues for KPOU with this onset timing of showers. Another
PROB30 group for the 06z to 12z timeframe has been included for
IFR conditions as the low cloud ceilings could lower below MVFR.
For KPSF and KALB, included in the prevailing group after 08z
for MVFR conditions due to the low cloud ceilings as confidence
continues to increase for MVFR conditions between 06z and 12z.
Northeast winds increase between 12z and 18z today and continue
through 06z ranging between 6 and 12 knots. Winds begin
deceasing below 6 knots once again after 06z.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...Webb
AVIATION...Webb