Oakville, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

185
FXUS61 KALY 190754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
354 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures will occur ahead of a cold
front today. The cold front will bring scattered showers and some
thunderstorms this afternoon into early tonight across eastern New
York and western New England.  A cooler air mass builds in for
Easter Sunday with fair weather, breezy conditions and seasonable
temperatures with the next chance of rainfall arriving late Monday
afternoon into Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:

- Above normal temps this afternoon by 15-20 degrees.

- Scattered showers (30-70% chance) and isolated to scattered
  thunderstorms (15-30% chance) expected to occur ahead of a
  cold front. Some strong gusty winds possible with the
  thunderstorms.

Discussion:

As of 353 AM EDT...A warm front continues to move north of most
of the forecast area. A much milder air mass is over the region
this morning. Eastern NY and western New England will be in a
warm sector with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60F by the
afternoon as strong south to southwest flow occurs ahead of a
prefrontal disturbance and a cold front. H850 temps based on the
latest NAEFS will be +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal. The actual
values are about +10C to +13C. An initial batch of showers with
a few thunderstorms will move across the northern zones in the
late morning. They will be primarily north of the I-90 corridor.

The south to southwest winds will increase to 10-20 mph with a
few gusts to 25-30 mph. NBM probs continue to be high in the
70-100% range for max temps to exceed 75F in the lower
elevations of the Mohawk and Hudson River Valleys, as well as
the south-central Taconics and portions of NW CT. The latest
HREFs show 0-6 km shear increasing to 40-50 KT ahead of the cold
front with mean SBCAPEs in the 300-750 J/kg range. MLCAPEs from
the CAMs are generally below 500 J/kg. A few discrete cells may
form in the early to mid pm forming into a line or
broken/discontinuous line generally between 3-7 pm. The latest
SPC Day 1 has a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms for
marginal hail and wind from Albany north and west. Some taller
updrafts may occur if greater instability is realized. Some of
the CAMs like the 3-km NAMnest have sfc dewpoints in the 60s. As
the low-level winds increase to 40-50 KT (850-700 hPa layer)
some momentum transfer could occur with the convection. Gusty
winds looks like the greater threat and we can not rule out a
few damaging winds (>50 KT) with the frontal passage. The
better mid level lapse rates depart this morning.

Max temps were favored close to the NBM/EC MOS with readings
near 80F at KALB and upper 70s to lower 80s in the valleys and
60s to mid 70s over the hills and mtns. Some downsloping off the
eastern Catskills and Helderbergs may cause temps to spike up
in the Capital District.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Seasonably cool, dry and breezy Easter Sunday.

- Shower chances increase late Mon pm into Mon night with a
  20-35% chance of at least 0.25" rainfall over the southwest
  Adirondacks.

Discussion:

Scattered showers and isolated-scattered thunderstorms diminish
in the early evening especially from southern VT, the Capital
Region and the northern Catskills south and east. The cold
front slides through with cold advection and subsidence
occurring overnight. The skies will gradually clear and temps
should fall off fairly sharply northwest of the Tri Cities with
upper 20s to mid 30s over the Adirondack Park. Expect upper 30s
to mid/upper 40s over the rest of the forecast area.

Easter Sunday will feature an increase of sunshine with mostly
sunny and breezy conditions. The mid and upper level trough axis
will be moving downstream in the morning. High pressure ridges in
from the Great Lakes Region. A sfc pressure gradient will exist
between the anticyclone building in and low pressure moving
into the Canadian Maritimes. Northwest winds will be 10-20 mph
with some gusts 25-35 mph. Some fire weather concerns may arise
and see the fire wx section below. Max temps will be seasonable
in the mid 50s to around 60F in the valleys and mid 40s to lower
50s over the higher terrain.

The sfc high builds in over NY and New England and its centered
over s-cntrl Quebec Sunday night. Near ideal radiational
cooling conditions are expected with mostly clear skies and
light to calm winds with lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s. The
colder readings will be over the mtns and in the sheltered
valleys.

Mid and high clouds quickly increase on Monday, as low pressure
moves into the Upper Midwest and the western Great Lakes Region.
The 500 hPa ridge axis moves in over New England by the
afternoon. Low and mid level heights begin to fall over upstate
NY with some warm advection showers impacting locations north
and west of Albany by the afternoon. Max temps will be
seasonable again. Scattered to numerous showers overspread the
region Mon night with increased synoptic forcing ahead of the
warm front and the secondary wave of low pressure the develops
over the region in the southwest flow, as the parent or primary
low moves across southeast Ontario into Quebec overnight. Lows
will be mainly in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Isolated to scattered showers linger Tuesday morning, mainly in
higher terrain areas to the east and west of the Hudson River
Valley, as a vertically stacked low pressure system departs to
the north and east. In its wake, high pressure building in at
the surface will be met with zonal flow aloft to reinforce dry
conditions through the middle of the week. Temperatures during
this time will largely range above normal, courtesy of
increasing 850 mb temperatures, beginning in the 50s across
higher terrain to mid 70s in the mid-Hudson Valley Tuesday and
warming to the 60s and 70s by Thursday. Low temperatures will
subsequently be rather mild during this time, falling to the 30s
to low/mid 40s Tuesday night then warming to the upper 30s to
upper 40s by Thursday night.

The end of the long term forecast period has had some degree of
alignment in that both the ECMWF and GFS are now indicating showers
beginning to spread into the region Friday morning from west to
east. However, the feature responsible for these showers is still
not well resolved at this point, so slight to lower chance PoPs were
maintained regionwide. Temperatures will continue to be on the
warmer side Friday with values similar to those of Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06z Sunday...VFR conditions prevail across all
terminals this morning ahead of a slow-moving cold front. Such
conditions are anticipated to persist through much of the 06z
cycle, though some light showers or thunderstorms (KALB) could
force near to MVFR ceilings later this afternoon. Some initial
low level wind shear will gradually erode as the LLJ decreases
later this morning. Winds will remain breezy, becoming somewhat
gusty by this afternoon with sustained speeds ranging from 10 to
nearly 20 kt with gusts up to 20-30 kt.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night to Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today will be warmer with high temperatures ranging from the
mid 70s to lower to mid 80s in valley areas, with a west-
southwest wind gusting 20-30 mph at times. However, low level
moisture will also be increasing with minimum RH values of
40-60% expected and scattered showers and thunderstorms
impacting the region in the afternoon.

Sunday looks cooler, but also much drier with minimum RH values
of 20-35% and northwest winds gusting 20-30 mph, so there is an
increased risk of elevated fire weather spread and conditions
will need to be monitored over the next day.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Gant
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/Wasula