Oakville, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

160
FXUS61 KALY 142324
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
724 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low situated south and west of eastern
New York and western New England will continue to brings clouds,
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms tonight through tomorrow
with above normal temperatures.  A warm front will bring additional
showers and scattered thunderstorms on Friday.  The unsettled
weather continues into the weekend with another round of showers and
thunderstorms especially on Saturday before cooler and less humid
conditions on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 724 pm EDT...An upper level disturbance and associated
weak of surface high pressure remains situated to the south over
the mid Atlantic States. Meanwhile, ridging is just east of the
area over the western Atlantic and lifting northward towards
eastern New England. With the storm system just south of the
area, some showers have been developing and lifting northward
across southern areas this evening. Any precip has been fairly
light, with NYS Mesonet observations showing precip rates under
a tenth of an inch per hour. Most of the showers have been
impacting the mid Hudson Valley, NW CT and Catskills. Some
showers may reach the Capital Region at times, but precip will
be fairly light and spotty, especially for areas further to the
north. Otherwise, skies will be mostly cloudy and it will be
mild and muggy with temps in the 60s this evening.

The showers should decrease and be along and east of the Hudson
River Valley overnight before diminishing. Rainfall amounts
should remain light, but up to a quarter to half an inch in
portions of NW CT, the southeast Catskills and the mid Hudson
Valley. Some patchy fog may form where the rainfall occurs, as
well as partial cloudy conditions further north. Lows will be
mild in the 50s to around 60F in parts of the Hudson River
Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Chance of thunderstorms (25-40%) Fri pm into the early
  evening with a few on the strong side possible.

Discussion:

The decaying mid and upper level trough will be over NY and New
England tomorrow. A stronger wave will be ejecting into the
northern Plains. PWATs rise to 1-1.25" which are about +1 to +2
STDEVs above normal. Humidity levels increase during the day.
Some break in the clouds are possible north and west of Albany.
MLCAPE on the latest 3-km NAMnest and HRRR may reach 500-1000
J/kg. However, the 0-6 km shear continues to be weak in the
10-15 KT range. Some disorganized or loosely organized
thunderstorms or pop-up showers are possible in the afternoon
over the forecast area. The coverage may be isolated to widely
scattered. Some localized heavy rain can not be ruled out with
any thunderstorm. Temps will run above normal in the mid and
upper 70s below 1000 ft in elevation and mid 60s to lower 70s
above it.

The convective activity should crumble with nocturnal cooling
and the atmosphere stabilizing in the early evening. The trough
finally moves downstream with weak low and mid level ridging
building in. If some clearing occurs, then patchy fog may need
to be added. It will be a bit on the muggy side with lows in
the 50s to lower 60s.

Friday continues to show a lot of uncertainty in the CAMs and
short-wave guidance. SPC continues general thunder across the
area. A warm front approaches from the west in the late morning
into the afternoon associated with a strong low pressure system
over the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes Region. Scattered
to numerous showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
possible. The instability from the guidance continues to vary
with the 0-6 km shear increasing (25-35 KT) for the potential
of deep organized convection. The latest 3-km NAMnest has the
more intense convection forming sliding south and east across PA
and missing the area with isolated thunderstorms popping up
west of the Capital Region. SBCAPES on the 12-km NAM increase to
500-1500 J/kg. The amount instability is uncertain. If anything
develops, then a cluster could get going with marginal hail and
gusty winds. We will be monitoring for any strong storms later
in time. Partly sunny conditions will allow for highs int he 70s
to lower 80s with a few cooler readings over the mtn. The
showers and thunderstorms diminish Friday night with warm and
muggy conditions expected once again with mild lows in the mid
50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

    - Chance of thunderstorms (25-40%) Saturday afternoon and early
      evening.

    - Moderate confidence (45-70%)in below normal temps early next
      week.

Discussion:

The weekend opens with a H500 closed/cut-off low over the western
Great Lakes Region. The warm front to the system and a short-wave in
southwest flow aloft increases clouds and bring showers and a chance
of thunderstorms to the region.  Some of the thunderstorms could be
on the strong side depending on sfc heating and the amount of
instability in place. Surface dewpoints rise into the mid 50s to mid
60s. MUCAPE values exceed 1000 J/kg on some of the medium range
guidance and ensembles with increasing deep shear.  Also, PWATS
exceed an inch and are 1 to 2 STDEVs above normal on the latest
NAEFS. Some locally heavy rain may occur from the Capital Region
north and east within a Marginal Risk for WPC`s Excessive Rainfall
graphic Sat-Sat night.  It will be humid with highs above normal in
the mid 70s to around 80F with mid 60s to lower 70s over the higher
terrain. The cold front approaches Sat night with additional
scattered showers and cooler weather to close the weekend.  Lows
fall back into the lower to mid 50s in the cold advection with some
40s over the higher terrain.

The closed/cut-off H500 low moves over the forecast area and then
slowly moves downstream.  The cyclonic vorticity advection and a
secondary cold front will trigger isolated to scattered showers. It
will be brisk and cooler.  NBM temps were in the 60s to lower 70s in
the valleys and 50s to lower/mid 60s over the hills and mtns.  H850
temps fall about -1 to -2 STDEVs below normal by Monday morning with
the actual H850 temps +1C to +5C over the region. Lows  will be in
the 40s with some mid/upper 30s over the southern Dacks.

The week opens with mainly dry, brisk, but cooler than normal
weather with northwest aloft in the wake of the mid and upper
trough.  A few light showers/sprinkles are possible north of the
Mohawk Valley and Capital Region.  Max temps will run 10-15 degrees
below normal with 50s to lower 60s and some 40s over the higher
terrain. The instability showers decrease quickly with decreasing
winds, as some 30s are possible over the mtns with lower to mid 40s
in the lower terrain areas.  Some patchy frost may occur in some
spots.  Some ridging builds in Tuesday with continued below temps,
decreasing winds and fair weather.  Then next system approaching
from the Midwest and western Great Lakes Region brings unsettled
weather back to eastern NY and western New England with an
increasing chance of rain associated with a warm front by the mid
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00z Friday...Currently VFR conditions at all terminals,
although showers at POU for the first couple hours of the TAF
period should spread northwards an impact PSF/ALB between around
02-05z, and possibly move over GFL around or shortly after
midnight. Showers will be light with VFR to MVFR vsbys, but cigs
will trend down at all terminals within the first 6 hours of
the TAF period. Mainly MVFR at GFL/ALB, and at POU/PSF the trend
will be from MVFR down to IFR cigs. Once cigs fall to IFR at
POU/PSF, expecting IFR cigs to continue into tomorrow morning.
Some pockets of MVFR vsbys also possible due to mist with any
low stratus/IFR cigs tonight. Low confidence in exactly how long
IFR lingers tomorrow, but conditions should improve back to
MVFR by mid to late morning. MVFR cigs at GFL/ALB continue
through late morning as well before improving back to VFR.

By early afternoon tomorrow, mainly VFR cigs expected, although
isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected
to develop tomorrow afternoon. Will include VCSH groups at all
terminals to highlight this, and will include prob30 groups for all
terminals except as the probability for showers/thunderstorms is
relatively lower there. Highest chance of a shower or storm is at
POU tomorrow afternoon. Within any showers/storms, MVFR to IFR vsbys
and MVFR cigs expected, but VFR conditions should prevail outside of
any showers/storms tomorrow afternoon through at least 00z Friday.
Winds will be from the south/southeast and will generally be at 5 kt
or less tonight, increasing to 5-10 kt tomorrow afternoon, except at
PSF where winds will be 5-10 kt through the entire TAF period.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts.
NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Main