Middletown, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

721
FXUS61 KOKX 150242
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
942 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes with the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Potential light snow accumulation well NW of NYC with minimal
impacts for late tonight into Thursday morning.

2) Breezy and cold Thursday night with winds and wind chills short
of advisory thresholds.

3) Unsettled weather this weekend with potential of a coastal low
pressure Sunday into Sunday night.

4) Much colder air expected Sunday through the middle of next week
with temperatures potentially below freezing Monday through
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Mainly rain showers possible through tonight with isentropic
and low level jet lift this evening and a shortwave and
approaching cold front late tonight. Forecast soundings and
freezing level heights indicate snow starting to mix in well NW
of the city and mainly in the higher elevations near daybreak
Thursday as the cold front starts moving through. Not much
liquid equivalent precipitation left by the time profiles
support all snow. Any snow accumulation will be under a half of
an inch for well NW of the city with limited impacts for the
morning commute. Dry outside of a stray snow shower/flurry for
the interior Thursday afternoon into early evening.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Winds increase behind the cold front on Thursday with a
tightening pressure gradient. Westerly downsloping winds should
offset the cold air advection somewhat before stronger advection
begins in the afternoon to evening. Wind speeds aloft only
supportive of surface gusts below advisory thresholds
Thurs/Thursday night with wind chills falling into the single
digits for most areas late Thursday night/early Friday morning.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Low pressure over the Great Lakes and an associated upper trough
will send a cold front into the area on Saturday. The energy in the
trough is broad, but there is enough lift and moisture to support
chance probabilities for precip on Saturday. Thermal profiles are
marginal for anything frozen, but some colder air will start moving
in as the front passes across the region to support mention of some
light snow along with light rain, especially from the NYC metro on
north. Any precip will be light with little to no impacts currently
expected due to the marginal boundary layer temperatures and overall
weak system.

The cold front passes moves offshore Saturday night. Large upper
trough over the eastern US will likely amplify with potential of
energy rounding the base of the trough on Sunday. Depending on the
amplification/amplitude of the energy, low pressure may develop off
the Middle Atlantic coast. The current consensus has this low
tracking far enough east of the area for any concerns. However, some
of the 12z model guidance has trended west with the system which
would bring an increasing potential for precipitation across at
least the eastern portion of the area. This system is still 5 days
out and there are many areas of sensitivity to the overall evolution
of this potential system. For this forecast, have gone ahead and
bumped PoPs up to low chance for the eastern two thirds of the area
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Colder air should be over the
area by this time, so any precip would be in the form of snow. This
time period bears watching in subsequent forecasts.

.KEY MESSAGE 4...
A colder temperature regime begins on Sunday with highs in the lower
to middle 30s. Deep upper troughing will then persist over the
eastern US allowing for arctic air to funnel down into the region.
Highs Monday through next Wednesday should remain below freezing
with highs on Tuesday potentially not rising out of the 20s.
Nighttime temperatures will likely be in the teens at night. While
it is a bit early for specific details on wind chills, there is some
potential for winds to combine with the cold temperatures for wind
chills in the single digits to around 0 Monday night into Tuesday
night. These details will be fine tined as confidence increases with
respect to the magnitude of the winds over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure over north central Pennsylvania into central
upstate New York will track northeast through tonight, sending
a cold front across the area Thursday morning. Low pressure
continues to track northeast, away from the region, Thursday as
high pressure builds to the southwest.

Trends have become more optimistic for VFR through the
overnight with a chance of MVFR ceilings mainly late tonight
into Thursday morning, after 09Z to around 14Z. Any rain that
occurs this evening and into the overnight will be light and
scattered.

Winds SE-ESE at less than 10 kt ahead of a surface trough or
weak warm front approaching from the south. Winds will then veer
back to the SW late tonight into the early morning hours with
the approach of a cold front, and then become W with the passage
of the front Thursday morning. Gusty WSW winds develop behind
the cold front 15-20 kt G25-30 kt, with higher gusts possible
during the afternoon, with gusts peaking at 35 kt.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Chance of amendments overnight for MVFR and timing.

Timing of wind shifts could be 1-2 hours later early Thursday
morning, and onset of wind gusts could be delayed 1-2 hours.

Chances of IFR ceilings overnight have diminished, and are low.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday night: VFR. W-NW wind gusts 25 to 30 kt.

Friday: VFR. W-SW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Low chance MVFR or lower at times with low
chance of rain and/or snow.

Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in snow.

Monday: VFR W winds gusts 20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA continues on the ocean waters through tonight and Thursday,
primarily for seas through tonight, but winds ramp up on
Thursday. Gales then expected as early as around midnight Thurs
night through Friday morning, so have upgraded the previous Gale
Watch to a Warning. For the other waters, SCA for 14z Thurs
through Friday morning. SCA conds likely on the ocean Friday
afternoon through the rest of the forecast period. Elevated
ocean seas between 5-7 ft are likely to continue through Monday.
Winds on Saturday should remain below SCA levels with the next
potential period of SCA winds Sunday into Monday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to noon EST Friday for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM Thursday to noon EST Friday for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC/DS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DS