Meriden, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

914
FXUS61 KOKX 062044
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
444 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly approaches the area tonight before passing
through Saturday evening. Weak high pressure then briefly follows
for Sunday followed by an area of low pressure passing to the
south and east Sunday night into Monday. A slow moving frontal
system will then work across the area Tuesday into early Wednesday.
High pressure returns later in the day Wednesday and remains near
the region through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible over the western
and northern portions of the area this afternoon and early this
evening. A disorganized line of showers and thunderstorms over
Eastern PA is slowly making its way into the area this afternoon but
given the lack of a primary forcing mechanism and a general lack of
shear, thunderstorms are expected to be more pulse-like and short
lasting. Given the ample moisture, any thunderstorm can produce
locally heavy rainfall with localized hydrologic concerns possible
in any area that sees a slow moving or training storms. Any storm
that develops also has the potential to produce locally gusty winds
with some dry air available in the mid-levels.

As storms move closer to the coast through evening they`re expected
to weaken given that low levels are more heavily influenced by the
marine layer courtesy of the seabreeze. Lack of daytime heating
after sunset should also result in a rapid weakening of any remaining
storms by 8PM.

Residual showers remain possible through the night as the convective
debris moves eastward. Some CAMs indicate that a redevelopment
of some showers and possibly an isolated storm is possible for
eastern coastal areas as a weak surface low moves by late
tonight, but fairly uncertain in that occurrence. Left chance
PoPs to indicate the potential for some showers tonight. Lows
tonight will be in the 60s.

Ample low level moisture will also bring the possibility of low
stratus or fog development, mainly for the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front continues to make its way into the area by Saturday
morning, though ample cloud cover is expected to limit the amount of
instability that develops on Saturday. Scattered showers remain
possible Saturday morning which may expand and grow upscale into the
thunderstorms into the late morning and afternoon. Coverage should
be more widespread than Friday given the proximity of the forcing
despite less instability. Any hydrologic concerns should be fairly
localized as well with storms possibly producing rainfall rates on
the order of 1" per hour. Highs on Saturday will be in the middle to
upper 70s.

Showers and storms move eastward off the coast by evening while
dissipating. The cold front will slowly make its way through the
area so that residual showers are possible Saturday evening and
night, mainly before midnight. Lows will be in the upper 50s to
middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overall, not seeing a whole lot change in the extended period
with a broad upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest to
the East Coast. Shortwave ridging embedded within the mean upper
flow will move through the area on Sunday with weak high
pressure at the surface. The trend supports some sun the first
half of the day with mid and high level clouds streaming in from
the SW due to large scale warm advection. Blended in some
CONSALL with the NBM to show this. 12Z guidance is also
supporting this trend.

As the upper low/trough descends across the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday, the backing upper flow
will steer a weak wave of low pressure along the Mid Atlantic
coast to the south and east of the area. For the time, there is
a chance of rain Sunday into Monday, highest at night. There
remains some uncertainty with the low track with the ECMWF
showing some convection to the north of the low track across the
area. This looks to be more a result of the large scale warm
advection ahead of the digging upper trough. In addition, the
low itself could maintain enough low-level ridging across the
northeast to limit rain chances. Sunday could very well be dry.
Behind the low, Monday is also looking mainly dry with chances
of showers/embedded thunder increasing Monday night into Tuesday
as a frontal system approaches from the southwest. While the
deep-layered SW flow and wind shear increases across the area,
an onshore E/SE flow ahead of the warm front keeps the low-
levels stable with any instability elevated initially. Whether
or not the area can warm sector and destabilize ahead of the
cold front Tuesday afternoon/evening remains to be seen. The
best chance for rain will be Tuesday into Tuesday evening. The
cold front passes through Tuesday night.

The upper trough lifts out Wednesday with warming heights aloft
and high pressure for the end of the week.

Sunday through Tuesday will mainly feature weak onshore flow,
intervals of clouds, and rain chances. This will keep daytime
highs mainly in the 70s with lows warming into the lower 60s
during this time. Humidity will be on the rise as well.
Temperatures will warm Wednesday through Friday with a W/SW flow
and building heights aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A frontal boundary remains near the area through the TAF period.

VFR this afternoon and much of the night outside of any showers and
thunderstorms. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms which
could produce MVFR or lower conditions this afternoon and evening.
The most likely terminal that receives a thunderstorm this afternoon
would be KSWF. Will also have to watch thunderstorms over north
central NJ to see if they make their way into the NJ metro terminals
later this afternoon.

Forecast guidance also indicating MVFR vsbys and IFR cigs developing
overnight. Any development should occur after 06z.
There is a little concern that the guidance may be a bit too
aggressive, but more for the metro terminals and points north and
west. Chances are increasing for IFR conditions for coastal
terminals such as KISP, KBDR, and KGON. These areas are where NBM
probabilities are highest for IFR conditions. Additionally, KFOK
reported BKN005 briefly earlier this afternoon, so these conditions
are out there.

Light SE-SSW winds should turn more to the S to SSW this afternoon
around 10 kt or less. Occasional gusts between 15 to 20 kt are
possible. Winds at KEWR may remain more E than SE until this
evening. Winds become light tonight and early Saturday morning.
Winds Saturday morning should shift more to the SW then W by late
morning as the cold front slowly makes some headway through
terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for timing of shower/thunderstorm potential this
evening.

IFR conditions possible late tonight, Hughes chances for KJFK,
lowest for KEWR and KTEB.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday: MVFR/IFR and showers possible. Chance of a thunderstorms
in the afternoon.

Sunday: VFR daytime. Chance of MVFR and showers at night.

Monday: VFR. Slight chance of showers in the early morning, then
again late at night.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible with chance of showers in the
morning, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon
and evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Generally sub-SCA conditions are expected. Wave heights are expected
to slightly increase late tonight and into Saturday where wave
heights near 5 feet will be possible on the ocean zones. If
confidence in 5 foot wave heights increases, a SCA may be needed on
the ocean zones Saturday.

Thereafter, expect sub-advisory conditions through Tuesday. Waves of
low pressure passing to the south and a southerly swell will keep
seas on the ocean 3 to 4 ft. Chances increase for marginal SCA
conditions for seas around 5 ft Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Seas should then fall below SCA conditions on Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rain amounts of a half inch to inch are possible this afternoon and
evening today through Saturday afternoon, but mainly from around the
city to points north and west. The higher amounts will more likely
occur over the Lower Hudson Valley. While widespread hydrologic
issues aren`t expected, localized urban or street flooding is
possible.

No widespread hydrologic impacts otherwise for Saturday night through
Monday.

Showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night may produce at
least minor nuisance flooding. Low confidence at this time regarding
potential impacts this far ahead in time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A building SSE swell will increase to 5 ft 8-9S on Saturday.
This result in 3 to 5 ft breakers in the surf zone, likely
producing a high rip current risk. Thus, a High Rip Current
Risk has been issued for all locations along the oceanfront.

Swells diminish some on Sunday. A moderate rip current risk is
forecast at this time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005-009.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...DW/MW
HYDROLOGY...DW/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...