Security-Widefield, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

998
FXUS65 KPUB 112019
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
219 PM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions to persist, with
  increasing winds and critical fire weather conditions expected
  over the weekend.

- Critical fire weather conditions possible across southern
  portions of the region Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 217 PM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Currently...Upper ridge over the Great Basin and Four Corners
regions was producing sunny skies and warm, dry conditions across
the forecast area today. Temps as of 1 PM had warmed into the mid
60s to around 70F for the high valleys, and 70s to around 80F across
the plains. Winds for the most part have remained fairly light,
though surface winds across the southeast corner have have become
southerly and are gusting to around 30 mph.

Tonight and Tomorrow...Upper ridge slides east and flattens over the
next 24 hours, as the next incoming disturbance pushes into the
Pacific NW. Gradually increasing westerly winds tonight will keep
skies mostly clear and temps somewhat mild, with lows in the 30s for
the high valleys, and 40s to near 50F for the eastern plains. This
trend continues on Saturday, with west-southwest flow across the
entire state increasing moreso as the pressure gradient tightens.
Wind gusts across the higher terrain, and along the eastern slopes,
may reach 40-50 mph at times Saturday afternoon. The increasing
downslope flow will help boost afternoon high temps into the 70s for
the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains which is
around 25 degrees above seasonal normals.

Daily records for April 12th:

Colorado Springs: 82
Pueblo: 90
Alamosa: 74

Combined with humidity levels dropping into the single digits for
much of the plains and high valleys, went ahead and upgraded the
Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for much of the area from
10 AM to 9 PM. Those areas that are not included in the highlight
are such, due to the latest fuels info provided. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 217 PM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Saturday Night - Sunday: Heading into the later part of the weekend,
an uptick in active weather is anticipated for portions of south
central and southeastern Colorado. The southern fringes of troughing
to the north will push eastward over the area, bringing an increase
in orographic forcing. With the minor rise in orographics, isolated
to scattered light showers are expected along the higher terrain.
Elsewhere, dry conditions are anticipated to prevail, except for
Sunday night, when light showers will be possible across the plains
along and behind a cold front. In addition, fire weather will be a
concern during the day Sunday. As winds become gusty in response to
the passing wave, and humidity values fall into the single digits,
critical fire weather conditions will materialize, particularly for
the southern I-25 corridor and westward into the San Luis Valley.
With that all said though, the aforementioned cold front will play a
large role in where fire weather concerns will be greatest. If it
pushes southward early in the day, then critical fire weather
conditions will become more restricted to the eastern mountains and
San Luis Valley. If the front remains further to the north, then
critical fire weather conditions will likely expand across the
remainder of the I-25 corridor and plains. Beyond all of that,
breezy winds are expected Saturday night and Sunday, with increasing
clouds throughout the day Sunday. As for temperatures, they will
heavily depend on the timing of the cold front. If it drops south
early, then the plains will cool in comparison to Friday and
Saturday, though still remain above seasonal values, with the
elsewhere remaining above well above seasonal. If the front stays
north, then well above seasonal temperatures would be expected area
wide.

Monday - Thursday: For the rest of the next week, some active
weather remains for south central and southeastern Colorado. A messy
ridge of high pressure will develop over the area, though with weak
waves drifting over/near the region. With the ridge in place, no
major forcing is expected, and given this, dry conditions are
anticipated to prevail. The exception to this may be Tuesday into
Wednesday, as one of the waves drifts over the area and brings
elevated forcing, which may help light showers blossom along the
mountains. Otherwise, gusty winds will continue throughout this
period, with periods of mid to high level clouds. As for
temperatures, a warming trend will start behind the cold front
Sunday, with temperatures returning back to above seasonal
values by midweek. With that all said though, a cold front may
drop southward during Thursday behind a larger trough to the
east, pushing temperatures back down some, though still remain
above seasonal values.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

VFR conditions anticipated across the forecast area over the
next 24 hours, including the three main TAF sites of COS, KPUB
and KALS. Surface winds are expected to remain diurnal in
direction and generally less than 12 kts. Moore

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday for COZ220-
221-223>231.
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for COZ224-225-229-230.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MOORE