Security-Widefield, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

676
FXUS65 KPUB 211057
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
357 AM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and a little warmer today.

- Warmer and drier conditions will persist through Saturday.

- Snow will begin over Continental Divide on Sunday and spread
  eastward over higher terrain into Monday.

- Some showers will be possible for portions of the plains on
  Monday and Tuesday, then with increasing chances going into
  Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 352 AM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

Quiet weather expected through the short term as the upper ridge
builds over the U.S. Rockies.  Winds will be lighter today in and
near the mountains, and temperatures a little warmer for most areas.
With light winds, mixing will be somewhat limited even as
temperatures warm aloft.  Have cooled off high temperatures a few
degrees over the persistent snow pack areas due to the lighter winds
and meager mixing. Warmest readings will be along/west of I-25 along
the lower eastern slopes where lee troughing and westerly downslope
flow will result in best mixing. Otherwise, another cool night in
store, especially for interior valleys.  Didn`t stray far from model
blends. -KT


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 352 AM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

Friday through Saturday...

Ridging over the region will result in continued high pressure
conditions through Saturday. It will be slightly warmer tomorrow,
although still relatively cooler for portions of the plains where
there is still a snowpack present. There will be gusty winds picking
up out of the southwest with downsloping which will help to heat up
the lower elevations on Saturday, with highs getting up into the 60s
for most of the plains (still in the 50s for snowpack areas though).
There will also be some gap flow winds in the vicinity of Canon City
and Walsenburg, during the afternoon hours on Saturday as a trough
upstream begins to approach the region. With lower RH values, the
meteorological conditions will meet critical fire weather criteria
for western Huerfano County and eastern Fremont County, although
fuels are not yet critical in these areas for there to be any fire
weather concerns.

Sunday through Wednesday...

Deterministic models are beginning to resolve the longwave pattern
better with regards to this weekend through the mid part of next
week, which has a longwave trough over the western states
flattening and becoming more zonal as it moves inland and over
the inner mountain west. As a major shortwave trough begins to
move over the region on Sunday, there will be snow showers
beginning over the ContDvd on Sunday, which will be spreading
over the rest of the higher terrain going into Monday. There
will also be an associated cold frontal boundary moving down
from the north on Sunday night which will allow for temperatures
to be much cooler on Monday. Some of these showers will spill
over into the adjacent valleys and plains, although with the
rainshadow effect as westerly flow in the mid levels becomes
more pronounced, it is more likely that a majority of these
showers will be in the form of virga. This will continue into
Tuesday as well, but then a deepening of the trough going into
Wednesday will help to increase chances of precip for the plains
and help to also reinforce some colder air. The ContDvd, mainly
the central and southwestern mountains, still look to have the
highest anticipated total snowfall amounts throughout this
event, with some locations within the Sawatch Range and eastern
San Juan Mountains possibly getting close to 2 feet of snow
through the course of the 4 day period. -Stewey

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 352 AM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

VFR conditions expected at the terminals with light diurnally driven
winds under 10 kts. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...STEWARD
AVIATION...KT