Security-Widefield, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

416
FXUS65 KPUB 201718
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1118 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected both this afternoon and
  tomorrow afternoon.

- Showers and storms (likely in mtns/sctd on plains) through
  Thursday, then drying out and becoming hot into the upcoming
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Today: Sunday brings another another day of showers and storms to
portions of south central and southeastern Colorado. Southwesterly
flow will be in place over the area as a high pressure site to the
southeast. This flow will allow for persistent orographic forcing.
Along with that, moisture advection northward over the area will be
taking place along the western side of the high pressure. With
orographic forcing and moisture in place, afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop. Showers and storms are
anticipated to first develop along the higher terrain by mid
afternoon, and then drift across the valleys and plains by late
afternoon. A couple of strong storms may be possible, with strong
outflow winds up to around 50 mph the primary hazard, though small
hail and brief periods of heavy rain will be possible with any
stronger storms. Outside of that, mostly clear skies early will be
become mostly cloudy as showers and storms materialize, with winds
remaining relatively light around 10 mph. Looking at temperatures,
another hot Summer day is expected, with the plains rising into the
90s, the valleys into the upper 70s to 80s, and the mountains into
the mid 50s to mid 70s.

Tonight: active weather is anticipated for the evening hours,
with quieter conditions returning for the overnight hours.
Synoptically, flow will remain southwesterly as the
aforementioned high pressure sits to the southeast. This will
continue to allow for orographic forcing over the higher
terrain. Moisture will also continue to stream over the area
with the high pressure still in place. With the forcing and
moisture, showers and storms are expected to persist into the
evening, and spread further across the valleys and plains. With
that all said though, as diurnal instability wanes,
precipitation present is expected to dissipate through the late
evening hours, with dry conditions then prevailing during the
overnight hours. Otherwise, cloudy skies will become mostly
clear by Monday morning, with winds remaining light around 5
mph. Temperatures will again be mild for the region, with lows
dropping into the 60s for the plains, into the upper 40s to 50s
for the valleys, and into the mid 30s to 40s for the mountains.

Tomorrow: The start of the new week brings another rinse and repeat
type day for the region, with afternoon showers and storms. Flow
will maintain a southwesterly component as the high pressure
continues to sit the southeast. This flow pattern will keep
orographic forcing in place. Along with that, moisture will continue
to stream over the area. These factors are expected to allow for
another round of afternoon showers and storms. Showers and storms
are expected to blossom initially along the mountains by mid
afternoon, and then start to push across the valleys and plains by
late afternoon. Gusty outflow winds, small hail, and periods of
heavy rain may accompany any organized thunderstorms. Beyond all of
that, like previous days, clear skies early will become cloudy by
the afternoon, with winds remaining relatively light. As for
temperatures, another warm day is anticipated, with much of the
region warming to above seasonal values.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Per latest deterministic guidance, monsoon tap likely to
increase/continue through at least Thursday, then tap get pinched
off as drier air moves in from the Pacific. Temps will
gradually cool a bit region-wide Tues and Wed as more clouds
will be over the region, then temps start to ramp up starting
this weekend, with temps near/around 100F over the plains along
the Arkansas River valley by Sunday.

Per DESI statistical guidance, coolest day over the plains will
likely be Thursday, with the overall best chance of rain over the
plains on Wednesday and Thursday, hottest days will be next Sunday
into Monday. Over the mtns, Generally wet afternoon conditions
should continue through Wednesday then drying out Thursday, with
little precip into the weekend. Wettest days over the higher
terrain look to be Tuesday and Wednesday. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Mainly VFR conditions through the next 24 hours at all three
terminals (KALS, KCOS, KPUB). Shower and thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon and evening near KALS and KCOS, with
briefly reduced CIGS and VIS along with gusty outflow winds to
30 kts. At this time, thunderstorms do not look to impact KPUB,
however, westerly outflow winds could impact the terminal late
this afternoon and evening. Clearing conditions are expected
overnight into Monday morning.  Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOZLEY