Pueblo West, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

053
FXUS65 KPUB 141738
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1138 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy and cooler today with showers mainly along the ContDvd.

- Near-normal temperatures and breezy winds through the rest of the
week.

- Occasional showers over the central mountains each afternoon, with
the area slowly drying out through Saturday.

- More dry and windy conditions are expected to return
  Sunday/Monday, with the chance for more active weather later
  in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicates a broad
upper trough across the Intermountain West into the Great Basin,
with moderate to strong southwest flow aloft into the Rockies, as
100 kt jet core rounds the base of the system across the Desert
Southwest and into western Colorado at this time. The increasing
southwest flow aloft has lee troughing deepening across the I-25
Corridor, leading to breezy west to southwest winds developing along
and west of the I-25 Corridor late this evening. The breezy
conditions have also keep temperatures in the 50s and 60s through
the late evening, with 30s noted across higher terrain along and
west of the Continental Divide.

Main concern for today is the potential for strong winds as the jet
core continues to translate across the state, ahead of the upper
trough lifting out across western Colorado through the day and into
western Nebraska tonight. Some higher res guidance indicates a brief
window for mtn wave activity, with the potential for winds of 50 to
70 mph across the Southern Sangre de Cristo Mtns early Wednesday
morning. However, this does not look like the best mtn wave set up
with only weak reverse shear and a weak mtn top inversion. Will
continue to monitor this set up and may need to issue a short fuse
high wind warning if conditions warrant. Otherwise, will see windy
conditions over the higher terrain mixing down across the lower
elevations through the morning, with gusty southwest winds of 25 to
50 mph expected across the area by mid morning, with the strongest
winds likely across the southern mtns and San Luis valley, where
there could be some patchy blowing dust. Winds shift to more west to
northwest through the afternoon, as the trough axis and Pacific
front translates east. As the trough swings across the state, will
see scattered showers developing along with ContDvd, with the
potential for a few showers across the Pikes Peak region in the late
afternoon and early evening, as northerly winds develop behind the
passing system. Snow showers continue across the northern and
central mtns tonight, with some light accumulations possible across
the higher peaks north of Cottonwood Pass. Cooling aloft associated
with the passing system leads to highs in the 70s to mid 80s across
the plains, warmest the far southeast plains, with highs in the 50s
to low 60s across the higher terrain, save for 30s and 40s at the
peaks. Overnight lows will also be much cooler than previous nights,
with mid 30s to mid 40s across the plains and 20s and 30s across the
higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025

For Thursday and Friday, as the passing upper low moves off to our
northeast, a disorganized trough will continue moving through our
region, keeping west-northwest flow in place. As a result, breezy
winds and largely dry conditions will persist across the area, with
temperatures falling closer to seasonal normals. High temps on
Thursday will be in the 70s to around 80 over the plains, and in
the 60s over the high valleys. Temperatures will increase a few
degrees each day through Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, as flow aloft
begins to slowly increase and turn more southwesterly.

Spotty meteorological critical fire weather conditions are expected
each afternoon, though mainly confined to the San Luis Valley and
areas closer to the terrain and gap flow areas, though the eastern
plains may see some stronger winds on Sunday. However, current fuels
are still too green from recent rains to warrant any fire weather
highlights at this time.

Isolated to scattered showers are expected each afternoon through
Saturday, but will be confined to the peaks of the central
mountains. A few inches may fall on the peaks of the Sawatch Range,
but otherwise little to no accumulations are expected.

Starting on Sunday, models continue to resolve a closed low diving
south from the Pacific Northwest, moving west of us around the start
of next week. Strong southwest flow will set in across the region
just ahead of it, giving us another few days of hot, dry, and windy
conditions. Sunday will see even warmer temperatures, with gusty
south-southwest winds across our forecast area. As we move into next
week, the low will continue translating east, and there will be a
higher chance for more widespread precipitation over the higher
terrain. However, models still diverge quite a bit on the pathing
and timing of the low, so more details will become clear closer to
date.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24
hours. Winds will steadily increase through the early part of this
afternoon and peak mid to late afternoon, and then finally start to
lessen during the evening and overnight hours as a surface
inversion develops. Otherwise, dry conditions are anticipated,
with pockets of mid level clouds this afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...SIMCOE