Montrose, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

430
FXUS65 KGJT 121730
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1130 AM MDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mountain thunderstorm chances build each afternoon this week
  with enough moisture moving in later this week for wetting
  rains. Until then, storms that develop may produce gusty
  outflow winds.

- Above-normal temperatures return to the region for the next
  few days.

- Smoke will continue to affect areas in the vicinity of the
  Lee and Stoner Mesa fires, reducing visibility and air quality
  at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 353 AM MDT Tue Aug 12 2025

As high pressure continues to take hold of the region today,
lighter winds, warmer temperatures, and mostly dry conditions
highlight the forecast. If enough moisture lifts north toward
the Divide mountains, isolated to scattered terrain-based storms
may develop this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds and lightning
will be the main thunderstorm threats today, mainly over the San
Juans where the CAMs point to the highest probability for
thunderstorm development (30- 50% chance).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 151 PM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

The pattern Wednesday is dominated by high pressure over the Desert
Southwest keeping any moisture to the south over New Mexico and
Arizona. With the high extending up over eastern Utah and Western
Colorado, temperatures will run five to eight degrees above normal
under mostly clear skies. A trough digs south along the Pacific
Coast through the day to start pushing the high pressure east
letting a little moisture to slip in under the high for a few
isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible over the San
Juan mountains to the south. As this trough continues to dig into
Great Basin and Desert Southwest Thursday, the high slides east over
the Panhandle of Texas opening the door to limited increased
moisture moving into the region. A shortwave disturbance moving
through the trough will be enough for scattered afternoon showers
and thunderstorms over the San Juan Mountains and to the northwest
over the Uintas with isolated thunderstorms in the central and
northern Colorado mountains mostly along the Divide. These storms
will produce little if any rain, lightning and gusty outflow winds.
With yet more moisture in the region Friday and another shortwave
disturbance moving through the trough, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain of eastern Utah
and Western Colorado with numerous storms in the San Juans. Look for
cooler, near normal temperatures with the increased clouds, shower
activity and the influence of the trough pushing east over the
region. Showers will linger through the evening and overnight
period. This convection has a 50% chance of producing wetting rain
in the southern mountains and 30% chances in the central mountains,
but again, lightning and gusty winds will be the primary impacts.
Saturday will see another round of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms over the high terrain with 20-40% chances for wetting
rain before the trough moving in from the west pushes the moisture
east of the divide. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms
will be possible Sunday and Monday due to lingering moisture and
instability from the trough moving across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Tue Aug 12 2025

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Smoke from
area wildfires may briefly reduce visibilities late this
afternoon into tomorrow morning, but otherwise expect lighter,
terrain-driven winds with a few gusts up to 20 knots this
afternoon. Isolated showers are possible this afternoon around
KTEX with outflows perhaps making it to KDRO.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...TGJT