Montrose, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

763
FXUS65 KGJT 141119
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
419 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog will develop overnight in the typical fog-prone
  valleys.

- Warm and dry conditions return this weekend before the pattern
  shifts to a cooler and unsettled one with the potential for
  more mountain snow Tuesday onwards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1036 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

As our departing weather system slides off to the east, low
stratus and fog will settle in tonight in its wake. However, dry
air is progged to overwrite the moisture by midday, so areas of
fog will likely lift before noon.

High pressure brings unseasonably warm and dry conditions back
to the region this weekend leading to a rather benign weather
period. Winds increase across the high country Sunday afternoon
as an upper- level jet slides in from the northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1036 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

An active weather period is in store for the coming week
following a quiet, warm and dry weekend. By Monday, a large low
pressure trough will set up across the west with a closed low
approaching the California coast. This closed low gets absorbed
by another low dropping down the Pacific Northwest coast forming
the overall deeper trough across the west. As this happens, a
strong upper level jet will set up across SoCal and across the
Great Basin, tightening the pressure gradient and resulting in
strong southwest winds mixing down to the surface Monday
afternoon through Tuesday. Wind gusts potentially could be in
the 25 to 40 mph range for the valleys with higher gusts for the
mountains as H7 winds increase to 40 to 50 kts.

Temperatures will be warm ahead of this first shortwave trough
that will move through the base of the large scale trough Monday
night through Tuesday with some Atmospheric River moisture
moving into the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region across
our area Monday night into Tuesday as PWAT anomalies climb to
around 200 percent of normal. This starts the period of
unsettled weather with widespread mountain snow and valley rain.
Another disturbance looks to move through late Wednesday into
Thursday while strong jet dynamics remain in place through the
end of the week to support continued showery precipitation from
Tuesday onwards. Temperatures are expected to cool Tuesday
onwards with the coldest air moving in with the Wednesday
evening into Thursday disturbance. This is the system where some
lower valleys could see some snowfall. Models aren`t in the
best synoptic agreement beyond Thursday but it still looks to
remain unsettled through at least Friday.

There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with the timing of
these waves, the exact timing of the cold air as well as the
depth of these shortwave troughs which could have an impact on
total snowfall accumulations. So will need to iron out these
details as better model consensus is achieved, so changes are
expected as we get closer to these events. Confidence is
beginning to increase that we will see cooler, unsettled weather
with mountains finally getting some decent snow accumulation
Tuesday through much of the coming week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 417 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

A few pockets of lower clouds...fog and very light snow is
impacting the mountain TAFs with improvement over most of the
valley locations to VFR this morning. There is still some
possibility of fog impacting the valley locations but confidence
is fading. Terrain obscuration is likely to persist through the
morning but by this afternoon mainly clear skies and light winds
should take hold and persist through tomorrow morning.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...GJT