Montrose, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

911
FXUS65 KGJT 250435
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1035 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A surge of moisture arrives Monday and leads to an uptick in
  shower and thunderstorm coverage tomorrow...peaking on
  Tuesday.

- Several days of increased fire weather concerns arrive mid to
  late week as a large system settles over the Intermountain
  West.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

The 25/00Z H500 hand analysis map is showing a tight omega
pattern with lows off the SoCal coast and eastern Texas and high
pressure over the central/southern Rockies. We circulated just
enough moisture over a deep elevated mixed layer to create
widely scattered convection during the peak heating hours. Most
of this was in the form of virga...however a few showers and
storms popped north of I-70 and measured some precipitation.
The most noticeable feature on the map however is the anomalous
low sitting in the Gulf of AK. This large cyclone will be
driving the sensible weather over the West through much of the
coming week. As this system digs into the PacNW over the next 24
to 36 hours it will kick the SoCal low into the Southwest
tomorrow and across our CWA on Tuesday as an open wave. The
strengthening southerly flow ahead of this system will pull
SubTrop moisture across the 4 Corners region and bring an uptick
in shower and thunderstorm coverage...peaking on Tuesday as the
open wave lifts through. Overall the large scale ascent is
stronger tomorrow but much of this will be wasted on erasing the
inverted V profile. That is not to say a few of the more
organized storms will be capable of moderate to heavy
rainfall...just these will be limited. The biggest concern
remains gusty outflow winds but storms and burn scar
interactions will be closely monitored. Allegedly a
bettermoister profile on Tuesday should lead to better
coverage of storms with high precipitation rates...and models
continue to paint the Colorado mountains with the highest
amounts. By Wednesday the upstream low in firmly anchored over
the Intermountain West and the southerly fetch around this will
be tapping into drier air. This means we will be transitioning
to a warm...dry and windy regime and a quick switch back to fire
weather concerns through through the late week period. As the
low begins to open and eject northeastward by Saturday another
weak push of moisture and cooler air could ease the fire weather
threat. Of course this low is being pushed out by yet another
robust upstream cyclone dropping out of the high latitudes so
unsettled and cooler than normal trends may set up for the
start of summer.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 544 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are diminishing as sunset approaches.
Look for showers to end by about 03Z with an isolated
thunderstorm along or north of I-70 possible through this
period. A southerly flow aloft will pull mid-level clouds up
from the south overnight and tomorrow spawning showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains after 18Z favoring the
southern and central mountains, but the northern mountains will
also see isolate to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Storm
coverage will increase to more scattered conditions, more than
we saw today. Winds overnight will drop off to light drainage
wind, shifting south to southwesterly after 18Z with gusts 15 to
25 kts in southwestern CO and southeastern UT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...DB