Montrose, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

142
FXUS65 KGJT 112341
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
541 PM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record high temperatures are forecasted for tomorrow.

- Widespread wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph, if not higher, move in
  tomorrow across much of the area. These winds, along with low
  humidities, may create hazardous fire weather conditions if
  fuels are deemed critical.

- A cold front moves through on Sunday bringing light
  precipitation chances to the northern and central Divide
  mountains. No impacts expected.

- Temperatures remain above normal through the seven-day
  forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 256 PM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Hot, dry, and windy conditions highlight the short term forecast.
Satellite imagery this afternoon depicts a high-amplitude wave
pattern across the CONUS and the adjacent waters. Locally, the axis
of an upper-level ridge remains overhead leading to seasonably hot
temperatures and light winds.

This will change tomorrow as an upper-level trough off the west
coast moves into the Pacific Northwest tonight and tomorrow. It will
flatten the ridge and increase the pressure gradient leading to
widespread wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph tomorrow afternoon. These
winds will pair with the continued warm and dry conditions under
what is left of the ridge creating critical fire weather conditions
where fuels are deemed critical. This includes fire weather zone
292. As a result, a Red Flag Warning has been issued. Please see the
fire weather discussion below for more details. Avoid burning

Near-record to record high temperatures are very likely tomorrow
with forecasted values coming in 15 to 20 degrees above normal for
mid April. The current record sits at 82 for Grand Junction.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 256 PM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

The aforementioned upper-level trough and its attendant cold front
will move through during the day Sunday. A narrow band of moisture
will keep precipitation light across the northern and central Divide
mountains as the front moves through. Despite the front, the Four
Corners region will continue to experience hot, dry, and windy
conditions with near-critical to critical fire weather concerns.
Afternoon highs Sunday will drop but still remain about 5 to 10
degrees above average for both Sunday and Monday.

Another ridge builds in for much of next week leading to daily high
temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal through at least Friday.
Periods of moisture advection from the southwest are possible during
this timeframe leading to periodic precipitation chances each
afternoon. Stay tuned for more details next week as the models come
into better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 535 PM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Light terrain driven winds and clear skies will prevail tonight
at the terminals. A pattern shift Saturday will bring gusty
southwesterly winds to the region ahead of a frontal boundary.
This will result in winds gusting 25 to 35 mph around the
region with a few localized stronger gusts around southwest
Colorado and southeast Utah. Winds will remain strong through
the close of this TAF period and likely into Saturday evening.
Mechanical turbulence and periods of LLWS can be expected
Saturday morning as stronger winds aloft precede the increase
in surface winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 256 PM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Anomalous hot...dry and windy conditions will develop on Saturday
ahead of a cold front moving through early Sunday. The Hot Dry Windy
Index shows high probability(>75%) of widespread critical fire
weather conditons developing over eastern Utah and western Colorado.
Rapid fire spread could occur where fuels are susceptible. At the
moment this is in the North Fork Gunny/Unco/Lower Gunny Valley area
where a Red Flag Warning has been issued for Zone 292. Changing fuel
condition updates would be welcome as the new fire season has kicked
off. Critical fire weather conditions lessen on Sunday as cooler air
moves in up North but will be present across much of southern
Colorado and Utah.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for COZ292.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...15