Lafayette, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

599
FXUS65 KBOU 222038
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
238 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler with more moisture and scattered to likely showers and
  thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday.

- Drier Thursday through Sunday with warming temperatures and only
  isolated late day showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

The northerly surge came through about half the plains earlier
this morning is now moving back northward being pushed by
southwesterlies. There is also another boundary pushing westward
east of the Metro Area, with a Denver cyclone circulation over
and just east of DIA.  Not a cloud in the skies over the plains,
yet plenty to tend to.

Models keep pretty strong southwesterly flow aloft over the CWA
tonight through Wednesday. In the lower levels, models bring that
long advertised cold front into across the across the foothills and
plains by 06Z tonight.  Then the low level winds have an eastern
component to them through Tuesday.  As far as synoptic energy is
concerned, there is weak upward QG vertical velocity progged for the
CWA now through Wednesday evening.

Tonight`s front will keep the 90 degree temperatures readings at bay,
at least through Wednesday, perhaps Thursday too.  Highs will be in
the 70s for the plains Monday, and lower 80s Tuesday, then 70s again
Wednesday.

Moisture increases Monday with precipitable water values progged in
the 0.50 to 1.30 inch range for the foothills and plains by
afternoon. This continues into Tuesday evening, then the better
moisture gets into the mountains too.  Models show decent
instability on the CAPE fields during the late day periods Monday
through Wednesday.  Lapse rates aren`t bad on the cross sections
either. The QPF fields show measurable rainfall for the eastern
two-thirds of the CWA during the late day periods through Wednesday
as well. The 30%-70% pops look good for the high mountains,
foothills and plains all three days.

For the later four days, Thursday through Sunday, a warmer drier
period of weather is expected, with flat upper ridging over the
CWA and pretty light flow aloft.  The best chances for showers
and thunderstorms will be over the high mountains with 10-20%
chances late in the day. The plains can expected 0-10% chances for
storms all four days. High temperatures, over the plains will be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s all four days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/...
Issued at 1207 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Most of the models are still showing decent southwesterly winds
early this afternoon for DIA. However, a northerly push came
through just before 14Z this morning that models did poorly with.
So not quite certain, when the southwesterlies will kick in at the
big airport; will go with 21Z for now. The long advertised cold
front for tonight is now progged to get into DIA by about 04Z with
light northerly flow behind it most of the night. For
clouds/ceilings, it will take a while for it to moisten up. Will
go with SCT-BKN030-040 from 08Z/09Z onward through much of Monday
morning. Some models do show lower Stratus and BKN-OVC ceilings;
we`ll see.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ214.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION....rjk
AVIATION......rjk