Grand Junction, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

408
FXUS65 KGJT 201123
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
523 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue today and into
  the work week around the region.

- Flash flooding remains a threat for burn scars and flood prone
  areas.

- Smoke will continue to ebb and flow around the forecast area
  along with wildfire activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 418 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Satellite imagery shows the West Texas high anticyclonic flow
continues to dominate the weather pattern from the Desert Southwest
up into eastern Utah, Colorado and farther east into Kansas, Missouri
and Arkansas. Over the past day or two, drier air off the Pacific
has mixed into the southwesterly flow to break up/reduce the
monsoonal moisture moving up from Mexico resulting in eastern Utah
and Western Colorado seeing a reduction in convective activity,
i.e., only isolated showers and thunderstorms across the northern
areas and more scattered across the San Juan Mountains. Of interest
is an MCC that has moved up from the southern Gulf of Cortez into
the northern Sonoran Desert along the Southern US Border over the
last 24 hours. This may be a feature to watch for overnight tonight
into Monday bringing significant monsoonal moisture into the region.
Most models don`t seem to be paying attention to this, but the NAM
and HRRR are pulling this north into eastern Utah and northwestern
Colorado Monday morning with a band of showers moving through the
area. The flow is too weak to say for sure what will happen as minor
variations can significantly change where this goes, e.g., an
alternative from the synoptic models pushes this moisture to the
southeast of the CWA into New Mexico and southeastern Colorado as
the trough from the Pacific Northwest eases south over the Western
States. But then, looking at the watervapor imagery, this moisture
could plow right through the heart of the CWA. Watch for updates on
this with the afternoon forecast package today.

So, for today given all the definite maybes above, look for
temperatures running near normal to a few degrees above normal
across the region with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing through the afternoon hours in the
mountains along the Divide. Can`t rule out a stray thunderstorm
forming on the terrain to the north and west such as on the
Uncompahgre, Grand Mesa, Flat Tops, Tavaputs and Uintas. Even the
Abajo and La Sals could see some brief action today. Then overnight
into tomorrow morning a band of showers with embedded thunderstorms
may move up through eastern Utah and northwestern Colorado, with
isolated to scattered thunderstorms forming on the terrain through
the afternoon across the region with more scattered to numerous
storms along the Divide and in the southern mountains. With the
increased clouds and shower activity, temperatures will be slightly
cooler tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 356 PM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Upper-level heights increase heading into the new week as broad high
pressure builds over the Plains. This keeps eastern Utah and western
Colorado in a southwesterly flow pattern for the foreseeable future.
There aren`t any strong signals for notable moisture pushes this
week, but the surface high seems to pull in enough moisture along
the Divide to keep afternoon thunderstorm chances in the forecast
each day over the high terrain. The EC ENS is notably drier compared
to the other global ensembles with PWATs 50% of normal moving in
towards the end of the work week, so this will be something to watch
as the week progresses. Storms that develop will be capable of
producing gusty outflow winds and small hail at times. Otherwise,
anticipate seasonable conditions with gradually warming
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Expect VFR conditions and generally light winds through the TAF
period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop over
the higher terrain between 18Z and 00Z capable of producing
outflow winds gusting over 30-40kts. KTEX will most likely see
impacts from this convection, but most TAF sites across the
region could see outflow winds. A band of showers will move up
through eastern Utah into northwestern Colordo after 06Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...DB