Grand Junction, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

830
FXUS65 KGJT 040451
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
951 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The Gunnison Valley and, to a lesser extent, the upper Yampa
  will continue to run colder than the rest of the forecast area
  due to strong low-level inversions.

- Expect mostly sunny skies and a gradual warming trend this
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 241 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

Another day, another rinse and repeat forecast.

Model guidance continues to struggle with temperatures in snow-
covered valleys producing temperatures upwards of 30 degrees warmer
than real-time observational data. We continue to manually lower
both daytime and nighttime temperatures but confidence in our
temperature forecast remains low in these valleys, most notably
the Gunnison Valley. Slight moderation is anticipated over the
next 36 hours; however, cool conditions will persist.

Elsewhere, daytime temperatures remain 5-10 degrees above normal
tomorrow with light, terrain-driven winds and mostly sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 241 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

Models continue to show good agreement with the Rex blocking pattern
remaining over the Great Basin and Desert Southwest into Saturday
keeping mostly clear skies across eastern Utah and Western Colorado
going into the weekend. There is still good agreement among the
models with a deep cold low over the Bearing Sea Wednesday finally
ejecting into the Gulf of Alaska Friday and descending southeast
through the Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West Saturday
into Sunday before tracking east out onto the Plains Monday into
Tuesday, but there is significant dispersion among the ensemble
members and the discriminate models on the timing of this system.
Look for mid to high clouds to start moving into the region from the
northwest late Saturday ahead of this system. Though this system
will bring a return of colder air and snow showers to the higher
terrain across the region, the only source of moisture is what can
advect south with the system. Hence, at this time expected snow
accumulations will be on the light side with generally a few inches
possible across much of the region above about 6,000 ft and up to
six to ten inches on the higher peaks across Colorado. Temperatures
will be cold enough to even see snow flakes in the lower valleys,
but no accumulation is expected at this time. Stay tuned for updates
on this. Look for light snow showers developing over the northern
mountains through the day Sunday especially along the Divide,
increasing and spreading south into the central mountains overnight
Sunday reaching the southern mountains by Monday morning. This
system will push east Monday with showers diminishing through the
afternoon and ending Monday night.

Temperatures will generally run eight to ten degrees above normal
Thursday through Saturday with the exception of the higher mountain
valleys like Gunnison where there are currently strong inversions in
place. Sunday will see temperatures drop about five degrees with the
cloud cover restricting the diurnal heating. A cold front will move
through with gusty northwest winds some time between Sunday
afternoon and Monday dropping temperatures another five to eight
degrees. This cold pool of air will likely hang around for a few
days with a gradual warming Tuesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 942 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

High clouds will move through the area throughout the forecast
period. Winds will remain generally light and terrain driven.
VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...TGJT