Erie, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

331
FXUS65 KBOU 070604
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1104 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slick roads will remain possible through early Saturday morning
  as temperatures drop well below freezing.

- Warming trend returns Saturday, and continues through
  Monday/Tuesday. Dry weather favored for the foreseeable future,
  aside from slim (20%) chances for light mountain snow showers
  Tuesday-Wednesday,

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 1101 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

Dry NW flow aloft will be over the area Sat thru Sun.  Main concern
for Sat will be high temps where decent snow cover exists. Naturally
haven`t seen a snow cover map, but based on snow reports, have kept
highs in the lower to mid 40`s where deeper snow cover resides.
Meanwhile, where lower snow cover exists highs may reach the lower
50s.

By Sun, a sfc lee trough will develop east of the mtns with
downslope low level flow.  This will allow for warmer temps Sun aftn
as readings rise into the upper 50`s to mid 60`s across the plains.

For Mon and Tue, the flow aloft will become more westerly with only
some higher level moisture embedded in the flow.  Downslope low
level flow will remain in place on Mon which should allow for highs
in the upper 60`s to mid 70`s over the plains.  On Tue, the
downslope component will weaken as a cold front moves across the
plains by late aftn.  As a result, highs may cool a few degrees but
readings will still be above normal.

By Tue night into Wed the flow aloft will become more NW.  The cold
will move across all of the plains Tue night and bring cooler temps
for Wed as highs drop back into the 50`s over nern CO.  The last few
nights the ECMWF and GFS have had differing solution as to how much
moisture will be embedded in the flow.  Ensemble data from the ECMWF
has shown better moisture while ensemble data from the GFS has been
drier.  As a result, the ECMWF would produce some light precip
mainly over the higher terrain while the GFS basically has no
precip.  For now will leave what the blended solution has for pops
and keep a chc of light precip over the higher terrain.

Looking ahead to Thu and Fri, mainly dry WNW flow aloft will be over
the area as a sfc lee trough redevelops east of the mtns.  This will
lead to increasing downslope low level flow with warmer temperatures.
In addition, will likely see increasing winds over the higher terrain
and near the foothills.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday/...
Issued at 1040 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

Skies were clearing in the wake of the most recent storm, and VFR
will persist with mostly clear skies through this TAF period.

Winds are starting to transition to normal drainage winds as skies
clear, and southwest winds can be expected by 09Z at speeds less
than 10 kts, holding through at least 18Z. Those winds should then
turn more southerly and hold through most of the day Saturday as
the recent snow cover will prevent a normal diurnal wind
transition. Due to the snow cover, there`s a chance of a more
southeasterly wind direction 21Z-24Z, but overall little if any
impact to landing ops. Then, slightly enhanced south/southwest
winds 10-15 kts can be expected after 02Z Sunday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RPK
AVIATION...20