Commerce City, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

899
FXUS65 KBOU 230207
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
807 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increased chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, a few
  could be severe over the eastern plains.

- Active pattern expected for most of the forecast period, with
  daily chances of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
  Snow levels will remain above 9,000 ft elevation.

- Well above normal temperatures possible this weekend. Critical
  fire weather conditions will be a concern on Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 805 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Widely sct high based showers along with some thunder linger over
the plains early this evening.  Based on current trends, expect
most of this activity will end around midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 330 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Widely scattered showers have formed over the higher terrain and
along a weak convergence boundary to the east of Denver. Airmass
is slightly unstable with SBCAPE of 100-300 J/kg. It is dry at the
surface with dew points in the upper teens to 20s across most of
the area. A few lower 30s are over the far northeast corner. Not
much moisture to fuel the showers, so we are still expecting
mainly gusty winds to 30 mph and little to no rainfall from the
showers. By mid to late evening, the showers will come to an end
as the airmass stabilizes.

A weak cold front drops south across the area late tonight and
early Wednesday morning. This will bring northerly winds and
increase low level moisture. Dew points climb into the 30s behind
the front and as low level moisture continues to increase and the
dew points will reach the 40s over most of northeast Colorado. The
NAM seems to have too much low cloud and too cool of temperatures
for Wednesday, which is limiting the instability from the model.
If temperatures reach the mid to upper 60s across northeast
Colorado, SBCAPE will be 400- 1000 J/kg with the highest CAPE over
the eastern plains. There might be enough shear and instability
for a few strong to severe storms. Best chance for the
stronger/severe storms will be across the eastern plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 330 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2025

A weak shortwave trough will move across northeast Colorado
Wednesday evening and any storms that develop during the afternoon
will continue moving east-northeastward. There are relatively high
PoPs and QPF for the evening hours especially across the far
northeast corner as storm congeal over the area with the best
moisture. Some localized half inch rainfall totals are possible.
In the evening hours, conditions become stable quickly so any
storms that may be producing large hail will weaken to below
severe limits after sunset.

On Thursday, lee cyclogenesis over southeast Colorado will keep
moderate easterly winds over northeast Colorado. As a result, it
will be a cool and cloudy day and highs across the plains could
stay in the 50s. Persistent southeast flow aloft will advect an
elevated mixed layer over our forecast area. This will create
instability and showers and storms are likely to develop as a
result. The best coverage will be over the foothills and adjacent
plains for these storms. Some storms may produce hail but the
instability does not look to be strong enough for severe storms to
form.

Friday will have a similar setup to Thursday although there will
be ridging developing aloft which will limit the instability and
forcing. Therefore, lower coverage of showers and storms are
expected along with continued cool temperatures.

Ridging will strengthen on Saturday and Sunday ahead of an
approaching cut-off trough over the Intermountain West. Strong
south-southeast winds will form on Saturday across the plains
warming temperatures well into the 70s. On Sunday, surface winds
turn to the south-southwest which will create warmer and drier
conditions. Given the strength of the winds (gusts around 40mph)
and low relative humidity (around 10-15%), there will be critical
fire weather concerns across the plains, foothills, and South
Park.

As the trough moves overhead Monday and Tuesday, cooler
temperatures will return with a chance of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday/...
Issued at 521 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2025

A weak boundary was over DIA with E or SE winds south of it and
N or NW winds north of it. Boundary has a slow NW push so winds
may eventually go E or SE by 01z.  Winds will then do more south
by 04z. Around 09Z should see a front move across with north winds
developing. On Wed, light NW to N winds will become more easterly
by 20z. There will be a chc of tstms by 21z with gusty winds
possible from the activity.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Danielson
AVIATION...RPK