Colorado Springs, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

799
FXUS65 KPUB 241008
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
308 AM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds increase today. The strongest winds will be over the
  southeast mountains and adjacent plains into the afternoon.

- Light snow returns to the Continental Divide today and
  tonight.

- Snow will continue over the higher terrain, mainly the
  Continental Divide, on Monday.

- Some showers will be possible for portions of the plains on
  Monday and late Tuesday, then with increasing chances going
  into Wednesday.

- More significant snow will begin over the mountains by late
  Tuesday through Wednesday.

- Cooling trend throughout week; cold day for "Turkey
  Day"...although drying out with below average temperatures in
  place through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 302 AM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

Currently...Brisk west to southwest flow aloft was in place across
the region, with a band of mid and high level cloudiness associated
with an upper shortwave pushing into the western half of CO. Gusts
of 30-40 mph were being reported at high elevation sites, and up to
20 mph at some of the lower elevations. Temps as of 2 AM are all
over the board due to the winds, with teens and 20s for the San Luis
Valley, and 30s up to around 50F for most other locations. Where
winds are blowing, the lower levels are staying mixed and much more
mild.

Today...Strong west to southwest flow aloft will continue across the
Four Corners region through the short term, and will help produce
one more warm day for much of the forecast area. However, what at
first looks like a longwave trough covering much of the western US
is actually comprised of two separate low pressure systems - one off
the Pacific NW coast, and another tracking eastward across Canada
just north of MT. A shortwave rotating around the Canadian low will
provide the dynamics to tap into available moisture and bring snow
back to the Continental Divide starting this morning. 2 to 4 inches
of new snow will be possible across the central mts today, with just
a dusting across the southwest mts. Plan on highs in the 40s for the
San Luis Valley, mid 40s to mid 50s for the Upper Arkansas River
Valley, and mid 50s to upper 60s for the plains.

Tonight...The Canadian low will continue pushing east slowly, and
snowfall will continue for the Continental Divide through the
evening. New snow amounts tonight will range from 1 to 3 inches for
the central mts, and around an inch for the southwest mts. This
northern low will also force a cold front south into eastern CO, and
current timing has this front crossing the Palmer Divide tonight
between 7 and 9 PM. Look for winds to shift to a north to northeast
direction and get gusty at times as colder air surges southward.
There is also an isolated chance for some very light snow across
Teller County and northern El Paso County tonight after frontal
passage, but snow amounts currently look to be less than an inch.
Look for overnight low temps in the teens to lower 20s for the high
valleys, and 20s to around 30F for the plains. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

Monday...

As the flattened longwave trough continues to move over the area
with westerly flow continuing in the mid to upper levels, occasional
snow over the higher terrain will also persist throughout most of
the day on Monday, especially over the ContDvd, although it will
begin to taper off by later in the evening with a break in the
precipitation Monday night through earl Tuesday morning. Some of
these showers could spill over into the adjacent valleys and plains.
Temperatures will be notably cooler due to the passage of an
associated frontal boundary during the late evening on Sunday from
the first major shortwave trough propagating over the region. Along
this boundary, there will be some very light showers over the Pikes
Peak Region, and Palmer Divide, which may be too night to make it to
the surface and should not be an issue. Winds could also become a
little gusty out of the northeast over the plains behind the front
during the early morning hours but will diminish throughout the day.
Highs are expected to only get up into the 40s for the plains and
lower valleys, and generally in the 20s and 30s for high country.

Tuesday through Wednesday...

There will be somewhat of a break in the precipitation during the
earliest of hours on Tuesday with weak ridging moving overhead in
wake of the next major shortwave trough upstream. This trough will
be moving in over the region by later in the day and allowing for
snow to return to the mountains beginning by later in the morning
(mainly ContDvd), which will increase in intensity going into the
overnight hours and on into Wednesday. There will be a deepening of
the trough on Wednesday and will take on a sharply positive tilt,
which will allow for a reinforcement of colder air behind the
associated low pressure system and also increase the probability of
precipitation over the plains. With downsloping winds increasing out
of the southwest, the lower elevations will warm up quite nicely on
Tuesday, and there could be a few locations getting up into the low
60s for the southeastern plains.

The most challenging aspect of this system will be the snow level,
which looks to hover right around 6,000 to 8,000 feet for a majority
of the day and could allow for just a rain/snow mix for much of the
plains (including the Springs). There could still be some better
snow accumulations for the Palmer Divide, and snow levels will
continue to drop and change precip over to snow for the rest of the
plains by later in the evening. Even after such time, snowfall
amounts do not appear to be of much significance, maybe just a
couple of inches in the Springs, and lesser amounts for Pueblo.
Where the models could under-perform would be the Wet Mountains,
which may end up receiving more than what is currently in the
projected snowfall amounts for that area, based off of good lower
level northeasterly upslope flow. There is still time to fine tune
the details of this system as deterministic model guidance is
continuing to resolve this feature better, and as we get closer to
this period in the forecast. As it stands, it appears that the
highest snowfall amounts of up to 3 feet possible throughout the
entire event (Monday through Thursday morning) will still be within
the Sawatch Range and eastern San Juan Mountains.

Thursday through Saturday...

Deterministic models have tightened up in agreement with the
progression of the major shortwave, which will be exiting fairly
quickly and only leaving some lingering snow showers over portions
of the higher terrain with clearing skies elsewhere. There will be a
brisk and chilly northerly wind for your Thanksgiving day, and highs
will likely not make it out of the 30s for the plains. As the
longwave trough continues to advance eastward and deepens over the
eastern CONUS, mid to upper level northwesterly flow will persist
over the region and keep temperatures below average through
Saturday. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions also look to remain
in place throughout this period in the forecast.   -Stewey

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

Strong west to southwest flow continues across the forecast area
today, with snow returning to the Continental Divide. VFR conditions
are anticipated for much of the area, including the three main TAF
sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. The exception will be the mt passes of
the ContDvd, where IFR to LIFR conditions are expected to develop
starting at 15z due to snow and blowing snow. For the three TAF
sites, expect brisk W-SW winds developing by 16z with gusts of 25-30
kts probable. A cold front is expected to cross the Palmer Divide
this evening, with frontal passage at KCOS between 01-03z and KPUB
02-04z. Plan on lowering cigs and gusty N-NE winds with frontal
passage. There is an isolated shot for some VCSH just north of KCOS
after frontal passage tonight but confidence is low so will not
mention in the TAF.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STEWARD
AVIATION...MOORE