Castle Rock, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

198
FXUS65 KBOU 141751
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1151 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy today with showers and thunderstorms over northern areas
  of the plains by mid to late afternoon. Wind gusts from 55 to
  65 mph may occur with the stronger storms.

- Although very windy conditions and low humidity levels will
  occur over the Palmer Divide and east central plains this
  afternoon, recent green up may decrease the fire danger
  somewhat.

- Potential for strong winds in and near the foothills late
  tonight through mid morning on Thursday.  A few gusts from
  70 to 75 mph may occur in the normal windy areas.

- Increased shower and thunderstorm activity expected again
  starting Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Today Through Thursday Morning/
...Issued at 316 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025

A complex upper level trough will move across the the central and
nrn Rockies today through tonight.

Things to watch include the following:

1. Potential for strong wind gusts associated with late aftn/early
evening showers and tstms across nrn portions of the plains.  Hi res
data has been very consistent showing a band of 50-60 mph winds,
with a few gusts from 65-70 mph, moving across portions of nern CO
from nern Weld county into Morgan county and points eastward. In
addition, certainly can`t rule out a few gustnadoes occurring along
the leading edge of the activity as well.

2. Elevated fire conditions will occur across the Palmer Divide
and east central plains this aftn due to gusty SW winds and low
humidity. However, green up has begun which may help reduce the
potential fire threat.

3. There appears to some threat for a brief period of strong winds
late tonight thru mid morning on Thu, in and near the base of the
foothills, as favorable subsidence develops along with with cross
barrier flow in the 45-50 kt range. Confidence level isn`t high
enough to issue a High Wind Watch, however, wouldn`t be surprised
to see a few wind gusts from 70-75 mph between 5 am and 9 am Thu
morning in the normal windy areas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday/...
Issued at 1116 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025

Gusty northerly winds should continue for the next hour or so
before transitioning to ESE briefly around 20Z. There is a chance
for a brief period of SW winds with gusts up to 25kts for APA and
DIA between 21-22Z. Confidence is high that a cold front will
push through after 22Z with strong WNW winds gusting up to 40 kts
and showers in the vicinity. There is a small chance some showers
could make it to DIA between 00Z and 01Z, however confidence is
low at this time, so added PROB30 in the TAF. By 01Z, winds should
become more northerly, with gusts up to 25 kts possible through
03Z. Winds will return to drainage overnight. By 15Z (slightly
earlier for BJC and APA) strong westerly winds are expected,
gusting up to 25 kts.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RPK
AVIATION...Ideker