Willits, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

146
FXUS66 KEKA 210627
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1127 PM PDT Tue May 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions expected through Wednesday beneath
high pressure. Upper level disturbances possible late this week and
weekend with cooling and potential for light rain.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly clear skies will continue overnight after a warm,
breezy day. Northerly wind gusts along coastal headlands will
gradually diminish overnight, turning northeasterly and keeping the
marine stratus layer at bay along the northern Humboldt and Del
Norte Coasts. Low stratus ceilings are more likely to develop around
Humboldt Bay and the Eel River Valley overnight.

Wednesday still appears to be warmest day of the weak as high
pressure continues to build ahead of an approaching upper shortwave.
Warm and dry conditions with highs in the mid to upper 80`s are
expected across the interior while the coast is slightly dampened by
marine stratus. Hottest temperatures will be in the mid 80`s in UKI
and Covelo. RH values will dip into the 20-30% range east of the
Coast Ranges. Breezy conditions with 10 to 20 mph gusts possible in
UKI Wednesday afternoon will enhance fire weather conditions, but do
not meet Red Flag criteria, especially with current status of
fuels.

Cloud cover will increase Wednesday night into Thursday an upper
shortwave and weak surface low clips northern California. NBM still
only holding 10 to 20% chance of rainfall in far northern Del Norte
County, mostly north of the Oregon border. The forcing of this
system may be enough to allow drizzle to develop within the marine
stratus layer. Thursday and Friday broad/weak troughing will drift
by to our north, but will not have much more effect than mid level
cloud cover and cooler temperatures, especially in interior valleys.
High amplitude ridging expected to return Saturday and Sunday,
allowing temperatures to briefly rebound into the 70`s and 80`s -
minor heat risk is possible. Long range model clusters becoming more
confident in lowering upper heights overnight into Monday, although
rainfall potential is still very uncertain.



&&

.AVIATION...Overall wind speeds/gusts will decrease with time
overnight, with a secondary peak occurring close to 22Z Wednesday
along the coast. Even at UKI wind gusts in the afternoon are
forecast by the NBM mean at 18 KTS from 300 degrees. The greatest
chance of LIFR ceilings along the coast at CEC will be between 11Z
and 15Z with a 30% chance of LIFR ceilings. Lower than VFR
ceilings are even more favored after 00Z Wednesday (except for
LIFR) with a 50% chance of ceilings below 2K feet between 03Z and
06Z Wednesday at CEC (40% at ACV). NBM advertises a 20% chance of
light precipitation Wednesday afternoon/evening. Wind gusts up to
20KTS from around 300 degrees are still within the first standard
deviation from the NBM at CEC near 22Z. There is also about a 30%
chance of MVFR visibility along coastal terminals 12-17Z
Wednesday, but not strong enough of a signal to throw into the
forecast for now. /MH



&&

.MARINE...Hi-res models predict north wind gusts to 34-36KTS
overnight for over half of the area of the southern outer waters,
with the typical fan of stronger winds south of Cape Mendocino, thus
the gale warning will persist into Wednesday morning, with a small
craft advisory likely to follow up on Wednesday with continued steep
waves. Coverage appears minimal to support a gale warning for the
northern waters at this time. Steep northerly waves of 6 to 8 ft in
the northern waters and 9 to 11 feet in the southern waters on top
of a NW swell around 7 to 9 ft will yield combined wave heights of 9
to 11 ft in the northern waters and 11 to 14 ft in the southern
waters tonight through Wed AM. Small craft advisories are in effect
and inexperienced mariners should avoid going out in these wave
conditions. Seas are forecast to remain higher and steep on
Wednesday due to this same wave combination, though northerly winds
should be less than yesterday. Wind and waves are forecast to ease
toward the end of the week and perhaps into the weekend. It will not
take much of a gradient for wind gusts to reach 25-30 kt and for
steep wind waves to reach 6 ft for the southern waters and
advisories for small craft may still be warranted. A couple of long
period swell groups arrive over the weekend; one from the SW and
another from the WNW. These swell groups do not appear all that
energetic to pose a moderate or extreme risk for sneaker waves at
least in our waters over the weekend. It will need to be monitored
for possible beach hazards for S and SW faces shores. Otherwise,
quieter and fairly tranquil marine conditions are expected over the
holiday weekend. DB/MH


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ470.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka

For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png