Westwood, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

967
FXUS65 KREV 112121
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
121 PM PST Wed Dec 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* Fast moving storm to bring light snow to mountain and foothill
  areas tonight into Thursday, with travel impacts for the
  Thursday morning commute.

* Wetter, warmer, and windier storm for Saturday, with mountain
  travel impacts from snow likely into the nighttime hours. Light
  rain and snow showers Friday and Sunday.

* Possible third storm in the sequence late Monday into Tuesday
  but mixed confidence on snow vs rain vs wind impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* Tonight into Thursday morning is likely (70%+) to see impacts
  to travel and the morning commute from light snow in the
  mountains and W Nevada foothills. Quick moving storm limits
  accumulations, and they`ve trended down slightly, but cold
  enough for road issues. 70-80% odds for at least 2" for areas
  like Mammoth Lakes, Tahoe City, and Truckee but dropping to
  20-40% for 4". Lower down, 10-20% chance of seeing 0.1-0.2" snow
  in W Nevada cities along 395, with 20-40% odds in foothill
  areas such as Virginia City and Stead. So might be a good
  morning to wake up early, just in case.

* Warmer and wetter storm for Saturday, with snow impacts mainly
  in mountain areas. Some trends in the latest NBM guidance to
  monitor: 1) Slightly cooler and lower rain-snow lines yielding
  more snow potential for mountain communities such as Truckee,
  Tahoe (50th percentile 2-3" but 90th is 7-9"). Pretty healthy
  ECMWF EFI`s for snowfall from Tahoe northward - best risk for
  heavy snows. 2) Breezier with more shadowing east of the Sierra,
  so we could see travel issues due to wind for road/air travel
  (60-80% chance of gusts 50+ MPH at Reno, Lee Vining, Hawthorne).
  ECMWF EFI`s for wind have trended up, which is a signal we
  monitor for those windy days.

* Outside of these storms, hit and miss light rain/snow showers
  are expected Friday and Sunday, but impact potentials don`t
  appear significant except Sunday morning could see residual
  mountain road issues from snowfall Sat night.

* Another fast mover for late Monday into Tuesday but latest
  guidance has throttled back on QPF and wind for that one. Still
  we could see renewed snow impacts for travel in the mountains,
  so worth watching.

* Otherwise, most of next week has trended drier as the AR tracks
  lift northward. Some hints in NBM and IVT guidance for a storm
  at the end of the week around 20th-21st, which would be of a
  warmer variety but the core is still to our north.

-Chris


&&

.AVIATION...

* Quick hitting storm will bring a period of MVFR/IFR snow to the
  Sierra late tonight into Thursday morning, with runway
  accumulations likely at TRK,TVL,MMH. 70-80% odds of 1-2", with
  20- 40% chances of 4" at TRK,TVL specifically.

* Lower down, it`s likely we`ll see VFR/MVFR light snow showers
  at airfields such as RTS,RNO,CXP,MEV but lower probabilities of
  runway accumulations. Latest guidance has 10-20% odds of
  0.1-0.2" for RNO, but higher odds such as 40% at RTS,CXP,MEV.

* Winds aloft increase ahead of this storm, so we`ll seen wind
  shear concerns and mountain wave turbulence for most airfields
  tonight into Thursday morning. Ridgetops winds projected on the
  order of SW at 35-45 knots.

-Chris

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST
     Thursday NVZ002.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST
     Thursday CAZ071>073.

&&

$$