Weimar, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

Weather Forecast Discussion

429
FXUS66 KSTO 112202
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
202 PM PST Wed Dec 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather through this afternoon transitions to a more active
pattern with periods of precipitation and breezy to gusty wind
impacts from tonight into early next week.

.DISCUSSION...
As of early this afternoon, a mixed bag of increasing cloud cover
across the northern Sacramento Valley and decreasing stratus
cover across the southern Sacramento and northern San Joaquin
Valleys is being depicted by latest GOES-West satellite imagery.
The increasing cloud cover to the north is expected to become more
widespread through the remainder of the day as a progressive
shortwave trough moves across interior NorCal late tonight into
Thursday. This trough, albeit quick moving, is expected to bring
impactful precipitation to the region throughout much of Thursday.
Additionally, as the surface low strengthens during its onshore
jaunt, breezy to gusty southerly winds are expected to increase
with some gusts to 25 mph across lower elevations and stronger
gusts up to 40 mph possible along the Sierra crest.

Despite the expected transient nature of this wave, a narrow band
of AR moisture looks to become wrapped up with this system as it
progress eastward. Higher resolution models have begun to indicate
some potential for a brief midday lull before the surface low and
occluded precipitation follows later in the afternoon and
evening, which may prolong the duration of precipitation impacts.
As a result, liquid precipitation totals have nudged a bit higher,
with generally 0.5 to 0.75 inches possible throughout the Valley
and Delta, alongside totals of 1 to 1.5 inches possible across the
foothills and mountains of interior NorCal.

With snow levels expected to remain steady through the event,
around 3500 feet across the Shasta County terrain and around 4500
feet along the Sierra, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for
these respective locations from 10 PM PST tonight through 4 PM PST
Thursday. Resultant snowfall totals of 4 to 8 inches will be
possible above 3500 feet in Shasta County, with 6 to 12 inches
possible above 5000 feet along the Sierra/southern Cascades. This
falls in line with generally 20% to 40% probabilities of exceeding
8 inches of snowfall across the Shasta County areas and 60% to
80% probabilities along the Sierra.

Despite the quick moving wave exiting the region by Thursday
night, the wave train looks to continue into the weekend. The next
successive trough looks to deepen over the Pacific as it
progresses toward the Pacific Northwest. Current ensemble trends
indicate that this system will be a bit stronger and wetter
compared to the initial wave, with a more robust lobe of AR
moisture associated with this system. Current probabilities of
liquid precipitation totals exceeding 1 inch from Friday morning
through Sunday morning sit around 40% to 70& for Valley and Delta
locations, with 70% to 95% probabilities for foothill and mountain
locations.

Snow levels do look to recover a bit compared to the initial wave
as well, sitting generally around 4000 to 5000 feet. Resultant
probabilities of snowfall exceeding 1 foot for locations above
5000 feet along the Sierra currently sit around 60% to 90%, with
higher totals expected over peaks. As this system looks to follow
a slightly more typical trajectory, moving across interior NorCal
rather than digging through interior NorCal, precipitation spread
may be more in line with higher totals from roughly Interstate 80
northward and additional totals tapering off further southward.
Regardless, this setup will favor stronger southerly winds as the
primary lobe of the mid level jet becomes more centered over
interior NorCal. As a result, current probabilities of wind gusts
exceeding 40 mph on Saturday are around 60% to 80% for much of the
region.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)...
Some lingering snow showers are possible Sunday, mainly in the
foothills and mountains, diminishing later in the day as upper
level ridging develops and continues into early morning Monday.
Clusters and ensembles are good agreement with another quick
moving shortwave with a surface cold front pushing through the
area Monday into Monday night. This will bring widespread
precipitation, with includes some additional accumulating snow.
The quick movement will limit precipitation amounts. There is
currently a 30-50% probability of 6" or more of snow over 24
hours. Dry weather and warming temperatures return Tuesday into
Wednesday as upper ridging builds inland with some locally gusty
north to east wind.

&&

.AVIATION...
Areas MVFR with local IFR are are expected for the northern San
Joaquin Valley and Delta over the next 24 hours, developing 06-12z
in the Sacramento Valley in -RA/BR as a storm from the eastern
storm moves inland. Surface wind generally at or below 12 kts.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST
Thursday for Burney Basin / Eastern Shasta County-Shasta Lake
Area / Northern Shasta County-West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-
Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.

&&

$$

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