Tuolumne Meadows, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

779
FXUS66 KHNX 031755
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1055 AM PDT Tue Jun 3 2025


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Minor Heat Risk is expected in the San Joaquin Valley through
Thursday before Moderate Heat Risk returns on Friday into early
next week.

2. There is a 15 to 30 percent chance for thunderstorms in the
Sierra Nevada mountains each afternoon today and Wednesday,
with the Storm Prediction Center issuing a General Risk for
thunderstorms in the mountains for both of those days.

3. Breezy winds can be expected in the mountain and desert
regions today, due to a disturbance located over the Southwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Chances for thunderstorms in the Sierra Nevada continue to exist
through the week, especially today and tomorrow with chances of
15 to 30% in the late morning to evening. Any thunderstorm that
develops has the potential to drop localized heavy rainfall and
frequent lightning strikes. Thunderstorms may continue to
develop each afternoon through the weekend, though the chances
are slightly lowered compared to today and tomorrow at 10 to
20%. While these storms are being fueled by mid level moisture,
the moisture closer to the surface continues to be dry, with
minimum relative humidities in the Valley remaining around
20-25%, with up to 30% closer to the Foothills.

Taking a look at temperatures for the next week, highs today are
expected to be only slightly above normal as the low pressure
disturbance over the California coast will keep 500mb heights
lower than they would be under a ridge. The extra clouds and
moisture will also help cool the air aloft. As that disturbance
moves to the east, the larger trough it was embedded in doesn`t
have the same amount of energy and highs will increase a few
degrees from today to tomorrow. The warming trend is expected to
continue through the weekend as a weak ridge builds into the
Southwest, leading to a possible return to triple digits, though
current models indicate temperatures are not likely to increase
past those numbers. There is also the possibility for a slight
cooling trend by next Tuesday, with the Euro ensemble showing a
shortwave trough infiltrating the ridge above the west coast.

&&


.AVIATION...
18Z Update:

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours across the Central
California Interior. A 15-30 percent chance of thunderstorms
exists in the Sierra Nevada and Kern County mountains between
18Z Tue and 03Z Wed.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  06/02/2025 14:30
EXPIRES: 06/03/2025 23:59
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Public/Aviation/Fire Weather....EW
DSS/PIO.........................JPK

weather.gov/hanford