Toms Place, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

835
FXUS65 KREV 040803
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
103 AM PDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A weather system continues to bring showers, thunderstorms, and
  cooler temperatures today. Be prepared for recreation and
  travel impacts due to gusty winds, rain, hail, and mountain
  snow.

* Warmer, showery weather with additional thunderstorm chances
  expected Tuesday.

* Warm and dry weather returns mid-week through this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Another round of storms is expected this afternoon. Overall
strength of these storms appears to be limited and weaker than
yesterday`s storms due to lack of instability and much cooler
afternoon temperatures. Some showers across western NV will
continue into the early morning and linger until the next round of
storms fire off 10 AM. Snow levels do come down quite a bit to
7500-8500 feet over Mono County this afternoon. That being said,
there is a 40-50% chance of 6 or more inches of snow above 8500
feet in Mono County. The most likely range is between 4-8", with
8" falling on the highest peaks. Graupel will likely get mixed in
with the snow in the more convective, stronger cells as well.
Chances for precip are around 50-80% area-wide, with a 25-35%
chance for lightning.

CAMs have MUCAPE anywhere between 400-1100 J/kg across the CWA,
with DCAPE between generally 300-800 J/kg. Storms over Pershing
County and northern Washoe County will have higher LCLs with more
DCAPE(>900 J/kg), so the potential for stronger gusts up to 50-55
mph is more likely further north. Could see more blowing dust out
in the Basin and Range today too as those storms extend north.
Storms will be moving from east to west today at 25kt, so they`ll
be moving fairly fast. In general, with this kind of environment
we`re expecting any hail to remain around pea size and outflow
gusts up to 45 mph. However, I do want to call out a narrow
corridor from Fallon to Reno where a stronger thunderstorm could
develop this afternoon (hail 0.5", gusts 45+ mph). This many hours
out I don`t want to put too much confidence in it, but the CAMs
are consistently hinting at it to where it`s worth mentioning.
Timing and placement of a brief clearing in the clouds to allow
additional instability will be key with this, so that`s why the
uncertainty is so high.

These showers and thunderstorms will taper off tonight around
8-10 PM. The low off the coast will continue to track south and
east, then by Tuesday afternoon we`ll be set up for another round
of showers and thunderstorms focused more over S. Lyon, Mineral,
and Mono counties. Current probabilities for those storms are
50-60%, with a 15-20% chance of lightning.

Wednesday through this weekend, high pressure will set in where
we`ll finally dry out and warm up to the mid 80s in western NV
valleys and mid 70s in Sierra valleys. Expect really nice spring
weather heading into this weekend with light winds and sunny
skies.

-Justin

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms are once again expected this afternoon
for all terminals. Probabilities are higher in the Sierra (80-90%)
and lower into western NV (50-70%). Chances for lightning will be
25-35% this afternoon as well. With these storms expect frequent
lightning, brief heavy rainfall (IFR), gusty outflow winds (30-40
kt), and small hail (less than 1"). Lower cloud heights are
expected today, which may cause mountaintop obscurations. More
storms are in the forecast Tuesday, with KMMH having the highest
probability to see a storm.

-Justin

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$