Tionesta, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

305
FXUS66 KMFR 221721
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1021 AM PDT Thu May 22 2025

...Updated AVIATION discussion for 18Z TAFs...

.DISCUSSION...An upper trough is moving into the area this morning
and will move east of the forecast area this afternoon. Radar image
shows isolated showers in northern Lake and Klamath County and along
the coast and just offshore. Isolated showers are expected in these
areas this morning, then it will be dry in the afternoon as the
upper trough moves east.

Another weak upper trough will move into the area later Thursday
night into Friday morning, but this isn`t expected to have much, if
any affect on the weather. Some of the guidance suggest convective
showers could break out east of the Cascades Friday afternoon.
Instability is marginal, and some of the guidance suggest it could
be unstable enough for an isolated thunderstorm or two in eastern
Lake County Friday afternoon.

There`s good agreement with upper ridging remaining a play maker for
the first half of the weekend with continued dry and warmer weather
for the interior.

The operational models have come into better agreement with the
general consensus showing the upper ridge remaining in place into
the weekend. The upper trough will slowly move east towards the
coast late Sunday afternoon and could trigger a few showers along
thew coast and an isolated thunderstorm or two in the northern
Cascades. However, this could end up being the exception and not the
rule with the expectation that it will remain dry, with warmer
afternoon temperatures for the interior this weekend. Afternoon
highs are expected to be in the lower 80s for the interior westside
valleys and upper 70s east of the Cascades Saturday, with further
warming Sunday with low to mid 80s for the interior westside valleys
and upper 70s to low 80s east of the Cascades.

The upper trough does move into the area the area Memorial Day, but
it will weaken at the same tine which makes sense since it will be
running into the upper ridging. The weakening of the trough will
result in continued dry and warm weather for most locations for
Memorial Day.

After Memorial Day and probably for most of next week. Evidence is
pointing towards dry and warm weather and some guidance suggest a
stronger upper ridge nudging towards the Pac NW late next week into
the following weekend resulting in afternoon temperatures heating up
for the interior. Stay tuned. -Petrucelli


&&

.AVIATION...22/18Z TAFs...VFR conditions continue across northern
California and southern Oregon this morning. Ceilings over Roseburg
are currently just below the MVFR threshold, but these ceilings are
not expected to persist very long. Usual afternoon winds are
expected, with these winds calming into tonight. North Bend and the
Umpqua Valley may see some borderline MVFR ceilings develop late
tonight into Friday morning. -TAD


&&

.MARINE....Updated 800 AM Thursday, May 23, 2025...Below advisory
seas continue today. North winds will increase Friday morning with
low end small craft conditions possible for the southern waters
between 5 nm and 40 nm from shore and from about Gold Beach south
Friday afternoon and night.

Winds and seas trend lower Saturday. A disturbance may move into the
area Sunday into Monday with winds becoming southerly and seas
increasing slightly. -Petrucelli


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.

&&

$$