South Lake Tahoe, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

898
FXUS65 KREV 141910
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1210 PM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Shower and isolated thunderstorm chances continue this
  afternoon for the E.Sierra from Mono County to the Tahoe Basin.

* Near 100 degree highs for W.Nevada valleys Tue-Wed. Moderate to
  localized major HeatRisk concerns.

* A pattern change Thurday-Friday may increase fire weather
  concerns due to increased T-Storm chances along with gusty winds
  and low humidity. Cooling expected by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected across the
eastern Sierra today, with a 30-40% chance of showers in Mono
County and a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms. The strongest
instability will focus over Mono County, where surface CAPE may
reach 600 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates range from 8.5-9.0 C/km.
Instability weakens northward into the Tahoe Basin with a lesser,
10-15% chance of an isolated thunderstorm. Storms are expected to
develop after 1pm and dissipate after around 8 PM as daytime
heating fades. Any storms that form may produce brief heavy
rainfall, small hail, cloud-to-ground lightning, and outflow wind
gusts up to 50 mph.

Shower and storm chances decrease Monday and Tuesday, with only a
10-15% chance of isolated showers along the Sierra crest. Any
activity that forms may drift onto the west slopes due to an
easterly steering flow. Otherwise, expect light afternoon winds
through Monday. Westerly Zephyr winds return Tuesday afternoon,
with gusts of 20 to 25 mph and isolated gusts up to 30 mph by
early evening.

Afternoon temperatures will remain 10-15 degrees above mid-June
averages, with highs in the mid 90s across W.Nevada and low to mid
80s in Sierra valleys. Additional warming persists into early
next week when some of the hottest days of the year thus far are
expected. W.Nevada valleys have a 10-30% chance of reaching 100
degrees for the first time this year by Tuesday-Wednesday (30-60%
chances for hotter rural valleys). Typically the first 100 degree
day occurs around mid-July. Overnight lows will offer little
relief, staying in the mid-60s, and moderate HeatRisk will be
widespread with isolated major HeatRisk in hotter rural valleys.
Plan ahead by staying hydrated and limiting outdoor activity
during peak afternoon heat.

Heat will persist through midweek, with highs in the upper 90s
across much of W.Nevada and mid to upper 80s in Sierra valleys. A
pattern change around Thursday to Friday may bring 5-10 degrees
of cooling, along with higher chances of thunderstorms and
increased winds, increasing fire concerns late next week. See the
fire weather section below for details. Fuentes

&&

.AVIATION...

Plan on another day of warm temperatures with showers and isolated
thunderstorms, especially for the Sierra terminals. For KMMH, there
is a 20% chance thunderstorm within 10 miles, while chances for
KTRK/KTVL will be around 15%. Expect gusty/erratic winds, brief
downpours, and occasional lightning with any storm. Otherwise,
widespread VFR conditions and typical afternoon breezes prevail.

Above average temperatures Monday through Thursday will result in
density altitude concerns. Nevada terminals will be the most
vulnerable to the density altitude concerns as temperatures
approach the triple digits. Edan/Fuentes

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

An extended stretch of hot, dry weather is expected through next
Thursday, with the hottest temperatures expected on Tuesday and
Wednesday as highs rise 10-20 degrees above normal as afternoon
RH drops into the teens and single digits. Overnight RH recovery
will remain poor across W.Nevada, especially in the Basin and
Range, where some stations across Pershing and Churchill counties
only recovered to 15-18% this morning.

Winds will stay light through Monday, then increase Tuesday as
westerly zephyr breezes return, bringing gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then up to 30 mph by late afternoon and early evening. These dry
and gusty conditions could produce brief periods of critical fire
weather conditions, particularly across the northern Sierra Front
and far northern Washoe County.

Looking ahead, a potential ridge breakdown around the Thursday-
Friday timeframe may increase the chances for thunderstorms,
lightning ignitions, stronger outflow winds, and higher afternoon
winds. After several days of hot, dry conditions, vegetation will
be more susceptible to burning, raising the overall fire threat.
Fuentes

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$