Smith River, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

293
FXUS66 KEKA 140859
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1259 AM PST Sat Feb 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...One more mainly dry day is expected on Saturday.
Rain expected Saturday night through Sunday night with snow
levels falling to 4,500 feet. Monday colder air is expected with
snow levels falling to 2500 to 3500 feet by Monday afternoon.
Monday night and Tuesday snow is expected above 1500 to 2500 feet
impacting most highways through the interior. Lighter rain and
snow are expected Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The upper level ridge is pushing off to the east as
an upper level trough and associated frontal boundaries approach
the area. High clouds have moved into the area and some of the
valleys closer to the coast are seeing low clouds. Early Saturday
a warm front is expected to push into southern Oregon and this may
bring some very light rain to northern Humboldt and Del Norte
counties. The southerly upslope flow may also bring some light
rain and snow to northern Trinity county. Snow levels are
generally expected to be over 5,000 feet with this initial light
precip. Southerly winds are expected to increase through the day
as well. The higher terrain is expected to see winds of 25 to 35
mph by the afternoon.

Late Saturday night and Sunday the first round of heavier
precipitation is expected to start moving into the area. This is
expected to be focused from Cape Mendocino and south. Models are
in fairly good agreement that snow levels will remain high with
this first system. Less than an inch of rain is expected north of
Cape Mendocino while 1 to 2 inches is expected is south of Cape
Mendocino in Mendocino and Lake counties. This may bring some
flooding on the small streams and low lying areas. It looks like
most of this will fall in 12 to 18 hours. Winds are expected to
be breezy with this system gusts to 40 or 45 mph mainly over the
higher terrain.

It looks like there will be a small break in the heavier rain and
snow Sunday night and Monday morning. Then at some point Monday
afternoon or evening some significantly colder air starts to
move in and snow levels fall to around 1500 to 2000 feet. There is
still some uncertainty on the timing of the cold air and when the
precip starts. However confidence is growing that this will be a
significant snow event. There is a 60 to 70 percent chance of over
4 inches of snow at Berry Summit and Buckhorn Summit on hwy 299
as well as hwy 199 at the Collier Tunnel. Hwy 101 at Rattlesnake
Summit in Mendocino county has a 45 percent chance of exceeding 4
inches of snow. In Lake county there is a 15 percent chance of 4
inches along Hwy 175 in Cobb. At this point accumulating snow is
not expected on Hwy 20, 29, or at lake level, but this will need
to be monitored as it gets closer. The challenge is exactly when
the heavier precip will move and when the cold air moves in. Small
changes in the will significantly change the snow amounts. Closer
to the coast below the snow level there is the potential for
small hail. These hail showers are expected to get more widespread
late in the afternoon on Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to be
in the low 40s along the coast making the snow slow to melt. So
continue to monitor the forecast, but for now Tuesday looks like
it will have the heaviest snow, most widespread hail showers and
lowest snow levels. There may be some gusty winds with this system
as well, but for now these look like the lesser impact.

Lighter rain and snow showers are expected on Wednesday with the
potential for another system on Thursday. Low snow levels are
possible once again. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFs)...Expect a surge of clouds overnight to
include low level stratus, High, and mid level. The extra tropical
moisture is being conveyed for the next few days by a revolving
door of deep low pressure systems and troughs with steep
gradients. Flight conditions could be affected by stronger
southerly winds which pick up Saturday evening. Deepening marine
layer will make for a thicker cloud deck and could effect approach
and departure from the terminals. Low level wind shear could be
an additional concern but direction and wind variation below
2000ft are not evident on the model soundings. Stratus is likely
to return to KUKI overnight as it has previously. Periods of LIFR
around 12z with vertical visibility at 200-300ft are possible at
KUKI early Saturday morning. There is a chance that rain will
start at the coastal terminals around the same time with ceilings
around 5000ft for KCEC as the marine layer lifts the cloud deck
and instability aids in the air parcel buoyancy. Since the
moisture is coming from the north, KACV will start showers a few
hours later, around 15-18z. /EYS

&&

.MARINE...It looks like it has already peaked around 16-17ft at
20sec Friday evening, slightly higher than expected. Conditions
have started to ease quite a bit which was in the forecast. Buoy
46244 reading 12ft at 14 seconds as of 6z. Wave heights are
expected to be around 10ft by noon Saturday with winds picking up
out of the south at 15-20kt sustained. Saturday evening could see
gusts up to 35kt or more and 20-25kt sustained. Small craft
advisories are out for the outer waters and southern inner waters
through Sunday afternoon. Northern inner waters have a small craft
advisory out until noon Saturday. Caution should be used in all
area waters as unsettled weather persist. Some models show gusts
for short periods that near Gale force near the Cape of Mendocino.
/EYS


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM PST Saturday for CAZ101-
     103-104-109.

     Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Wednesday
     morning for CAZ102-105-106-110-111-114-115.

     Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Wednesday
     morning for CAZ107-108.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Sunday for PZZ455-470-
     475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka

For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png