Scott Bar, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

Weather Forecast Discussion

513
FXUS66 KMFR 202323
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
423 PM PDT Tue May 20 2025

...New Aviation Section...


.AVIATION (00Z TAFs)...

Expecting a mainly VFR TAF cycle over the next 24 hours. There is
one question about low clouds (MVFR) around the coast and
Roseburg overnight, but the consensus did not have this coming to
fruition tonight given the lack in moisture from most guidance.
Will monitor this and update accordingly. Otherwise, high clouds
will push into the region tomorrow afternoon with generally light
winds through this cycle.

-Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 315 PM PDT Tue May 20 2025/

DISCUSSION...There may be some showers and thunderstorms on
Monday, but this upcoming weekend looks to be a very good time to
be outdoors.

As weather impacts go, those in our area during the
next week look to be relatively minor. They include coastal low
clouds (mainly during the night and mornings) Wednesday night
through Friday night and Sunday night into Tuesday morning), a
slight chance of showers for our northern tier (mainly Coos and
northern Douglas counties) late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, weak instability for a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening for Lake County and the
Warner Mountains of northeast Modoc County, above normal
temperatures inland for the holiday weekend, and a broad trough on
Monday/Memorial Day (lingering on the far east side Tuesday) that
could be accompanied by sufficient moisture and instability for a
slight chance of showers and late day thunderstorms. A few
ensemble members are a little faster with the trough arrival,
which could open the door to a few showers near Crater Lake late
in the day on Sunday. But, a mere increase in evening clouds is
much more likely. A sizable minority of ensemble solutions, and
the operational GFS are just a bit slower, which could bring the
highest probability of a modest risk of showers or a few
thunderstorms for Monday morning, ahead of peak heating. Thus,
limiting the extent of activity.

First, high pressure will briefly build in on Wednesday with early
morning low clouds for southern Douglas County. Warming and drying
inland will send temperatures to several degrees above normal.

The weak trough Wednesday night into Thursday will send light
showers mainly to western Washington and northwest Oregon. A
slightly stronger trough will follow for Friday. With both
troughs, the most widespread effect will be slight cooling,
sending temperatures back to around normal. But, there could be
just enough moisture and instability on Friday to produce the
aforementioned far east side late day convective activity.

The coast will remain typically cool with onshore flow for the
weekend. But, highs in the lower 70s to lower 80s will be several
degrees above normal inland.

We will be paying close attention for better model agreement as
we draw closer to Monday and Tuesday. For now, a wash out, or
scattered to numerous thunderstorm activity is not at all
supported by the data. But, an isolated risk is shown by a
sizable minority of ensemble members.

AVIATION...20/18Z TAFs...Clouds are diminishing, but VFR ceilings
will linger into the afternoon for much of southwest Oregon,
including North Bend and Roseburg The typical afternoon and early
evening gusty breezes are expected this afternoon into early this
evening. IFR low clouds are expected late tonight into early
Wednesday morning in the southern portion of Douglas County, near
Canyonville. Otherwise, VFR is expected to persist through
Wednesday.

-Petrucelli/DW

MARINE....Updated 200 PM Tuesday, May 20, 2025...North winds have
been increasing today and will be strongest south of Cape Blanco.
North winds are expected to persist into Wednesday evening, then
will diminish Wednesday night as a weak upper trough approaches
weakening the thermal trough. Steep west-northwest swell will remain
over all waters into early this evening, and then steep seas will
remain south of Cape Blanco through Wednesday evening. Light to
moderate north winds are expected Wednesday night into the end of
the week, but winds and seas are expected to remain below small
craft.

-Hermansen

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT
     Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$

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