San Jose, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

222
FXUS66 KMTR 150459
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
859 PM PST Wed Jan 14 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 208 PM PST Wed Jan 14 2026

 - Cool mornings, but very mild afternoons into the next week

 - Morning fog across the delta and interior valleys

 - Elevated risk for sneaker waves and rip currents at Pacific
   coast beaches

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 848 PM PST Wed Jan 14 2026

Sensible weather today can once again be described as mild, dry,
and locally gusty. As noted below, the persistent offshore flow is
the main culprit. The SFO-WMC gradient continues to hover in the
-11 to -14mb range, which is decent. The right wind direct,
topographic features, and location led to some impressive gusts
this afternoon/evening. Most of the higher terrain of the North
and East Bay saw gusts in the 20-40 mph with some standouts at Mt
St Helena at 46 mph and Oakland North RAWS at 54 mph. Winds will
ease slightly early tonight, but then ramp up again around sunrise
and shortly thereafter. On the valley floors less influence from
the offshore flow with patchy fog for the North Bay valleys and
Tule Fog creeping into the far East Bay valleys.

No update needed to the forecast.  This pattern remains locked in
heading into the weekend.

MM

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 208 PM PST Wed Jan 14 2026
(This evening through Thursday)

Sunny sky conditions have returned to the region this afternoon
allowing for temperature to warm into the low to mid 60s across the
North Bay, lower 60s across the East Bay, mid to upper 60s across
the South Bay, and up to the low to mid 70s across the Central
Coast. This is resulting a Low HeatRisk across much of the coastal
and valley locations across the Central Coast. This all is thanks to
high pressure aloft and north to northeast (offshore) winds in the
higher elevations.

Overnight, temperatures are forecast to cool into the upper
30s to lower 40s across many of the interior valley locations.
However, cannot rule out wind sheltered spots dipping down into the
low to mid 30s, especially in the North Bay valleys, southern
Salinas Valley, and southern Santa Clara/Hollister valleys. There is
a medium to high probability for patchy dense fog in the valleys of
Sonoma County and the West Delta and adjacent inland areas (such as
Concord). There is also low confidence over the San Francisco Bay
south of the Bay Bridge overnight and into early Thursday morning.

Once any fog that does develop overnight and into early Thursday
morning dissipates, afternoon temperatures will warm by a few
degrees from today`s (Wednesday) as high pressure continues to build
aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 208 PM PST Wed Jan 14 2026
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)

The mid/upper level high pressure aloft will weaken and shift to
the north just off of the Pacific Northwest coast this weekend.
This will allow for temperatures to stabilize and cool slightly
over the weekend, yet will stay remain some 5 to 15 degrees above
seasonal averages. Temperatures cool slight early next week (but
will remain above average) with increased cloud cover across the
region. However, the high pressure will remain the dominate
feature aloft.

From previous forecaster: "Model confidence becomes a mess into the
the last few days of next week. Agreements are fair for the ridge
pattern to be broken, but the route to that result is differing
across the models. The GFS models and ensembles have been calling
for a cutoff low to move through the ridge and break it from the
inside, which is certainly rare to see. Other longer term models
show variations of a decaying ridge pattern as two stronger troughs
build to the north. Either way, this does eventually call for some
chances for rain to return in the last week of January. Though the
path to get there and the magnitude of the rain still is a matter of
debate."

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 848 PM PST Wed Jan 14 2026

Largely a persistence forecast tonight. Which, based on last
night, have removed most mention of reduced vis from TAFs. The
exception is North Bay terminals and KHAF where FG (KSTS) and HZ
(coastal) will result in reduced vis through the overnight hours.
Once again low confidence in any Tule fog impacts for areas in the
interior East Bay, but moderate-high confidence in VFR elsewhere.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period with a slight chance
of low stratus encroaching from the Bay overnight tonight.
Depicted in TAF with FEW cloud group, but capped at FEW to convey
low confidence of coverage affecting terminal. Otherwise light
offshore NE flow continues.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Light offshore NE flow continues.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1004 AM PST Wed Jan 14 2026

Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will prevail today. Winds
will veer to become offshore Thursday through Saturday before
northerly winds return Sunday. Moderate seas will prevail through
the week with the exception of the northwestern portion of the
waters where rough seas will briefly build in today into
tomorrow.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 338 AM PST Wed Jan 14 2026

Hazardous beach conditions return to all Pacific Coast beaches
this morning and persist through tomorrow. Hazards include
sneaker waves, strong rip currents, and large breaking waves.
Sneaker waves are potentially deadly waves that suddenly surge
much farther up the beach than expected, overtaking the unaware.
They can sweep beach-goers into the ocean, roll logs and heavy
debris along the beach, knocking over or pinning down unsuspecting
beachgoers, and can result in cold water immersion, which can be
deadly with sea surface temperatures in the 54 to 57 degrees
range. Remain out of the water, stay off of waterside
infrastructure such as jetties, piers, and rocks, and never turn
your back on the ocean.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Behringer
MARINE...KR

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