Ripon, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

018
FXUS65 KPSR 160913
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
213 AM MST Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and tranquil weather conditions with zero rain chances will
  prevail through the weekend with temperatures remaining below
  normal.

- Temperatures will warm back into the normal range for early next
  week with chances for rain potentially returning to at least the
  Arizona high terrain during the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A quiet weather pattern will continue to bring dry and slightly
below normal temperatures through Saturday. A deep upper level
trough continues to slowly track across the Great Basin, while
southwesterly flow around the southern periphery of the trough
continues to draw drier air into our region. PWATs continue to
drop as a result and should settle between 60-75% of normal later
today into Friday. This dry air will continue to allow for clear
skies across the region through at least Friday. The close
proximity of the trough will also keep temperatures roughly 5-8
degrees below normal today and Friday with highs mostly in the low
80s and lows mostly in the mid to upper 50s. Guidance eventually
shows the trough splitting with a portion of its energy sinking
southward off the coast of southern California and Baja. By
Saturday, some weak ridging will settle in across the Desert
Southwest marking the beginning of a more noticeable warm-up.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The first part of next week should see a weak ridge extending from
central California through the Desert Southwest, while the trough
energy that sinks to our southwest earlier in the weekend forms a
cut-off low. Models are in good agreement with this cut-off low
formation and eventually drifting it back to the north northeast
toward southern California by around next Tuesday/Wednesday. The
ridging over our region early next week is expected to push
temperatures back into the normal range with highs in the mid to
upper 80s across the lower deserts Sunday and Monday before
beginning to cool again as early as Tuesday.

Where models begin to diverge is seen within moisture fields as
the cut-off approaches our region. Both the GEFS and EPS do
showing moisture increasing Tuesday into Wednesday, but the GEFS
only shows PWATs returning to 100-110% of normal across eastern
and central Arizona whereas the EPS shows PWATs increasing to
150-170% of normal. This discrepancy is fairly significant and
is leading to high uncertainty in PoPs for the middle of next
week. If the system is closer to the GEFS solution, then any rain
chances should mostly be across Arizona high terrain areas, while
the EPS would have chances easily extending into at least the
south-central Arizona lower deserts. Either way, potential
rainfall amounts are expected to be on the lighter side. Both
ensemble suites eventually show the cut-off low quickly weakening
as it moves northeastward through our region around next Wednesday
and Thursday. The weather system may also lead to a brief dip in
temperatures during the middle part of next week, but for now they
are not likely to fall much below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0510Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No aviation concerns are expected during the TAF period. Winds
will follow light and diurnal trends with extended periods of VRB
to calm conditions. Confidence remains low regarding the typical E
shift at KPHX Thursday morning, but if one were to occur, it will
only be for a brief window and occur later than usual. Clear skies
will prevail through Thursday evening.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation concerns are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds
will generally contain a W`rly component with perhaps some brief
switches to the NNE at KBLH during the late morning and afternoon
hours. Also at KBLH, a few gusts in the mid-teens may be observed
during the late morning hours, but these have been excluded from
the TAF at this time as they will amount to very little
operational impacts. Clear skies will prevail through Thursday
evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry, tranquil weather with below normal temperatures will prevail
through the end of the week. Minimum afternoon humidity levels
will generally fall into a 15-25% range across the lower deserts
to upwards of 30-35% over the eastern Arizona high terrain.
Overnight recovery will be good to excellent. Light diurnal winds
are expected across the eastern districts, while some occasional
breezy northerly winds will be seen across the western districts.
Similar weather conditions are likely to persist for the first
part of next week with temperatures returning to normal.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kuhlman
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman