Permanente, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

874
FXUS65 KVEF 030904
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
204 AM PDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
possible each day through midweek as sufficient moisture and
instability remain in place over the area. Frequent lightning and
sudden gusty winds will be possible with any storms that develop,
and moderate-to-heavy rain will be possible with stronger storms.
The area will slowly dry out as we head into the weekend with
temperatures beginning to heat back up as a ridge attempts to
build in.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today and Tomorrow.

The cut-off low off the coast of southern California will move
inland later this afternoon, becoming an open wave as it moves
through to the south of our forecast area tonight and tomorrow.
Lingering anomalous moisture combined with daytime heating will
allow for another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms
across southeastern California, southern Nevada, and northwest
Arizona. Areas south and east of the I-15 corridor will have the
best chances at seeing convection this afternoon and evening as the
cut-off low begins to move inland, providing additional lift/
instability to fuel storms. The 00Z HREF mean boasts 750 to 1,500
J/kg of CAPE across the southern and eastern portions of our
forecast area, with around 20 to 25 knots of shear across San
Bernardino County as the cut-off begins to move inland. This
additional instability and shear will allow for storms in the
southern portions of our forecast area to continue into the evening
hours instead of dissipating after sunset with the loss of daytime
heating. Frequent and dangerous lightning and sudden gusty winds
will be possible with any convection that develops today.
Moderate-to-heavy rain capable of resulting in isolated flash
flooding will be possible with stronger storms that develop.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible on
Wednesday as the former cut-off, now open wave continues to move
through southern California into Arizona. As this open wave pushes
into Arizona during the afternoon, the eastern portions of our
forecast area will see moisture and instability align, resulting in
the best chances for convection capable of producing moderate-to-
heavy rain. Sudden gusty outflow winds and frequent lightning
will also be possible with any storms that develop tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.

The active weather pattern continues into Thursday, as the region
remains under the influence of a larger-scale troughing pattern over
the western two-thirds of the CONUS, with the next in a series of
disturbances progged to drop down the West Coast through Thursday.
However, unlike previous days, the bulk of the energy associated
with this system will remain offshore, though a second shortwave
embedded in the flow aloft looks to skirt across the Southern Great
Basin Thursday. Moisture will remain entrenched over the area
through midweek, with PWATs still 150 to 200 percent of normal
across the region, with a northward shift of the most substantial
moisture. Thus, the best chance for convection Thursday will shift
northward accordingly, with gusty winds, locally heavy rain, and
lightning still expected with storms that develop. Convective
activity will wane through the evening as the aforementioned
shortwave translates eastward, with a significant warming and drying
trend then expected to carry through the weekend and into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...The
convection that impacted the valley earlier this evening has
weakened and pushed off to the south.  Some storms are still
occurring along the Peach Spring Corridor, but this activity should
also weaken and end around midnight.  After a quiet overnight and
morning period, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop in and near the valley by early tomorrow afternoon, any of
which could bring moderate to heavy rain, CIGs below 10kft,
lightning, and sudden gusty winds over 35 knots. Winds should remain
un-impactful through tonight as the typical southwest drainage winds
become reestablished by 06Z to 07Z. After a period of light winds
tomorrow morning, east to southeast winds will return during the
afternoon and will remain light away from any of the potential
convection mentioned above.  Skies should remain SCT with bases AOA
10kft AGL away from any convective activity.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Scattered convection
will continue to move south across northwest Arizona late this
evening and early tonight, possibly accompanied by gusty northerly
winds for a period, affecting KIFP and, to a lesser extent, KEED.
Widespread convection is expected tomorrow, with all terminals
potentially being impacted by thunderstorm activity at some point.
With any thunderstorm activity, lightning, sudden gusty winds,
moderate to heavy rain, and CIGs to 8kft AGL are possible. Away from
the remaining convection, south to southwest winds around 10 knots
continue through tonight.  Light winds are expected to return area-
wide tomorrow morning and continue into tomorrow afternoon.  Skies
will generally be FEW to SCT with bases AOA 10kft AGL away from any
convection tomorrow.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Stessman
LONG TERM...Phillipson
AVIATION...Planz

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