Orcutt, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

196
FXUS66 KLOX 122017
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
117 PM PDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...12/714 AM.

The hot weather across the valleys and interior will continue
into this evening. Night through morning low clouds and fog will
continue along the coast and into some coastal valleys through the
period and will prevent those areas form heating up. A cooling
trend will begin Wednesday as an upper-level trough influences
the West Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...12/110 PM.

Synoptically, the area is under a broad area of higher heights
with 594 dam over most of SoCal. A trough will dip down along the
US west coast Wednesday through the weekend before the ridge
pushes back in from the southeast.

There are no clouds except for along the SLO and Ventura Co
coasts today. Skies are smokey in southern SLO Co and central SBA
Co. Max temps are the most impactful weather element today as the
upper high sitting atop of the state is keeping a heat dome over
the area. Downsloping, warm winds across the Antelope Vly have
temps over 100 degrees there already. An extreme heat warning is
in effect for these areas where max temps will range from 105 to
108 degrees. Most of the rest of the interior sections including
the lower mtn elevations are under a heat advisory for max temps
from 100 to 104 degrees. Please see the product LAXNPWLOX for all
of the heat related details. Still expecting another Sundowner
tonight across the western portion of the SBA south coast to come
in just under advisory levels except for brief advisory level
conditions in passes.

On Wednesday, the ridge will begin to break down with hgts
falling to 592 dam. The coastal eddy is expected to spin up and
this will increase amount of night through morning low clouds and
fog. Max temps will cool 2 to 4 (locally 6) degrees. While there will
be plenty of 100+ degree heat in the interior, the cooling should
be just enough to prevent the extension of the heat products.
There will be a stronger Sundowner Wednesday evening and a wind
advisory is likely for the western portion of the SBA south coast.

On Thursday the ridge moves further east and hgts fall further to
588 dam. The eddy will persist and most areas will see an
additional 2 to 4 degrees of cooling (4 to 6 degrees across the
LA mtns and Antelope Vly). Most of the csts/vlys will see max
temps in the 70s/80s a with only 90s across the interior.

A little more cooling on Friday as the trough will persist over
the area.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...12/1159 AM.

A fairly static pattern will dominate the long term. Long wave
troffing will be over the state on Sat for a final day of cooling.
Saturday`s max temps range from near 70 across the near shore
area with 70s across the rest of the coastal areas. The vlys will
end up only in the 80s. These max temps are mostly 5 to 10 degrees
below normal. On Sunday and Monday the trof will move to the west
and set up over east PAC. Hgts will be near 588 dam through the
period. Somewhat atypical (for August) onshore flow will continue
through the period. Look for strong onshore flow to the north and
east in the afternoon becoming weak to mdt due to the diurnal
pressure curve in the early morning.

A persistent night through morning low cloud pattern will
continue along the coasts. There will only be limited valley
penetration (The Santa Ynez Vly will be the notable exception) as
the hgts will likely keep the marine layer under 1000 ft.

The strong onshore push to the east will generate gusty afternoon
winds across the some mtns and the western Antelope Vly. These
winds will create locally elevated fire wx conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...12/1843Z.

At 1626Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2000 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 4200 ft with a temperature of 26 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs at KPMD, and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KBUR, and KVNY. There is a
20-30% chance for LIFR to IFR cigs at each sites after 08Z, with
highest chances at KBUR and KVNY.

Moderate confidence in coastal TAFs. Timing of arrival of cigs
for KSBP, KSMX, KSMO, KLAX, and KSMO may be off +/- 2 hours. For
KOXR, and KCMA, timing may be off +/- 3 hours, and there is a
chance for now low clouds at KOXR (20%) and KCMA (40%). Minimum
flight cat may be off by one cat.

Vis reduction due to FU from Gifford Fire is possible at times
for KSBP, KSMX, KSBA, & KPRB.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Return of cigs could occur as
early as 01Z. Minimum cig height could be off +/- 200 ft. Moderate
confidence in any east wind component remaining below 6 kts.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is 30% chance of cigs
004-010 after 08Z, but low confidence on cig heights. Vsbys may be
as low as 1SM if cigs arrive.

&&

.MARINE...12/116 PM.

High confidence in seasonal NW winds across the Outer Waters and
Inner Waters along the Central Coast, with 40-70% chance of
reaching Small Craft Advisory (SCA) in the afternoon through late
night hours each day through the week. Highest confidence in the
southern Outer Waters, especially Wednesday and beyond. There is a
30% chance of local GALE Force wind gusts around Point Conception
to San Nicolas Island in the afternoon and evening Wednesday and
Thursday for all the outer waters. Seas may approach 10 feet
across western portions of PZZ670 on Friday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate
confidence in SCA level wind gusts in the western portion of the
Santa Barbara Channel in the afternoon and evenings through
the week, then there is a 50-60% chance for winds to increase to
SCA levels in the eastern portion of the zone Wednesday and
Thursday afternoon and evening. Otherwise and elsewhere,
conditions will remain below SCA levels through the week.

In addition, night to morning dense fog may continue at times
into Thursday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 38-351>353-376>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday evening
      for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke/jld
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...jld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox