Olancha, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

699
FXUS65 KVEF 071551
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
851 AM PDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated terrain based convection will be possible
across the Eastern Sierra and Southern Great Basin over the
weekend as a ridge of high pressure slowly pushes moisture to the
north over the weekend. The coverage and intensity will continue
to decrease each afternoon through the weekend as the region dries
out and temperatures climb. Expect above-average temperatures,
dry conditions, and afternoon breeziness each day next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Quiet weather this morning. Just beginning to see cumulus
development, which will eventually evolve into isolated showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon, primarily focused on the higher
terrain near and north of Las Vegas. Forecast is in good shape and
no update planned this morning.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow.

Ridging will continue to push into the area from the south over the
weekend. This building ridge will push the anomalous moisture
responsible for this week`s active weather to the north, with the
Mojave Desert seeing precipitable water (PW) return to normal over
the weekend. While the Mojave Desert dries out and returns to normal
over the weekend, the Southern Great Basin will see PWs around 100
to 125% of normal hold on over the weekend. This, combined with
intense daytime heating will have the potential to result in
isolated mountain top convection across the Eastern Sierra and
Southern Great Basin this afternoon with another round possible
tomorrow afternoon. While moisture is technically above normal, the
low levels of the atmosphere will be dry. This means any
precipitation that reaches the ground will be light, with virga
likely. Chances for dry lightning out of this afternoon`s convection
is minimal (less than 10%), but not zero.

Outside of chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms in the
Eastern Sierra and mountains of the southern Great Basin,
temperatures will heat up over the weekend as the aforementioned
ridge builds into the area. As temperatures increase to around 5 to
10 degrees above normal over the weekend, we will see HeatRisk
increase with widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) HeatRisk by Sunday.
This type of heat will impact heat sensitive individuals and anyone
without effective cooling or adequate hydration. Those planning on
recreating outdoors this weekend should make sure to take proper
precautions to protect themselves from the heat and the sun.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday.

The work week will start off hot and dry as ridging maintains the
warming trend, which looks to peak Monday and Tuesday. Highs across
the region will be in the 90s and 100s for all but the mountains,
where temperatures will top out in the 80s - around 8 to 10 degrees
above normal. Monday and Tuesday will also see widespread Moderate
to Major HeatRisk, thus those with outdoor plans or who are
vulnerable to the heat will need to plan accordingly. After Tuesday,
a pattern shift is expected as a trough begins developing over the
West Coast in response to a deepening low over the Gulf of Alaska.
Cluster analyses and ensemble guidance continue to be in good
agreement, keeping this system to the west of the area, which will
result in a transition to quasi-zonal or southwesterly flow aloft
midweek onward. This will allow for a slow cooling trend as heights
fall, though temperatures will still remain above normal through the
end of the week. There are also indications of weak shortwaves
rounding the base of the larger-scale trough, but given the dry
antecedent conditions, little will result from these shortwaves
beyond periodic breezy conditions across the region. Overall, the
pattern looks to be fairly quiescent through next week, and a bit
more on par with what`s to be expected in early to mid June.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Light
winds favoring typical daily trends are expected throughout the TAF
period.  Temperatures near or exceeding 100F are expected between
22z and 01z, and a few random wind gusts of up to 15 knots during
this period cannot be ruled out due to the intense thermal heating.
VFR conditions under mainly clear skies will continue into tomorrow.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and
southeastern California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Generally,
light and diurnal winds of less than 10 knots can be expected across
the region except for the western Mojave Desert, including KDAG,
where breezy west winds with speeds between 10 and 15 knots are
expected this evening. KBIH will also experience gusty south-
southeasterly winds this afternoon with speeds between 15 and 20
knots.  An isolated thunderstorm will also be possible along the
Sierra during the afternoon.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
under mainly clear skies.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Morgan
SHORT TERM...Stessman
LONG TERM...Phillipson
AVIATION...Planz

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