Ogilby, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

495
FXUS65 KPSR 250942
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
242 AM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances will continue for the first part of today with a
  break tonight and much of Friday. Additional chances for light
  rain will mainly affect Arizona higher terrain areas Friday
  night and Saturday.

- Temperatures will cool to near normal readings over the weekend
  before returning to slightly above normal for the first half of
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A large Pacific trough continues to impact much of the Western
U.S., including the Desert Southwest. The low center is currently
well to the west of northern California with two main shortwaves
tracking eastward into California and another into Arizona. The
shortwave pushing across western Arizona is helping to drive a
band of light to moderate rainfall which has dropped anywhere from
0.10" to upwards of 0.50" in a few spots. Additional scattered
light showers continue to move across portions of south-central
Arizona with rainfall amounts generally under 0.05". Hi-res CAMs
are still struggling to depict the scattered shower activity, but
have picked up on the main rain band. This band is already
starting to show signs of drying up as it moves into southwest
Arizona and it`s likely to continue as it mainly lifts to the
northeast into the Arizona high country. The scattered shower
activity may continue into mid to late morning focused more
across the higher terrain north and northeast of Phoenix before
tapering off completely during the afternoon hours as drier air
filters in from the west. We should also see much more sunshine by
this afternoon with highs likely topping out in the low to mid
70s.

The upper level low is forecast to quickly fill going into Friday
with guidance now settling more on some remnant energy of the
system moving through our region Friday night into Saturday. Given
moisture levels will have dropped a decent amount by this time, we
are not expecting much additional precipitation. The latest NBM
PoPs are mostly 10% and below for the lower deserts to 15-30%
across higher terrain areas. The passage of this trough will also
usher in noticeably cooler air this weekend with lower desert
highs mostly dropping into the upper 60s, or within a couple
degrees of normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...
Model guidance has shifted away from any rain chances early next
week as much drier air is likely to filter into the region from
the north Sunday into Monday. We should also see some ridging over
the region early next week, but guidance continues to change the
positioning of a potential cut- off low off the coast of Baja. If
the ridge fully takes over across our region, we are likely to see
a boost in temperatures by around Tuesday with highs potentially
pushing near 75 degrees by Wednesday. Although guidance continues
to overall suggest the cut- off low will become a factor for our
region again at some point later next, forecast confidence remains
quite low. NBM PoPs seem too high for next Wednesday and Thursday
given the uncertainty, so we have trimmed PoPs by 30% across the
entire area. If the cut- off low does move back close to our
region or even into our region later next week, it at least looks
promising for some meaningful moisture return with PWATs again
forecast to reach near 1", or around 250% of normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0900Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

The main aviation impacts will be the lower CIGs this morning and
the scattered shower activity. The lowest CIGs may briefly dip to
between 4-6K feet around sunrise before improving by late morning
and scattering out later in the afternoon. Winds through the TAF
periods will predominantly favor the east with speeds mostly aob
10 kts and periods of variability. There may end up being a brief
northerly or northwesterly shift late in the afternoon and early
evening before settling back out of the east by mid to late
evening.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Showers will quickly come to an end by sunrise with skies
gradually scattering out by mid morning. Some patchy fog will be
possible across the Imperial Valley this morning, but confidence
is too low to include in the TAF. Winds will be somewhat variable
this morning before settling out of the south at KBLH and out of
the west southwest at KIPL by the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An unsettled weather pattern will result in cooling temperatures
and increased humidities through the weekend and chances for
light to moderate rain showers mainly today. Additional chances
for light rain may return over the AZ high terrain Friday evening
into Saturday. MinRHs will range between 40-60% areawide through
Saturday. Winds will mostly be out of the south today, with some
breeziness across portions of Southwest AZ and Southeast CA.
Winds will be light on Friday before becoming breezy at times
again over the weekend.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kuhlman
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman