Occidental, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

749
FXUS66 KMTR 102351
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
451 PM PDT Sat May 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 217 PM PDT Sat May 10 2025

A pattern change begins on Sunday as upper level troughing sets up
over the Eastern Pac and then digs into PacNW. Cooler temperatures
are expected Sunday and Monday, with temperatures gradually warming
afterwards. Light rain and breezy winds will be possible with this
system, especially for areas north of the Golden Gate area, with
chances decreasing as you head south. Drier weather returns on
Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 217 PM PDT Sat May 10 2025

Key Messages

-High temperatures on Sunday will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler than
Saturday.
-Chances for rain slowly move in from the NW late Sunday into early
Monday, mainly for the North Bay Counties.

Stratus looks to return overnight and hug along our coast line,
while interior areas relatively clear. Any stratus that does develop
should eventually clear out by mid to late morning, leaving us with
a period of clear skies for the afternoon. The overall pattern
change begins on Sunday as upper level troughing sets up over the
Eastern Pac and then digs into PacNW throughout the day. Heights
will fall dropping putting our high temperatures 10 to 20 degrees
lower than they were on Saturday. Increasing clouds are expected
later in the day, with rain chances slowly creeping out from the NW.
Chances for rain gradually increase Sunday night into Monday morning
for the North Bay counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 217 PM PDT Sat May 10 2025

Key Messages

-Increasing chances for light rain through early Monday afternoon.
-The best chances for rain look to be north of the Golden Gate
region.
-Cooler temperatures Monday, warming trend begins Tuesday and
continues through the week.

Cool, breezy, and unsettled weather is expected on Monday as the
upper level low continues to dig and move eastward. Rain chances
look to increase through most of Monday morning before gradually
tapering off during the afternoon. Light and beneficial rain is
expected with the North Bay and San Francisco area seeing anywhere
between 0.05-0.25" of rain, with the larger amounts being observed
over the terrain. Elsewhere in the Bay Area and into the north
Central Coast, rainfall amounts look to be less than 0.10" of
accumulation.

As the low continues to track eastward Monday night into Tuesday,
we`ll be left in a post frontal environment. Ingredients for
thunderstorms are minimal, with instability likely being the
limiting factor. Current guidance suggests that should we clear we
should see at least some fair weather cumulus develop. In terms of
thunderstorms, confidence remains low, 10% OR less, in storms
developing. Should it happen, it seems areas with orographic lift
(terrain driven) have the best shot. This would be our interior
North Bay mountains, the Diablo and Gabilan ranges, and Cholame
hills. Opted to hint keep PoP and thunder out of the forecast at
this time but left some ghost PoP in to refer back to at later
forecasts should the signal become stronger. Once the trough clears
Tuesday, ridging builds in for mid to late week which will lead to
warming temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 451 PM PDT Sat May 10 2025

Clear conditions /VFR/ prevail across the forecast area this
afternoon with sufficiently dry air mixing resulting in near high
confidence VFR continuing through the evening. The SFO-SAC
pressure gradient has strengthened to 3.0 mb while the ACV-SFO
pressure gradient is holding near 5.0 mb. A dry near surface cool
front will move southward reaching the Bay Area immediate coastline
this evening potentially strengthening onshore winds through the
evening. SFO gusts have been strengthening to 30 knots so far and
may increase somewhat further during the evening. The marine layer
depth is still near sea level, perhaps to several hundred feet
deep e.g. at the Fort Ord profiler.

With a steady arrival of cooler air on northwest winds there`s
also an increasing probability of low clouds /IFR-MVFR/ developing
tonight and moving inland overnight to Sunday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through at least mid evening, a near high
confidence forecast. VFR continuing tonight until MVFR in low
clouds developing by 15z Sunday morning. West wind gusting to
lower 30s knots through 08z tonight, there may be a few higher
gusts during the evening. West wind gradually diminishing late
tonight and Sunday morning, but quickly becoming increasingly
gusty again to near 30 knots Sunday afternoon and evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR continuing through at least mid evening,
a moderate to high confidence forecast. MVFR in low clouds developing
late tonight and Sunday morning, mixing out to VFR by late morning.
Onshore winds 10 to 20 knots through early to mid evening, still
locally breezy overnight, then winds gusty to 20 to 25 knots Sunday
afternoon.



&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM PDT Sat May 10 2025

A moderate to fresh northwesterly breeze will persist across much
of the coastal waters through the weekend, with up to near gale
force gusts. Light rain will be possible on Monday as a frontal
passage moves across the region with diminishing winds in wake of
the frontal passage. Winds increase once again toward the middle
of the upcoming week. Moderate seas continue through the end of
the forecast period.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ516.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for SF Bay N
     of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...RGass

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