Oak View, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

611
FXUS66 KLOX 011028
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
328 AM PDT Thu May 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...01/224 AM.

A deep marine layer and onshore flow will keep temperatures well
below normal through the end of the week with some night and
morning drizzle possible across coast and valleys. There is a
chance of thunderstorms in the mountains this afternoon and
evening as an upper low moves through the area. Even cooler
temperatures will occur over the weekend with a renewed threat of
occasional showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...01/316 AM.

MAy 1st will welcome May Grey, but with a convective afternoon
twist. A 2500 ft marine layer capped by a strong inversion and
moderate onshore flow has brought marine layer stratus to all of
the csts/vlys and even the coastal slopes. Local drizzle is
possible near the coastal slopes. Hi-Rez mdls suggest better
clearing today but with an 8 mb onshore push in the afternoon this
may be optimistic esp for the SBA to OXR coastal area. There is a
relatively high hgt (569 dam) upper low overhead and there is
just enough cold air aloft assoc with it that when combined with
mostly sunny skies over the interior will bring enough instability
to kick off a round of afternoon showers (30 to 50 percent chc)
and possible TSTMs (20 percent chc) over the mtns from eastern SBA
county to the I-5 corridor as well as the Cuyama Vly and the
western Antelope Vly and foothills. The atmosphere is much wetter
than normal and as a result rain rates between a half and one inch
per hour are possible with any storm that develops. Since the
storms will form near the center of the upper low where there is
very light steering flow, the storms will move very slowly. This
will enhance the flooding danger posed by these rain rates. People
living or working near burn scars (but not the ones in the Santa
Monicas) should be on the look out for sudden storm developments.
In addition to the flooding threat any TSTM that forms could also
produce small hail and gusty winds. Temperatures should warm
today if the faster clearing scenario pans out, if the low clouds
hang on a little tougher today`s fcst numbers will be a little too
high across the csts and vlys. No matter what happens max temps
will end up below normal.

A little ridge will move in behind the departing low. Onshore flow
remains pretty strong so there will be morning low clouds. Today`s
upper low should weaken the inversion enough to allow for better
clearing. Better clearing and higher hgts will lead to 2 to 4
degrees of warming. Max temps across the csts and vlys will end up
3 to 6 degrees blo normal.

The ridge will be short lived as another upper low will move into
northern California Saturday afternoon and into southern
California Saturday night into Sunday. A lobe of PVA ahead of the
low will bring a 20 to 30 percent of showers to mtns and interior.
Rainfall rates will be under a quarter inch and its likely that
these showers will not pose much of a threat. Falling hgts and
strong onshore flow will cool the csts 2 to 4 degrees while the
rest of the area cools 4 to 8 locally 12 degrees. Max temps will
almost all be in the 60s across the csts/vlys.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...01/327 AM.

The upper low is now forecast to pass to the west of the area on
Sunday. This will keep the max instability over he waters and will
reduce the threat of showers. Now there is only 15 to 20 percent
chc of showers (mostly over the mtns and eastern LA county.
Rainfall rates and totals will be on the low non impactful side.
will move over Srn Ca on Sunday. Hgts will fall to about 551 dam
which is about 20 dam lower than normal. Max temps will fall an
additional 4 to 8 degrees of cooling across the csts and vlys and
8 to 15 degrees across the mtns and far interior. Max temps would
be considered cool for January with highs mostly in the lower 60s
with some sites remaining in the upper 50s. like a colder than
normal January day with max temps coming in a few degrees either
side of 60 for the csts. These temps are 6 to 12 locally 15 degrees
blo normal for the cst/vlys and 15 to 20 degrees for the interior.

Enough ensemble members swing a secondary impulse across the area
Monday as the main upper low exits the state. This is enough for a
slight chc of mtn shower, but again without much moisture to work
with the shower threat is very minimal. All the cold air should
have mixed out the marine inversion so there should be few if any
low clouds in the morning. Skies still partly cloudy from some
wrap around clouds. 2 to 5 degrees of warming across the csts and
vlys will not be enough to bring max temps out of the 60s.

EC and the GFS as well as their respective ensembles are in better
agreement for the Tuesday Wednesday forecast. Look for weak
ridging over the area with moderate onshore flow in the afternoon.
Night through morning low clouds and fog will resume with mostly
clear afternoons. Two days of warming will bring max temps into
the mid to upper 60s for most of the csts and into the 70s for the
vlys.

***

A note from WFO Oxnard Lead Meteorologist D Bruno:

Today is a bittersweet day for me. After nearly 35 years in this
wonderful agency, I am retiring from the National Weather Service
today. After beginning my career in my hometown of Boston in 1990,
I moved to the Southland, taking a job at the NWS Los Angeles
area office in Oxnard. I planned to return back to Boston to be
near family, but I fell in love with southern California, so I
happily stayed...for three decades and counting.

I have loved all things weather since I was about 5 years old. My
job as a Lead Meteorologist in the National Weather Service has
been a dream come true. I have been so fortunate to work with
such a amazing group of kind, professional, knowledgeable and
dedicated people during my career. I would like to bid a fond farewell
to all of my coworkers (including those who have moved away), and
to our incredible partners in the media, emergency management and
fire communities. I will miss you all, and I will miss the job,
but I look forward to relaxing times and seeing more of this
beautiful world in my next phase of life. Thank you southern
California, You are in good hands with the top-notch staff at NWS
Oxnard!

DB--forecaster number 11

&&

.AVIATION...01/0634Z.

At 0505Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2200 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 3800 feet with a temperature of 16 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KWJF and KPMD.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for remaining sites. There is a 25
percent chc that coastal sites with clearing will not clear. Flight
cat changes may be off +/- 2 hours.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 25 percent chc of no
SCT conds. If SCT conds do arrive they could come as early as 19Z
or as late as 23Z. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chance
of OVC008 conds 11Z-16Z. There is a 25 percent chc that VFR conds
will not arrive until 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/317 AM.

In the outer waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining
relatively benign through Thursday. Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
winds and seas (with swells up to 15 ft) are likely (>80% chance)
Fri afternoon thru Sun night, with a 60-70% chance of GALE force
winds Sat afternoon/night and potentially lingering into Sunday
evening. During this time, there is also a less than 10% chance
for Storm Force winds (48 kts).

In the inner waters north of Point Sal, SCA conditions are not
expected thru Fri morning. SCA winds and seas are likely (70%
chance) Fri through Sun, with highest chances in the
afternoon/night hours. There is a 60% chance GALES Sat
afternoon/night.

In the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA conds are not expected thru Fri
morning. SCA winds and seas are then likely (70% chance) Fri
afternoon through Sun night, with a 40-50% chance of GALES across
western sections and for the Channel Islands Sat afternoon/eve.

In the southern inner waters, SCA conds are not expected thru
Sat morning, then are likely (70% chance) beginning in the the
afternoon Sat and continuing thru Sun night. There is a 40-50%
chance for GALES in the western portion of the zone and a 30%
chance for GALES for the nearshore waters north of Point Dume Sat
afternoon/night.

There is a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms across the northern
waters Saturday and most of the coastal waters into Sunday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Friday to noon PDT
      Saturday for zones 645-650-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
      morning for zones 645-650-655-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke/Bruno
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Phillips/Lund
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox