Mountain Mesa, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

632
FXUS66 KHNX 301130
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
430 AM PDT Wed Apr 30 2025

.UPDATE...

Updated aviation section.

&&


.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Temperatures will trend warmer until late this week.

2. An upper-level disturbance arrives midweek which will
provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms to mainly the
mountain areas. Otherwise, warmer than average temperatures
continue until the end of the week.

3. A cooldown and stronger system will bring a chance of more
widespread precipitation and locally gusty winds for the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Warmer temperatures are in store today until Friday as a ridge
of high pressure builds over Central CA. Dry weather prevails,
but isolated mountain thunderstorms will be a daily occurrence
in portions of the Sierra Nevada. The threat of thunderstorms
spreads to the Kern County mountains and into much of the
foothill areas on Wednesday and Thursday due to an upper-level
shortwave trough. The Storm Prediction Center shows a general
risk of thunderstorms for these areas on Wednesday and Thursday
(i.e., Days 2-3 Thunderstorm Outlooks). Friday will remain a
warm day for most of our forecast area, and we could see fewer
mountain thunderstorms as the flow turns more southwesterly.
However, will keep at least a slight chance of thunderstorms for
the Sierra until Friday, as some snow cover remains as a
sufficient moisture source, at least for the higher elevations.
Few changes in terms of probabilistic data are shown regarding
the high temperatures projected for the lower elevations; we are
still looking at moderate to high chances of reaching into the
mid-upper 80`s in much of the valley and desert for the next few
days.

The weekend continues to appear cool and unsettled with quite a
few similarities to last weekend. Several inches of snow mainly
above 6,000 feet are expected for the mountains, although with
snow levels down to 5,000 feet for a brief period. The best
chances for precipitation will be in the mountains and
foothills, although a slight chance of thunderstorms remains for
portions of the SJ Valley. Gusty winds are becoming increasingly
likely for the mountains and desert, including the Mojave
Desert slopes and over the Sierra Nevada crest, where the
probabilities for gusts over 60 mph continue to rise, or up to
around 40-60 percent chance.

By early next week, the upper-level trough gradually moves
further inland, although guidance continues to show a Rex block
pattern over the interior Western U.S. with an upper-level low
over the Southwest on Monday into next Tuesday. For us, it
appears a somewhat warmer and drying pattern occurs, but
temperatures will remain below seasonal averages. The latest
outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center also support
continued near to below average temperatures and near to above
average precipitation through the second week of May. However,
much uncertainty exists, given we are still in spring and
transitioning to our drier season.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z Update:

In the San Joaquin Valley and West Side Hills, VFR conditions will
persist for the next 24 hours.

Elsewhere, mainly VFR, except MVFR due to cloud buildups and
isolated showers/thunderstorms in the Sierra Nevada and adjacent
foothills developing after 18Z Wednesday.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

aviation....SM

weather.gov/hanford