Madera, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

763
FXUS66 KHNX 252300
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
300 PM PST Thu Dec 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. High confidence of flooding across the foothills with
continued rainfall. Soils are saturated, resulting in excessive
runoff

2. High confidence of heavy snow above 7000 feet, with snow
load impacts on roofs in the high Sierra continues. Travel will
be hard with winds gusting up to around 25 mph.

3. Thunderstorms are expected tonight and Friday across the
Joaquin Valley.


.AVIATION UPDATE...

MVFR/VFR conditions are expected at all sites with ISO -RA
showers until 26/05Z when a more organized line of moderate
rain is expected to arrive near KMCE/KMER bringing IFR/MVFR
conditions. As the line moves southeast it will disorganize
around 26/07Z leading to ISO to SCT -SHRA across the San Joaquin
Valley. There will be a break in showers around 26/11Z then ISO
to SCT -SHRA return around 26/15Z and will continue through
tomorrow afternoon.

Lowered CIG will likely persist for several locations as
additional showers and thunderstorms are possible. VIS will be
determined by the timing of the showers and thunderstorms.
South to southeasterly SFC winds generally less than 12 kts
expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 956 AM PST Thu Dec 25 2025/

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. High confidence of flooding across the foothills with
continued rainfall. Soils are saturated, resulting in excessive
runoff.

2. High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory areas impacted by downed
trees or power outages, moderate confidence. Travel will be
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. 40% probability of
winds gusting to 30 mph from Merced to Hanford through this
afternoon, will also topple trees and move loose objects.

3. High confidence of heavy snow above 7000 feet, with snow load
impacts on roofs in the high Sierra continues. Travel will be
impossible with 60 mph winds and whiteout conditions.

4. Thunderstorms are expected today (Christmas Day) and Friday
across the Joaquin Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

River and areal flooding will be highest concern as recent
heavy rainfall saturated soils has triggered initial rises at
some river gages. A higher than normal snow level near 6,000`
with enhanced low level moisture flux resulting in 100% HREF
probabilities above 2,000`+ for 1.5"+ of QPF over the next 24
hours. While confidence is high for hourly and subhourly QPF
thresholds remaining below burn scar thresholds, the last few
runs of the HRRR, one of the more moist members of the 25.00Z
HREF, tease near threshold values for the Salt 14-2 burn scar
this morning although less so at the Garnet, Basin, and Coffee
Pot burn scars through the early afternoon. Besides storm
chances, steep low level lapse rates and associated instability
may also provide increased subhourly rainfall amounts.
Therefore, will be additional forecast detail to monitor.
Otherwise, strong winds and heavy snow with HREF probabilities
for 30" of snowfall in 24 hours hours over Tioga Pass, Mammoth
Peak, and John Muir will cause whiteout conditions in the high
Sierra.

Flood Watches remain in effect across most of the forecast area
through Friday evening as a Winter Storm Warning continues for the
High Sierra into Friday night. High Wind Warning and Wind
Advisory areas impacted by downed trees or power outages,
moderate confidence. Travel will be difficult, especially for
high profile vehicles. 40% probability of winds gusting to 30
mph from Merced to Hanford, will also topple trees and move
loose objects.

The Upper level low driving today`s increased rainfall seen
occluding off the coast on GOES upper level water vapor imagery
persists meager moisture flux advection through Friday, lingering
mostly orographically-driven precipitation chances through Friday.
Eventually the global pattern progresses the trough east into the
Desert Southwest through the weekend, reducing higher
precipitation chances locally. Subsequent widespread colder
temperatures with mid to upper 30 overnight lows Sunday into
Monday and Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR/VFR conditions are expected from KFAT southward until
26/03Z when an organized line of heavier rain is expected to
arrive near KMCE/KMER bringing IFR/MVFR conditions. As the line
moves southeast it will disorganize around 26/07Z leading to
ISO/SCT -SHRA across the San Joaquin Valley. ISO/SCT -SHRA will
continue through tomorrow afternoon.

Lowered CIG will likely persist into the afternoon for several
locations as additional showers and thunderstorms are possible.
VIS will be determined by the timing of the showers and
thunderstorms. At this time, have left thunder out of the TAFs
as lightning probabilities are generally <20%, but there could
be a period this afternoon where thunder gets added.

Windy southeast SFC winds expected at KMER, KMCE and KBFL
sustained 8 to 17 kts gusting to 30 kts until 26/00Z. SFC winds
then lower to generally less than 12 kts.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES... On Thursday December 25, 2025,
Fireplace/ Wood Stove Burning Status is: Burning Discouraged in
Fresno, Kern, Kinds, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and
Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequioa National Park and
Forest.

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is low.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is low.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for CAZ300>339.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ300>304-308-
309-313-314-316>318-324-332.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST Friday for CAZ323-326>331.
High Wind Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ333>336.
&&

$$

Malarkey

weather.gov/hanford