Macdoel, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

479
FXUS66 KMFR 251808
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1108 AM PDT Sun May 25 2025

.DISCUSSION...Updated Aviation Section...

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.AVIATION...25/18Z TAFs...Low clouds (MVFR) continue this
morning in the Umpqua Basin and is burning off at the coast this
morning. Breezy northwest/northerly winds will be present this
afternoon, strongest east of the Cascades.

An approaching upper level system will bring showers this afternoon
and evening with KOTH the most likely to be impacted. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible east of the Cascades later this afternoon
as well. MVFR conditions are forecast to return tonight for areas
along and near the coast.

-Guerrero/Hermansen

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 313 AM PDT Sun May 25 2025/

DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)...

Overview:

Today may be most noteworthy day in the forecast as far as
impacts go given the threat of thunderstorms during a holiday
weekend. Anyone with outdoor activities should have a plan in
place for thunderstorms. Not expecting severe weather at this
time, but a couple storms could be strong with lightning and gusty
winds as the main threats. Showers may linger into Monday, but we
are not expecting thunderstorms at this time. Thereafter, warm
conditions expected through next week with the potential for
several days of temperatures near or in the 90s, mainly for
westside areas.

Further Details:

Current mid-level water vapor imagery indicates a broad area of
cyclonic flow over the Pacific advecting moisture into the region.
This open wave and PVA will transition through the region today,
but the better dynamics will be north of our area. MUCAPE values
are progged to be around a few hundred J/kg to upwards near 500
J/kg. However, the NAM--in typical fashion--is much higher with
values approaching 1000 J/kg which is likely too high due to the
NAM`s moisture bias. Bulk shear (0-6km) could be around 30 to 45
knots which is sufficient for an updraft to maintain. Perhaps the
biggest limiting factor for today is the phasing of variables to
trigger and maintain thunderstorms because there is a lot of dry
air to overcome. Additionally, some forecast soundings indicate an
elevated mixed layer that may be hard for parcels to overcome as
well. Convective allowing models have been consistently trying to
produce convective initiation along highway 97 between Chiloquin
and Chemult with strengthening occuring just over the county line
and into areas north of our forecast area. This lines up with the
highest CAPE and shear values. Can`t rule out initiation
elsewhere, but it is interesting this has been occuring
consistently the last 24 hours. DCAPE values are progged to be
around 1000-1200 J/kg which seems reasonable given the inverted-v
sounding profiles. These values could easily produce wind gusts
around 45 to 55 mph with any downburst through evaporative cooling
processes. Since it Memorial Day weekend, expecting a lot of
outdoor activities, and anyone with outdoor plans should have a
plan in place for thunderstorm activity where lightning and strong
wind gusts, especially for eastside areas. Lastly, not expecting
a lot of rainfall with these showers, but a few areas could pick
upwards near a 0.10" of rainfall. That said, most ensemble members
show very little rainfall accumulation given the isolated nature
expected today. Coastal areas will likely see the best coverage
and rainfall amounts. Lingering showers from today could go into
Monday morning before tapering off. Not expecting a lot of
activity on Monday with very limited rainfall forecast with most
of the forecast area remaining dry.

On Tuesday, another ridge will build in over the forecast area.
Then another trough comes through the PacNW late Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Next week will likely see several warm days
with well above normal (10+ degrees) temperatures into next
weekend. Currently, Saturday looks to be the overall warmest day
with many areas near or above 90 degrees.

MARINE...Updated 300 AM Sunday, May 25, 2025...Southerly winds
will develop and westerly swell increases today as a weak front
moves through the area. Conditions are expected to remain below
advisory levels, but local areas of steep seas are possible from
Cape Blanco northward. This weak front will bring chances of
showers late this afternoon and evening through Monday morning.

Stable atmospheric conditions will prevent active weather through
most of next week, but a thermal trough pattern may develop mid
week. This will result in gusty northerly winds and steep seas
Tuesday afternoon and night. Winds and seas lower Wednesday and
Thursday. On Friday, a stronger thermal trough could develop,
bringing steep to very steep seas and near gale gusts.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.

&&

$$