Likely, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

586
FXUS66 KMFR 142341
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
341 PM PST Wed Jan 14 2026

.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion Updated.


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.AVIATION...15/00Z TAFs...Fog has burned off for most areas this
afternoon with some lingering fog in the Grants Pass area and
Illinois Valley. We`ll see another round of fog and freezing fog
tonight in valleys west of the Cascades as the ridge remains in
place and calm or light winds are expected at the surface. LIFR
ceilings and visibilities are expected to develop in valley fog
tonight between 06-09z and persisting through Thursday morning and
early Thursday afternoon. Along the coast, expect mainly VFR
conditions with local IFR/LIFR. Areas of IFR/LIFR in patchy fog
are expected to spread into Coos Bay and North Bend tonight and
persist Thursday morning. Conditions will clear to VFR along the
coast Thursday afternoon.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 251 PM PST Wed Jan 14 2026/

DISCUSSION...An upper level ridge will remain in control over the
area for at least the next seven days, keeping the area dry and
unseasonably warm with generally east flow overhead. Temperatures
will be especially warm in and around Brookings, where a Chetco
Effect of downslope warming is expected today and tomorrow.

Otherwise, persistence remains the appropriate description for the
duration of the forecast. While areas outside of the inland
valleys will be relatively warm, dry, and with clear skies, the
interior valleys will continue to experience strong inversions
and stagnant air, with valleys west of the Cascades seeing
extensive fog and freezing fog each night and morning. Some of
these valleys will clear by late morning or early afternoon each
day, but some will remain socked in all day long, or will only
clear briefly in the evening before fog settles in again.

An air stagnation advisory remain ins effect, now extended out to
Tuesday next week, and in what may become a daily occurrence,
another Freezing Fog Advisory has been issued for the West Side
valleys, where low visibility and icy roads are likely to develop.

There are some signs that the ridge breaks down about midweek next
week, but as in past years, these ridges have been known to be
rather resilient, and tend to stick around longer than initially
expected, so confidence in a return to a wet pattern anytime soon
is low. -BPN

MARINE...Updated 230 PM PST Wednesday, January 14, 2026...
Westerly swells will remain in place as a thermal trough builds
tonight into Thursday. Seas are expected to peak at around 8 to 13
ft and have a notable wind wave contribution. Because of the steep
nature of the seas, a hazardous seas warning has been issued and
conditions will be hazardous smaller crafts.

The thermal trough will linger through the latter half of the week.
North to northeast winds diminish and swell gradually subsides
Thursday night, but wind waves and lingering fresh swell may
continue steep seas into early Friday. Conditions will continue to
improve Friday into the weekend, with only a slight increase in the
height of light swell early next week.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Freezing Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon PST
     Thursday for ORZ023-024-026.

     Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for ORZ023-024-
     026-029>031.

CA...Freezing Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon PST
     Thursday for CAZ080.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST
     Thursday for PZZ350-356-370.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 PM PST Thursday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$