Likely, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

174
FXUS66 KMFR 041221
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
521 AM PDT Mon May 4 2026

.DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)...

Key Points:

* Only minor impacts expected the next several days
* Warm, above normal temperatures continue this week
* Low pressure remains to our south through midweek
    - Isolated showers and thunderstorm chances continue today
    - Similar setup for Tuesday with isolated thunderstorms
* Drying trend starts Wednesday

Further Details:

A closed low remains to our south and will maintain an east to
northeast flow aloft. As we reach peak heating and convective
temperatures, we should see showers and isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and early evening. This would be mainly for areas along
and near the Cascades, westside areas south of the Umpqua divide,
and northern California. We are not expected severe weather, but
deep mixing and very dry low levels (inverted-v profiles) could lead
to occasional gusts around 45 mph. This would be very isolated to
the strongest storms today through peak heating. Lightning will be
the other hazard. This closed low doesn`t move much Tuesday, and we
may see a very similar outcome with isolated thunderstorms over
these same areas through peaking heating. Similar threats would be
expected Tuesday with occasional strong gusts and lightning as the
main threats.

High pressure aloft starts to nudge in Wednesday and will maintain
dry conditions through the end of the week. Temperatures near 90
degrees will come to fruition Wed/Thurs. Slightly cooler
temperatures expected on Fri/Sat, but temperature near 90 will be
possible again on Sunday.

-Guerrero

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of fog and low clouds are expected through today along the
coast which the possibility of these low clouds spilling into the
Umpqua basin. These areas could see IFR/MVFR conditions this
morning and early afternoon with some improvement today for KRBG.
However, KOTH will likely see these low clouds stick around
throughout this cycle. Otherwise, isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible through peak heating, which could
impact both KMFR and KLMT. At this time only went with vicinity as
confidence is low given the isolated nature of showers today.

-Guerrero

&&

.MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Monday, May 4, 2026...An extended
period of relatively calm conditions has begun, with west-northwest
swell dominated seas likely remaining below 10 ft through Friday.
Light south winds and fog are expected through today, with gradually
diminishing seas. Moderate north winds likely develop on Friday with
the return of the thermal trough. Stronger north winds are possible
Saturday into next week.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.

&&

$$