Las Cruces, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

588
FXUS66 KLOX 061113
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
413 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Updated aviation section

.SYNOPSIS...05/125 PM.

An extended period of hot conditions will continue over the
valleys and mountains into Tuesday, hottest today through Monday.
Widespread cooling is expected Tuesday through Friday. Low clouds
will continue to moderate the coastal areas, with dense fog and
low visibilities at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...06/329 AM.

Today will be the warmest day of this three day (Sat to Mon) heat
wave. 591 dam hgts will persist overhead, while at the sfc there
will be 1 mb offshore trends from both the north and east. Look
for about a degree of warming inland and 2 to 3 degrees in the
vlys and the coasts. Max temps away from the coasts will be 10 to
20 degrees above normal and excessive heat warnings and advisories
are in effect for much of the inland area. The offshore trends
will not make much of an impact on the marine layer which will be
slow to clear and will hug or cover many beaches. The marine layer
appears to have deepened some and this has reduced the amount of
dense fog to only a some patches.

Monday will be fairly similar to today, but just a little cooler.
The upper high will weaken and there will be about a mb of onshore
trends both to the north and east. Look for 2 to 3 degrees of
cooling everywhere save for the beaches which should warm a degree
or two as the marine layer stratus deck will clear better and
faster.

Look for 4 to 8 degrees of cooling on Tuesday. A weak, saggy and
dry trof will move over the area and will lower hgts to between
582 and 584 dam. The onshore flow in the afternoon will also
increase a little bit. The coastal marine layer clouds will
persist in the morning but with the capping inversion weakened by
the cooler air aloft there should be good clearing in the
afternoon.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...06/325 AM.

Not too much excitement on tap for Wed and Thu next week. The area
will be under a weak ridge with hgts only 588 dam. There will be
near neutral flow in the N/S direction and lgt in the morning
moderate in the afternoon onshore flow in the W/E direction. There
will be a decent night through morning low cloud pattern that will
cover the coasts and lower vlys, but there will be good clearing
in the afternoon as the onshore flow is not too great and the
inversion will not be too strong. Partly cloudy (mostly cloudy for
SLO county) will develop Thursday as some mid level clouds advect
in from the west. Max temps will fall 2 to 5 degrees on Wed and
then another 1 or 2 degrees on Thu. Despite this cooling max temps
away from the coasts will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

A better trof will move into the area on Friday. It will bring 3
to 6 degrees of cooling to most of the area and this will finally
bring most cst/vly temperatures to slightly below normal.

Although there is a decent amount of disagreement between the
deterministic and ensembles for the Saturday forecast it looks
like there will be some ridging and offshore flow from the north.
Skies should be clearer. The consensus max temp forecast brings 2
to 4 degrees of warming to the area which may be a little low if
some of the higher hgt ridgier solutions come to fruition.

&&

.AVIATION...06/1112Z.

Due to a data outage, current marine layer depth and inversion
height data is not available for KLAX.

Moderate confidence in the current forecast for coastal terminals.
High confidence in the current forecast for valley and desert
terminals. Higher confidence exists in flight categories versus
timing.

LIFR conditions are likely at coastal terminals through at least
16Z, then conditions will likely improve at least one flight
category between 16Z and 18Z. There is a low-to-moderate chance of
VLIFR conditions through 15Z. There is a chance of scattering out
as late as 23Z. An early return of LIFR conditions should be
expected at coastal terminals.

At valley and deserts, VFR conditions are expected through the
period, except for a high chance of sub-VFR conditions at Los
Angeles County valley terminals.

KLAX...LIFR conditions will continue through at least 16Z. There
is a 40 percent chance of VLIFR conditions through 15Z. Conditions
could improve to the IFR category as soon as 16Z, or as late as
19Z. VFR conditions could develop as soon as 20Z or as late 22Z.
LIFR to IFR conditions could spread in as early as 23Z or as late
as 04Z.

KBUR...There is a 50 percent of sub-VFR conditions through 15Z,
otherwise VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.MARINE...06/301 AM.

Moderate-to-high confidence in the current forecast. Higher
confidence exists in the forecast for seas. Less confidence in the
current forecast for winds.

Winds and seas will very likely remain below Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) levels through Monday afternoon, except for a low-to-
moderate (20-30 percent) chance of SCA level winds this afternoon
and evening near Point Dume and Point Conception.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands
and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, there is a
high-to-likely (50-70 percent) chance of SCA level winds
developing after Monday afternoon, especially during the afternoon
and evening hours. The highest chances will be for the waters
beyond 10 NM offshore and for the waters between Point Sal south
to San Nicolas Island. There is a low-to-moderate (20-30 percent)
chance of low end Gale Force winds Tuesday evening through
Wednesday night.

Inside the southern California bight, there is a low-to-moderate
(20-40 percent) chance of SCA winds for the western portion of the
Santa Barbara Channel each afternoon and evening from Tuesday
through Friday.

A shallow marine layer will continue to generate patchy dense fog
across portions of the coastal waters through at least Monday
morning, especially in the overnight through morning hours.
Visibilities of one nautical mile or less can be expected.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect until 8 PM PDT
      Monday for zones
      38-88-342>345-351>353-356>358-369>376-378>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Monday for
      zones 341-348. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...RK/RS

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox