Lancaster, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

827
FXUS66 KLOX 220916
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
216 AM PDT Thu May 22 2025

Updated Marine Section

.SYNOPSIS...21/110 PM.

A cooling trend will begin Thursday with highs falling below
normal Friday and Saturday. A return of night and morning low
clouds and fog is expected for coast and some valleys as well.
Breezy and dry conditions focused across the interior will lead to
heightened fire weather concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...21/812 PM.

***UPDATE***

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate clear skies for
most areas except for some stratus/dense fog between Catalina
Island and the LA coast. Current sounding data indicates marine
inversion remains very shallow (around 500 feet deep). As for
winds, west to northwest winds, gusting 25-40 MPH, are observed
across the Antelope Valley and the Santa Ynez range.

Forecast-wise for the immediate short term, main "concern" will be
the extent of the marine layer stratus/fog. Overnight, high
resolution models indicate an eddy circulation will develop over
the bight. With a shallow, but strong inversion, in place, stratus
and fog should become more widespread across the coastal plain,
south of Point Conception. Looking at the HREF cloud forecast,
stratus will likely creep northward up to around the Carpinteria
area late tonight. The inversion should not deepen appreciably
overnight, so dense fog will continue to be an issues. Still too
much uncertainty in overnight coverage to issue any advisories
this evening. However, the night shift will need to monitor the
situation.

Other than the marine layer stratus/fog, no significant weather
issues are expected overnight. So, current forecast has a good
handle on the immediate short term and no big changes are
anticipated.

***From Previous Discussion***

The heat advisory in the valleys is limping along as the air mass
ended up not being as warm as models had originally predicted and
light offshore flow didn`t materialize either. Highs in the lower
to mid 90s in the warmer valleys are 8-12 degrees above normal
but not really worthy of heat advisories, especially when
factoring overnight lows in the 50s. Will leave it up for this
afternoon but it will end at 5pm with no heat hazards for
tomorrow.

Dense fog is still lingering this afternoon in the Santa Monica
Bay down to around Catalina Island. Expect that will continue
overnight and possibly spread up the coast towards Ventura and
Santa Barbara early Thursday.

A weak trough moving into the Pac NW Thu and a stronger one Friday
and Saturday will bring significant cooling to the area. Just
minor cooling Thursday (3-6 degrees), then more substantial
cooling Fri/Sat on onshore flow increases as does the marine
layer depth, which should reach the valleys by the weekend if not
before. Highs are expected be below normal in most areas by
Saturday, and as early as Friday along the Central Coast.
Interior areas will notice an increase in afternoon southwest
winds as well.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...21/154 PM.

No significant weather concerns Sunday through the middle of next
week. A quick little ridge pops up Sunday with a corresponding
light offshore trend so temperatures will likely jump a few
degrees most areas with earlier marine layer clearing. But then
quickly returning to a trough pattern Monday through Wednesday
with slightly cooler temperatures. Most days will feature at
least some marine layer clouds across the coast and some valleys
during the the night and morning hours. Highs in most areas will
be within 2-4 degrees of normal.

&&

.AVIATION...22/0637Z.

Around 0530Z, the marine layer depth was around 600 feet deep at
KLAX. The top of the inversion was 1400 feet with a temperature
near 25 degrees Celsius.

Low-to-moderate confidence in the current forecast for coastal
terminals, otherwise high confidence in the current forecast for
valley and desert terminals. There is with a moderate-to-likely
(40-70 percent) chance of LIFR to IFR conditions developing at
coastal terminals through 14Z, and lingering into at least 16Z.
There is a low-to-moderate (20-40 percent) chance of VLIFR
conditions at coastal terminals through 14Z. There is a moderate
(30-40 percent) chance that timing of arrival and scattering out
could delay by up to two hours. Periods of moderate to strong
low-level wind shear and turbulence are possible after 22Z at
KSBA.

KLAX...There is a 70 percent chance of LIFR to IFR conditions and
30 percent chance of VLIFR conditions developing through 14Z. VFR
conditions could develop as soon as 16Z, or as late as 18Z, but
there is a 10 percent chance of MVFR visibilities lingering
through the late afternoon hours. Any easterly winds should remain
less than 7 knots.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period. No wind
impacts are expected at this time.

&&

.MARINE...22/215 AM.

High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and
seas continuing through Memorial Day Weekend in the Outer Waters,
with a 40-70% chance for GALES through late Friday night. Chances
for Gales decrease to 10-20% Saturday through Monday.

For the northern Inner Waters, high confidence in a combination
of SCA winds and/or seas through Friday, with highest chances in
the afternoon and evenings. There is a 60% chance for Gale force
winds this afternoon and evening, and a 40% chance Friday. There
is a 40-50% chance for SCA winds at times over the weekend.

There is a 60% chance for SCA level winds in the western portion
of the Santa Barbara Channel this afternoon through late tonight.
SCA level winds will be more widespread Friday, including
reaching the Ventura County coastline, and there is a 30% chance
for Gale Force winds in the western portion of the channel. There
is a moderate chance for SCA level winds across the western
portion of the channel each afternoon and evening over the
remainder of Memorial Day Weekend.

For the Inner Waters off the Los Angeles and Orange County coasts,
high confidence in conditions remaining below advisory levels
today. There is a 20-40% chance for local gusts to 25 kt to occur
Friday through Monday in the afternoons near Malibu and in the
western portion of the zone. Highest chances are Friday and
Sunday.

Dense fog with reduced visibility is possible at times through
this evening.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
      Friday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 645-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT
      this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Friday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
      Saturday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Thompson
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox