Kramer Junction, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

849
FXUS65 KVEF 151738
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
448 AM PDT Tue Apr 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Today through midweek, expect similar temperatures. Late-
week, a dynamic weather system moves into the region, which will
increase chances of precipitation, gusty winds, and will cool off
temperatures substantially.
&&

.UPDATE...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developed
this morning in Clark and northern Mohave counties. Looking at the
12Z LAS sounding, this precipitation likely developed on the nose of
an inversion and weak jet sitting above the surface- a parcel lifted
from this inversion would encounter weak instability as lapse rates
were very steep through the mid-levels. The addition of strong
diffluence aloft allowing for additional lift along with increased
PWATs of 0.3-0.5 inches allowed for this precipitation to develop.
Light rain was reported at the surface along with brief gusty winds.
As the morning continued and we lost the surface inversion, moisture
decreased and the favorable lift point was lost, and precipitation
has become less in the past hour. Elsewhere, it was dry with east to
southeast winds gusting 20-25 MPH in southern Nevada and western
Arizona setting up after sunrise.

The strong forcing aloft with continue to sit over the Southern
Great Basin through the afternoon. Precipitation may struggle to
develop compared to this morning as moisture decreases through the
afternoon. The best chance for precipitation this afternoon in the
Southern Great Basin will be in the terrain due to orographic lift
on south to southeast flow. Any precipitation today will remain
light though and impacts are not expected. In general, expecting a
dry day in most locations under partly to mostly sunny skies. High
temperatures this afternoon will be comparable to yesterday.

-Nickerson-
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...448 AM PDT Tue Apr 15 2025.
.SHORT TERM...Today and Wednesday.

Last night, a shortwave pushed inland and brought modest moisture to
the region by way of a northward moving swath of sprinkles across
the forecast area. Meanwhile, an upper-level low continues to deepen
in the southeastern Pacific Ocean and will continue to meander
closer to the coastline over the next few days, ushering moisture
into the Desert Southwest. Additionally, a trough will start to drop
through the Intermountain West, placing our forecast area in a
convergence zone. This combination of moisture advection and
convergence ascent will result in increased PoPs across the southern
Great Basin on Wednesday and gusty south-southwest winds. Rainfall
amounts will generally be low, but will favor the higher terrain
with occasional lightning possible. More detail regarding these
phasing systems and what that looks like for late-week into the
weekend can be found in the LONG TERM discussion.

Wednesday will be the last day of "warm" temperatures for the week,
with persistent "Minor" Heat Risk across desert valleys.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.

The closed low and northern shortwave trough begin to phase on
Thursday, resulting in a larger, positively-tilted trough over the
western US. At the surface, guidance shows a cold front sliding
southward through the southern Great Basin and northern Mojave
Desert. The frontal boundary should serve as the focus for
precipitation as moisture pools along ahead of it and underneath
the colder air aloft. Expecting scattered shower and isolated
thunderstorms to develop along the front Thursday afternoon, with
activity potentially continuing Thursday night and Friday as the
front sags southward. There`s a fair amount of uncertainty in
model guidance regarding the convective environment Thursday-
Friday, mainly due to discrepancies in the magnitude of low-level
moisture and its overlap with the coldest air aloft. However, it
is likely that at least modest instability (100+ J/kg) will occur.
With wet bulb zero heights roughly 4500-6000 ft AGL in forecast
soundings, would not be surprised to see graupel and/or small hail
with the more intense convection. While PWATs are forecast to be
above the 90th percentile of climatology, this is nothing like
monsoonal moisture, so it`ll take training storms to cause any
flood concerns, and that would likely be localized and relatively
minor. On the wintry side, snow levels drop from over 8000 ft down
to ~6500 ft, so some late-season minor snow accumulations are
likely in the Spring Mountains and Sierra.

Other than the precipitation chances, noteworthy changes to the
weather include gusty winds and below-normal temperatures. Strongest
winds are expected Thursday, with minor wind impacts likely (70%
chance) across western San Bernardino County. Elsewhere, chances for
wind impacts are 30-50%, with widespread gusts of 25-40 mph
expected. Once the low closes off over our area on Friday, the risk
for impactful winds decreases. Temperature-wise, highs return to
seasonal values on Thursday but drop 5-15 degrees below normal on
Friday.

As this system pushes east and moves out over the weekend, dry
conditions return and temperatures moderate. By Sunday-Monday,
temperatures are forecast to be near-normal for mid-April. While
we`ll likely stay dry, the pattern doesn`t necessarily go quiet
next week as subsequent weak troughs may induce Springtime winds.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Light
winds late this morning will become predominately southeast (130-160
true) after 20Z.  Sustained winds are expected to remain around 10
knots, but there is a 40% chance of seeing a few gusts to 15 knots
between 19Z and 01Z.  By evening, winds will veer more to the south,
and the typical southwest drainage winds should develop by mid-
evening.  A period of southeast winds is likely again tomorrow
afternoon, although speeds are forecast to be higher, with a greater
than 50 percent chance of gusts to 20 knots during the afternoon.
VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow, with mainly SCT skies
with bases AOA 15kft AGL through the period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Conditions at the Las
Vegas area TAF sites will be similar to what is described for Harry
Reid above, except winds at KHND are expected to remain more
southerly throughout the period.  Elsewhere, winds will tend to
follow typical diurnal direction trends with a few gusts to 25kts
possible at KBIH this afternoon and at KDAG overnight tonight.  A
few convective showers will persist north of the Las Vegas valley
this afternoon, resulting in locally reduced visibilities and CIGs
around 10kft AGL.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the
region through tomorrow, with mainly FEW to SCT skies with bases AOA
15kft AGL.er 10KT, with VFR conditions and passing mid and high
clouds.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soulat
LONG TERM...Woods
AVIATION...Planz

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter