Horse Creek, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

763
FXUS66 KMFR 241118
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
318 AM PST Sun Nov 24 2024

.DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)...

Overview:

Recent moisture has led to the development of dense fog across
portions of the Rogue Valley. An advisory is in place this morning
for visibilities of a quarter mile of less. The fog will burn off
late this morning as wind speeds pick up today. In fact, we added a
wind advisory for today in the Rogue Valley, and this will be in
addition to the Wind Advisory already in place for Shasta Valley.
Then our attention turns to snow impacts as precipitation spreads
west to east today through tomorrow night. Then we get a break in
precipitation through the Thanksgiving weekend starting Tuesday
evening.

Further Details:

An area of cyclonic circulation will be noted northwest and
eventually west of the area through Tuesday before this closed upper
low finally pushes inland. In the wake of this departing low, we
will have a trend of dry weather through early next week which will
include a dry pattern through Thanksgiving. Wednesday in
particularlooks nice with plenty of sunshine, light winds, and
cool seasonable temperatures.

A vorticity maxima will develop off the coast today and spread
energy over the forecast area through the next 36-48 hours as it
slowly advances east towards the coast. 1000mb-500mb moisture will
ramp up along the coast this morning/afternoon, and will spread east
through tomorrow night. Not seeing a lot of instability inland, but
at least a couple hundred to upwards of 500 J/kg of CAPE could be
realized over the waters and near the coast the next couple of
afternoons. Not expecting severe weather, but could see a couple
thunderstorms near the coast and as far inland as the coastal
ranges. Areas in and around Mount Shasta will start to see snow
impacts today/tonight, especially on Highway 89 which would
include both Snowmans Summit and Dead Horse Summit. Within this
Winter Storm Warning we could have snowfall rates approach 2"/hr
between 6pm and 9pm as strong omega values will be present within
the DGZ, and then rates could be around 1"/hr Sunday night into
Monday morning as omega starts to decrease. This means both the
Sunday evening commute and the Monday morning commute could
experience dangerous driving conditions, especially this evening
as wind gusts could be around 40 mph within the Winter Storm
Warning. This means we could have visibility restrictions within
the warned area making driving further complicated. Cascades will
experience snowfall as well, but mostly at the higher elevations
and only relatively light amounts.

-Guerrero

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFs)...

With enough clearing and calm winds early this morning, fog and
low stratus has developed within most area valleys, including at
Grants Pass, Medford, and in the vicinity of Klamath Falls.
However, some of these places keep the cloud deck most of the
night (Roseburg) and guidance indicates VFR prevailing. We
maintain LIFR fog in the Medford TAF toward Sunday morning since
we`ve already seen quick radiational cooling this evening. We`ve
left it out of Roseburg, but we`ll continue to monitor and amend,
if needed.

Meanwhile, another front will be approaching the coast from the
Pacific and this will bring the potential for low level wind speed
shear to North Bend, Roseburg and Medford by Sunday morning. Wind
speeds 1500-2000 feet above the ground are 25-30kt greater than
surface winds (light just below the inversion). So, we`ve included
this in the TAFs for those terminals. The front will bring some
rain and MVFR ceilings beginning late Sunday morning to the coast,
spreading inland during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible over the coastal waters. Breezy to gusty S-SE winds are
possible Sunday afternoon in the Shasta Valley, southern Rogue
Valleys and over the East Side.

Precipitation continues into Sunday night, with freezing levels
hovering around 4000 feet.

-BPN/Spilde

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Sunday, November 24, 2024...South
gales continue today with very steep and hazardous seas. Isolated
thunderstorms are also possible. Low pressure moves onshore Sunday
evening and winds will decrease, but conditions remain unsettled
through at least Tuesday morning. Then, high pressure builds for
the remainder of the week with north winds and relatively low
seas.

-BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 8 PM PST this evening
     for ORZ026.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ026.

CA...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 8 PM PST this evening
     for CAZ081.

     Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM PST Tuesday
     for CAZ082.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 7 PM PST this evening for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM PST Tuesday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$