Horse Creek, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

504
FXUS66 KMFR 142110
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
210 PM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)...

Key Points:

* Minor to Moderate impacts expected through this forecast

* Moderate impacts from heatwave through Tuesday
    - Temperatures upwards of 20-25 degrees above normal
    - Many westside valleys with highs around 100 degrees

* Elevated fire weather conditions through the heatwave
    - Fuels are the main driver for not issuing a Red Flag Warning
    - Fuels likely become more receptive next week after heatwave

* Increasing signal for thunderstorms Friday/Saturday
    - Mainly northern California and eastside areas
    - Friday has the potential for severe weather

Further Details:

An area of 500mb high pressure remains over the Pacific located
roughly between 130W/140W and approximately 40N, resulting in a
dry northerly to northwesterly flow over the forecast area through
Tuesday. By Wednesday, the high starts to break down, and by
Thursday we will see a trough emerge over the Pacific at the same
time the high moves east/southeast over the Desert Southwest. In
the meantime, the area of high pressure will keep highs well above
normal for this time of year, and has resulted in a Heat Advisory
for much of the area through Tuesday. The eastside gets into the
Heat Advisory mix starting tomorrow. That said, high temperatures
will remain above normal through the forecast period with only a
relatively slight cool down Friday and through the weekend.

The trough off the California coast will produce south to
southwesterly flow in the upper levels over the forecast area.
This will combine with the return of moisture and instability is
expected to increase on Friday and Saturday. MUCAPE values could
be around 500 J/kg to upwards near 1000 J/kg. Overall, Friday has
the best potential for thunderstorms (possible severe) as bulk
shear values reach 25-35 knots. The CAPE/shear combination may
allow for a few updrafts to maintain which could produce strong
erratic gusts/downburst and hail around 0.50"-1.00". This would
be in addition to the threat of lightning.

Fire weather will need closer monitoring once the heat wave ends
and fuels start to trend higher towards the 90th percentile and in
some cases potentially the 97th percentile. This will become
especially important on Friday with the threat of lightning over
dry fuels.

-Guerrero

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFs)...

North to northwest winds will not be as strong this afternoon
with breezy northerly winds limited to the coast north of Cape
Blanco. Coastal IFR/LIFR presently south of Brookings will surge
northward late today and tonight. LIFR is expected to reach
Brookings by early this evening and then spread north to Cape
Blanco tonight. Otherwise, clear skies/VFR conditions will persist
across the area.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Sunday, June 14, 2026...Gusty north
winds will weaken temporarily today, but steep seas will linger
for the outer waters as well as from Cape Blanco northward due to
fresh swell and residual wind seas. A southerly wind surge of low
clouds and fog today into tonight could bring reduced visibilities
to areas south of Gold Beach and within 20 nm from shore.

The thermal trough quickly reforms Monday and Tuesday, bringing
the return of strong north winds and steep seas. Seas may become
very steep on Tuesday. This pattern is expected to continue
through through Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER (Updated at 2pm Today)...

Fuel conditions are the main driver behind not issuing a Red Flag
Warning. Based on conversations with fuel experts, fuel conditions
are currently low enough to keep fire behavior low to moderate.
However, conditions will be hot, dry, and breezy each afternoon and
evening through Tuesday. This is in addition to gusty east winds and
poor recoveries expected across area ridges and peaks through this
same time period. This means elevated fire weather conditions will
be present through early next week. As fuels likely become more
receptive after the heatwave, fire behavior conditions may become
high, and this would result in Red Flag Warnings when breezy/windy
conditions are coupled with low RH. With the threat of lightning
over dry fuels Friday and Saturday, we may need to consider warnings
late next if conditions are warranted. Will continue to monitor
fuels and the threat of lightning late next week.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ021-023>026-029.

CA...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ080>085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 5
     AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$