Healdsburg, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

629
FXUS66 KMTR 232044
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
144 PM PDT Fri May 23 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 142 PM PDT Fri May 23 2025

Breezy onshore winds and seasonal temperatures continue through
midweek. Above normal temperatures are likely to return next
weekend across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 142 PM PDT Fri May 23 2025

A subtle upper level trough continues to progress through the
region. This will help the marine layer to deepen to around 2000ft
tonight and bring more widespread low level stratus to the Bay Area
and Central Coast. Breezy winds, particularly across the marine
environment, coast, and elevated terrain, will continue into the
weekend and peak between 20 to 25 mph. Locally higher gusts to
around 30 mph are possible in areas where funneling is favored (for
example, Altamont Pass). High temperatures on Saturday remain
similar to those on Friday with highs in the 70s across the interior
and 50s to 60s along the coast. Favored hot spots (portions of the
North Bay and far eastern Contra Costa/Alameda Counties) may reach
the low 80s. In terms of fire weather, conditions have improved in
comparison to yesterday given winds easing across the region and the
marine layer deepening. However, it is still important to be aware
and take precautions this weekend if utilizing any sort of flame
outdoors. Winds will still be breezy in the afternoon and many of
our smaller fuels (ie. grasses) have cured. While our overall risk
is lower, grass fires can still develop and spread particularly if
the proper precautions are not taken for campfires or other outdoors
activities. If you are heading to the beach this weekend - marine
conditions will be hazardous for small crafts due to northwesterly
winds gusting between 25 to 40 mph across the waters. Additionally,
recent buoy observations show ocean temperatures are in the low to
mid 50s. Water temperatures that cold can incapacitate even the most
experienced swimmer in minutes and may make self rescue nearly
impossible. In order to prevent this, make sure to take the
necessary safety precautions if going in the water.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 142 PM PDT Fri May 23 2025

Shortwave upper level ridging builds in on Sunday before another
weak upper level disturbance and associated weak surface cold front
pass through Tuesday. Longwave upper level ridging will then build
in Wednesday through late week with a potential cut-off low
developing offshore of CA. The placement of this cut-off low will be
more impactful for next weekends weather (end of May/beginning of
June) which we will discuss shortly. Sunday through Monday -
temperatures will hold fairly steady in the 50s to 60s along the
coast and 70s across the interior. Temperatures warm on Tuesday into
the mid 70s to low 80s across the interior before dropping a few
degrees (2-4 degrees) on Wednesday after a weak cold front moves
through. As longwave ridging builds in, temperatures will start to
increase Thursday into next weekend. There is some uncertainty as to
if temperatures will start to increase more Wednesday vs Thursday
due to the aforementioned cut-off low. The ECMWF shows this cut-off
low staying offshore and moving inland over southern CA which would
help keep our CWA slightly cooler. In comparison, the GFS shows this
cut-off low pushing in over the Central Coast with offshore winds
more likely in this scenario. The scenario proposed by the GFS would
support warmer temperatures with the NBM showing a wide range of
possible temperatures between the 10th and 90th percentiles (70s vs
upper 90s to low 100s). This event is still almost a week away so
forecast confidence is likely to increase over the next couple of
days. With this in mind, take advantage of the relatively seasonal
weather we have this week before warmer weather returns next weekend
and we enter the summer months. As we enter the dry season, remember
to keep in mind one less spark, one less wildfire!
&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM PDT Fri May 23 2025

CIGs are eroding for most areas leading to widespread VFR for all
but HAF this afternoon. Moderate to breezy winds build across much
of the region through the afternoon but look to reduce into the
evening. As winds reduce, low clouds move farther inland, affecting
the Monterey Bay terminals in the evening and the SF Bay into the
late night. Moments of IFR CIGs look to affect LVK and APC into
Saturday morning, with pockets of fog looking to affect STS during
that time. Cloud cover erodes into late Saturday morning for most
areas, but looks persists beyond the TAF period for HAF and the
Monterey Bay terminals.

Vicinity of SFO...Expect VFR to last into the late night. Breezy to
gusty west winds are building and look to last into the evening
before reducing slightly. These winds become lighter into the late
night as IFR CIGs fill over the terminal. Breezy west winds build
again into Saturday afternoon as CIGs erode.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...CIGs are retreating as more moderate to
breezy winds build for the afternoon. IFR cigs look to return
quickly into the evening as winds reduce. CIGS lower at MRY further
into the night with some chances for fog and mist in the area. CIGs
are expected to last beyond the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 937 AM PDT Fri May 23 2025

Hazardous marine conditions continue across the waters as strong
northwesterly breezes with near gale to gale force gusts and rough
seas persist. Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes and moderate
to rough seas will prevail through Monday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for SF Bay N of
     Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-
     10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
     Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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