Hammond Ranch, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

313
FXUS66 KMFR 131121
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
421 AM PDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows marine stratus along the
coast, coastal valleys, and inland over the Coquille Basin. The
marine stratus will remain confined to these areas through
daybreak, then will gradually burn off inland away from the coast.
Elsewhere, it will remain clear and dry. Afternoon temperatures
will be cooler than yesterday, but still above normal for this
time of the year. The typical afternoon and early evening breezes
are likely again for the interior westside valleys and portions
of the eastside.

Dry weather will continue through Thursday. Onshore flow will
increase allowing the marine stratus to push farther inland into
the Umpqua Basin and possibly right up to the Umpqua Divide.

Upper troughing will set up over the area Friday into the weekend.
The net result will be further cooling with temperatures below
normal for the interior. A cold front will slowly move south into
the northwest part of the area. As usual the NBM is too high, and
too far south and east the extent and probability of
precipitation. Most likely scenario will be intermittent light
rain in Coos, northwest Douglas county, and northern Cascades
Friday afternoon. Even then precip amounts may only end up bring
0.01-0.05 of an inch.

The upper trough will deepen some (500mb heights lowering) Friday
night into Saturday morning which will allow the front to move
south. The best chance for precipitation will be along the coast,
coastal mountains, north ofthe Umpqua Divide, and northern
Cascades. The NBM solution is once again too far south and inland
with the extent of the precipitation and the forecast has been
adjusted to keep the best chance of rain to the above mentioned
areas.

Saturday afternoon, the front will move inland and precipitation
will become showery in that it will be convective in nature.
Guidance shows instability will be marginal at best in the
northern Cascades, and northern Klamath and Lake County and have a
slight chance of thunderstorms confined to these areas. Meanwhile,
convective showers are possible along and west of the Cascades.

Sunday into early next week, the parent upper low from the Gulf of
Alaska will remain parked just south of the Alaska Panhandle with
a broad southwest flow aloft over our area. Instability Sunday
afternoon is marginal along with weak shortwaves moving through,
therefore isolated storms are possible again for portions of the
eastside and Cascades.

It will be more stable the first half of next week, with no
threat for thunderstorms. Temperatures will be on a slow rebound,
with values near seasonal norms. -Petrucelli


&&

.AVIATION...13/12Z TAFs...Along the coast and just offshore. Marine
stratus will result in IFR and local LIFR conditions that will
likely last for most of the TAF period. It`s possible for ceilings
to improve for a brief period of time late this afternoon, but
confidence is not high enough to include improving conditions for
the North Bend TAF.

Inland, marine stratus will remain confined to the Coquille Basin,
with clouds burning off late in the morning (17-18z) with clear
skies in the afternoon. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will continue
through the TAF period with gusty afternoon and early evening
breezes. -Petrucelli


&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Wednesday, August 13, 2025...The
thermal trough rebuilds today into Thursday, with moderate to
occasionally strong winds in the southern waters. Winds will be
strongest from about 2 nm from shore out to 20 nm from shore and
south of Port Orford. Broad upper level troughing arrives late in
the week, disrupting the thermal trough pattern and allowing
conditions to become relatively calm through the weekend.
-Petrucelli


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 AM PDT Tuesday, August 12, 2025...Dry
weather will continue through Thursday. Afternoon temperatures for
the interior will be cooler than yesterday. However. relative
humidities will be low and we still expect gusty afternoon and early
evening breezes for the Rogue, portions ofthe Illinois Valley and
portions of Fire zone 624. Thus a Red Flag Warning remains in effect
for winds and low relative humidity.

Upper troughing remains in place Thursday with further cooling.
We`ll still have the typical afternoon and early evening breezes
east of the Cascades and interior westside valleys, but relative
humidities will be higher, therefore critical conditions are
unlikely to be met.

An upper low from the Gulf of Alaska will drop south toward western
B.C. in the Gulf of Alaska Friday. The leading edge of a cold front
will approach the area during the day Friday and will bring
intermittent light rain to portions of Fire zones 615 and 616. Since
the front is nearly parallel to the upper flow, it will be slow to
move into the area.

The front will continue to move south Friday night into Saturday
morning and could increase the chance of very light rain to the rest
of the coast, coastal mountains and Douglas County.

Saturday, the front will move farther inland with convective showers
pushing inland. Instability parameters are marginal at best Saturday
afternoon and a few isolated thunderstorms are possible in northern
Fire zones 624 and 625, and portions of northern California,
southern Cascades and Siskiyous.

Sunday, a broad upper low will set up north of the area with a
southwesterly flow along with week shortwaves moving through.
Guidance suggest marginal instability east of the Cascades, and it`s
in these areas where it could be unstable enough for isolated
thunderstorms. It`s still a ways out there and details could change,
so it`s something we`ll have to continue to watch closely. Stay
tuned.

Upper troughing remains in place for the start of next week, but it
expected to remain dry with temperatures near seasonal norms.
-Petrucelli


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
     evening for ORZ620-622.

     Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
     evening for ORZ624.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday
     for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$