Hammond Ranch, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

415
FXUS66 KMFR 180021
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
421 PM PST Tue Dec 17 2024

.DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)...

Overview:

Rainfall chances along/near the coast and inland areas on the
westside will continue through the week. Then a stronger system
will bring widespread precipitation (rainfall and snowfall) across
the area starting this weekend. Leading up to this weekends
system, snow levels will be too high to warrant any impacts, but
by this weekend we may need to reevaluate that. Early snowfall
indications for this weekend (above 6000 feet) are on the lower
end (<4.0") for this system. Otherwise, breezy to gusty winds
expected near the coast and some of the ridgetops near the coast
through tomorrow morning.

Further Details:

A serious of shortwave troughs will pass through the region over
the next few days, and this will bring rainfall to many coastal
areas, as well as westside inland locations. PWATs are not
concerning (0.50"-1.00"), and rainfall amounts are not going to be
too concerning outside of nuisance potential ponding/flooding in
Curry County. This could impact the morning drive tomorrow for
areas along highway 101, but rainfall amounts will be higher east
of the highway across higher elevations. The probability from the
NBM for 0.50" of rainfall or greater over a 6 hour window does not
exceed 10 percent through the forecast until the weekend system.
And the areas where rainfall is expected this weekend can
certainly take that much rainfall over that period. The
probability for 0.50" or greater of rainfall increases to 30%-50%
for this weekend across southwest Oregon and northwest California.
Snow levels this week are high, and we are not expecting much--if
any--impacts from snowfall with snow levels above 6000 feet. Its
not until next week (Tuesday timeframe) that we start to see snow
levels drop below 5000 feet.

Deterministic guidance shows varying placements of this weekend
system with some guidance suggesting a deeper low while others
suggesting more of an open wave. However, the general consensus is
a troughing pattern over the PacNW through this weekend.
Depending on the strength of the low, we could have impacts from
the coast all the way through the eastside. This would include
potential impacts from wind, rainfall, and snowfall. Its too early
to say with much confidence the scope of these impacts, so stay
tuned as we refine these details over the coming days.

-Guerrero

&&

.AVIATION...18/00Z TAFS...VFR levels under high ceilings are present
across northern California and southern Oregon this evening. Gusty
winds have been present along the coast, and are expected to be
present until Wednesday morning.

Overnight conditions will be determined by an approaching warm
front. Low ceilings and visibilities are expected to develop in some
low-lying areas, such as around Medford and Klamath Falls. The front
could also bring low ceilings into the Umpqua Valley. Additionally,
low flight levels could develop in the Umpqua Valley behind the
front if conditions are right. Approximate timing of any level
chances are included, but confidence is slight to moderate given the
complexities of the front`s effects.

Low level wind shear remains in the TAF forecast, especially for
southern Oregon. In general, south-southwest winds of 40 to 50 kts
will be present at 2000 feet. These winds will dissipate west of the
Cascades by early Wednesday morning and east of the Cascades just
before Wednesday afternoon. -TAD

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Tuesday, December 17, 2024...Strong,
south Gales will linger into Wednesday morning, and a Gale
Warning has been issued for these conditions. The strongest winds
will occur north of Port Orford beyond 5NM, except closer near
Cape Blanco. In all, wave heights could be up to 20 feet with a
period of around 15 seconds. After, southerly winds will weaken
and seas will begin to lower, although at least steep seas will
remain through Thursday morning.

-Schaaf/Hermansen

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 PM PST Tuesday, December 17,
2024...The unsettled weather will bring increasing swells this
week into the weekend. This will create a moderate risk for
sneaker waves with unusually high run-ups on Thursday morning.
Unsuspecting beachgoers could be knocked down and swept to sea. In
addition, logs and rocks can be easily moved by water -- but not
people. Jetties, logs, and rocks are not safe; and always keep
your eye on the sea.

Then as things stable`s the next swell arrives bringing large
breaking waves between 22 to 28 feet to Oregon beaches Friday into
Saturday. A brief lull is expected Sunday, and another system
could bring even higher swells causing breaking waves from 25 to
30 feet Sunday evening through Monday. This is dependent on
several factors several days away, so confidence is Medium on the
sneaker waves and the first portion of the high surf and low for
the secondary high surf on Sunday into Monday. This could cause
dangerous beach conditions where beach erosion and/or damage to
exposed infrastructure will be possible. Stay tuned to the
forecast for updates.

-Schaaf

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 7 AM PST Wednesday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$