Hackamore, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

910
FXUS66 KMFR 091533
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
833 AM PDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.DISCUSSION...Seasonably warm temperatures are expected across
northern California and southern Oregon today. Coastal areas look
to be in the mid 60s to low 70s, while west side valleys will be
in the mid 80s to low 90s. Areas east of the Cascades are forecast
to be in the 80s. Satellite imagery shows smoke from fires in
western Siskiyou County lingering in the Klamath River Valley. Air
quality observations indicate moderate air quality in parts of
the Rogue Valley (Medford, Phoenix, Talent, Ashland) and as far
south as Yreka. Air Quality in Southern Klamath County (Klamath
Falls), eastern Siskiyou County, and western Modoc County is also
being affected. Northwest winds will prevent substantial
accumulation in most areas, but areas near fires may see
continuing poor air quality.

Instability around an upper trough and daytime heating still
support slight thunderstorm chances (10-20%) this afternoon in
Lake County. These chances decrease quickly this evening as the
upper trough moves eastward and out of the area.

Please see the previous discussion for more details on the short-
and long-term forecast. -TAD

&&

.AVIATION...09/12Z TAFs...A marine layer of fog/stratus is very
evident on satellite across coastal areas putting KOTH in IFR/LIFR
conditions. Expecting these conditions to persist most of this
cycle minus some afternoon improvements. Another marine layer is
expected tonight. Roseburg may see MVFR clouds develop if this
marine layer can spill into th Umpqua, but at this time confidence
was not high enough to include this chance. Otherwise, expecting
VFR conditions for inland terminals through the next 24 hours.

-Guerrero


&&

.MARINE...Updated 830 AM PDT Wednesday, July 9, 2025...Below advisory
winds and seas continue today. A thermal trough develops tonight,
bringing gusty north winds. Steep wind-driven seas are expected south
of Cape Blanco on Thursday morning. Steep seas will likely expand
north of Cape Blanco late Thursday into Friday, with very steep
seas and possible gales south of Cape Blanco through the weekend.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 339 AM PDT Wed Jul 9 2025/

DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)...

Overview:

Impacts revolve around the small thunderstorm potential later this
afternoon for mainly Klamath and Lake counties as well as the
heat risk starting this weekend when westside valleys could see
triple digits through early next week. After today, the
thunderstorm and rain chances diminish significantly with no
reasonable chances through the next seven days and likely beyond
that through at least middle of the month. There is a Red Flag
warning out to account for the lightning over dry fuels for
eastside areas this afternoon and early evening.

Further Details:

A shortwave trough will continue to pass over the forecast area
today leading to larger scale ascent for eastside areas this
afternoon with MUCPAE values approaching 800 J/kg in some instances.
This coupled with convective temperatures being reached will lead to
a chance (~20%) for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and early
evening before chances diminish near/after sunset. Not expecting
severe weather, but a couple storms could produce gusty/strong wind
gusts as DCAPE values are progged to be around 1000-1200 J/kg. With
the passage of the trough, there could be some isolated gusty winds
this afternoon around 30 mph for eastside areas where deep mixing
will be present.

After today, a mostly zonal flow pattern aloft will be evident with
500mb heights generally rising this weekend through early next week.
This will likely lead to above normal temperatures and hot
conditions for some of our westside valleys where triple digits will
be possible. These conditions will be about 10 degrees above normal,
but will likely fall short of any records. We will need to consider
a potential heat advisory starting on Saturday. Additionally, low
temperatures may only drop to the low to mid 60s overnight, so we
wont see much relief overnight during this stretch of warm weather.
To put things into perspective, the probability for Medford to reach
at least 100 degrees is about 65%-75% each day Saturday through
Tuesday.

-Guerrero

FIRE WEATHER...

Today, a low will move inland across northern California. This
will maintain a slight chance to chance of thunderstorms across
eastern portions of the forecast area, including eastern Klamath,
Lake, and northern Modoc counties. Models are continuing to
highlight eastern Klamath and Lake counties as well as areas to
the east as having the best chance (15-20%) for thunderstorms.
Additionally, with elevated bases and relatively low precipitable
water values, these storms may be on the dry side. We have
upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for eastern
portion of FWZ 624 and FWZ 625 (2-9 pm PDT) for abundant lightning
on dry fuels. The trough axis pushes east of the area fairly
quickly Wednesday evening and convection is expected to diminish
after 9pm.

Following the trough passage, drier westerly flow aloft moves in
Wednesday night and the thunder risk ends. Expect slight cooling
Wed/Thu over inland areas, but northeast winds provide warmer
weather to the south coast by Thursday. A return of hotter weather
is expected Friday into the weekend with fairly typical late-day
summertime breezes, but also dry afternoon humidity. Offshore
northeast flow over the coastal mountains and Siskiyou mountains may
result in moderate to locally poor RH recovery at night.

-CC/Spilde

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for ORZ624-625.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM PDT
     Thursday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$