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Graton, California 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for Graton CA
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Graton CA
Issued by: National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area/Monterey, CA |
| Updated: 2:44 pm PST Dec 25, 2025 |
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Christmas
Day
Severe
T-Storms
|
Tonight
Severe
T-Storms
then Showers
Likely
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Friday
Showers
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Friday
Night
Chance
Showers
|
Saturday
Mostly Sunny
|
Saturday
Night
Patchy Fog
then Patchy
Frost and
Patchy Fog
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Sunday
Patchy Frost
then Mostly
Sunny
|
Sunday
Night
Mostly Clear
then Patchy
Frost
|
Monday
Areas Frost
then Sunny
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| Hi 52 °F |
Lo 47 °F |
Hi 53 °F |
Lo 42 °F |
Hi 54 °F |
Lo 36 °F |
Hi 54 °F |
Lo 36 °F |
Hi 56 °F |
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Flood Watch
Christmas Day
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Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could be severe. High near 52. South wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Tonight
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Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 10pm, then showers likely. Some of the storms could be severe. Low around 47. South wind 8 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. |
Friday
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Showers before 4pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 4pm and 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. High near 53. South wind around 9 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. |
Friday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. North northwest wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Saturday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 54. Light north northwest wind. |
Saturday Night
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Patchy fog after 10pm. Patchy frost after 3am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 36. |
Sunday
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Patchy frost before 7am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 54. |
Sunday Night
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Patchy frost after 4am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 36. |
Monday
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Areas of frost before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 56. |
Monday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 37. |
Tuesday
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Sunny, with a high near 58. |
Tuesday Night
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Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 38. |
Wednesday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 58. |
Wednesday Night
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Patchy fog. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 40. |
New Year's Day
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A slight chance of showers. Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 55. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Graton CA.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
633
FXUS66 KMTR 252022
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1222 PM PST Thu Dec 25 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1211 PM PST Thu Dec 25 2025
- Severe thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon and
evening. Damaging wind gusts are the main threats, with
tornadoes possible.
- Strong southerly winds continue through Friday.
- A flood watch remains in effect through Friday evening across
the region. The main threat is flash flooding and landslides
from high rain rates.
- Dangerous beach and marine conditions continue through Friday
across the Pacific coast and adjacent beaches.
- Cold temperatures settle in this weekend after the storms break
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1211 PM PST Thu Dec 25 2025
(This evening through Friday)
The active weather continues through this evening. While the
widespread damaging winds have generally eased to a strong breeze,
there are still reports of gusts near 50 mph across the Bay Area.
The main threat today is possible severe thunderstorms. There has
been some scattered storms through the morning, particularly in
the North Bay with small hail and an unconfirmed funnel cloud
reported. The first organized band of showers and possible
thunderstorms is reaching San Francisco now. This will gradually
slide south through the afternoon. The big event today will push
through this evening, around 4-7 PM. A short wave with a robust
low level jet will help trigger what looks like a very organized,
fast moving N-S oriented line of thunderstorms. The early
thunderstorms were somewhat unexpected and we decided to launch a
special 18Z balloon to get better ground truth on how unstable the
atmosphere actually is. The result was somewhat mixed. The
overall CAPE was 170 J/kg, lower than some CAMs analyzed. But the
distribution of was favorable, with most of the instability above
the freezing level, but below 3 km. Overall the parameters were
good for both high shear low CAPE tornados, and QLCS severe wind
gusts. There is actually a very good signal on radar for a
possible waterspout over the Monterey Bay at the moment,
increasing confidence that the atmosphere can support tornadic
activity today.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1211 PM PST Thu Dec 25 2025
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Starting Friday, winds and shower activity will gradually
decrease as the low pressure system offshore opens up into a
trough and moves into northern Oregon. The associated surface
trough axis will move across the Bay Area Friday evening. This
will finally flip the winds back to northerly, bringing drier,
cooler weather for the weekend. The 1000-500 mb thickness actually
increases this weekend, with the cooling coming mainly from
enhanced radiation during in the cloudless nights. Sunday through
Tuesday look particularly calm, clear and cool as a 500 mb ridge
sets in. The next troughing pattern looks probable on the 1st or
2nd, just in time for King Tides. There`s no strong signal for
major impacts yet, but the CW3E ECCC AR Activity tool shows higher
than normal chances for atmospheric rivers through the first half
of January.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 929 AM PST Thu Dec 25 2025
A dry slot is allowing some sun to reach the ground, but strong
southerly winds are ongoing. Showers and thunderstorm activity
will increase through the afternoon, with a distinct peak in
activity expected around 01-03Z as a line of strong thunderstorms
rolls through. Behind this line, the activity will switch to more
scattered showers and moderate to strong southerly winds for the
remainder of the TAF period.
Vicinity of SFO...Winds will stay fixed from the south all day.
There is some uncertainty regarding the onset of rain showers and
possible thunderstorms. The latest high resolution guidance shows
a line of showers developing around 19-20Z, but it`s unclear if
these storms will train over SFO or stay further south. The final
push of strong showers and likely thunderstorms should move
through around 01-02Z and I`ve included a TEMPO line in the TAF
for these brief, but impactful conditions. After this main band
moves through, showers will become lighter and much more
scattered, but the strong southerly winds will remain through the
TAF period and into Friday before finally shifting back to
westerly and easing Friday night.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...The southern terminals have the
best chance of dodging the initial push of shower activity this
afternoon, but will still be hit by the stronger band that rolls
through this evening. Winds will remain strong out of the south
all day and into Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 929 AM PST Thu Dec 25 2025
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY...
While the Storm Warnings have ended, Southeast gales continue
across the coastal waters and will persist into Friday morning.
These dangerous winds are accompanied by a chance for
thunderstorms and possible waterspouts through the evening. Very
rough, choppy seas will accompany these gales and linger through
the day Friday, reinforced by a moderate westerly swell. If your
vessel is not able to handle these conditions return to port or
seek protected waters as soon as possible.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 325 PM PST Wed Dec 24 2025
A Beach Hazards Statement has been issued for the coast through
4AM Friday. The main concerns include:blowing and drifting sand
and wind waves up to 20 ft. The drifting sand and increased sea
spray will also result in poor visibilities, affecting water
rescues. Increased coastal erosion will be possible as well.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for CAZ006-505-509-
529-530.
Flood Watch through Friday evening for CAZ006-502>506-508>510-
512>518-528>530.
PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Friday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF
Bay N of Bay Bridge.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Flynn
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...Flynn
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