Fort Irwin, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

333
FXUS65 KVEF 060800
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
100 AM PDT Sat Sep 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Monsoonal moisture will remain in place today and tomorrow,
  promoting afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity.

* A drying trend is expected the first half of the week as flow
  becomes more westerly. Relatively cooler temperatures will also
  overspread the region by mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Through next Friday.

Once again, scattered thunderstorms are currently (1 AM PDT) moving
southeast through southern Nevada as northerly outflow boundaries
collide with southerly low level flow. High resolution guidance
shows the greatest activity in northwestern Arizona over the next
few hours before exiting the area by daybreak. Flash flooding, gusty
outflow winds, and large hail are all possible with these storms.
Another round of thunderstorms should commence this afternoon,
mainly over Mohave, Clark, and Lincoln counties. Activity should
initially favor high terrain before some storms make it to lower
elevations. Unlike Thursday night and Friday night, convection is
expected to end after sunset due to reduced instability and
moisture. The drying trend will continue on Sunday as the trough
tracks east and moisture is pushed out of the area. Sunday`s storms
should be limited to higher terrain in northwestern Arizona.

Ensembles display rather high confidence in the development of a
large upper trough off the California coast. This will push any
remaining moisture east of the region, resulting in drier conditions
areawide by Monday. With lower heights, we can also expect to see
temperatures around 5-10 degrees below seasonal normals by midweek.
This means highs in the low 90s for Las Vegas. The drier air will
also bring more relief overnight with cool morning lows, including
temperatures in the low 70s in Las Vegas by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Vicinity
convection likely to continue until 08-09z, with a ~25% chance of
storms directly impacting the terminal. Northeast outflow winds
should persist for a few hours, with gusts 15-25 knots possible.
Once convection pushes off to the southeast, winds will become light
and variable. Easterly breezes resume Saturday morning with speeds
generally 6-10 knots. Vicinity storms expected Saturday afternoon,
but should remain out of the valley. Convection and clouds will
begin to clear out in the early evening, with light southerly winds
taking hold.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Convection continues in
the vicinity of the Las Vegas Valley until 08-09z tonight, with a
~25% chance of storms directly impacting the valley sites. These
storms are expected to continue pushing southeast through Mohave
County overnight. Outflow from this activity should result in a
northerly wind shift at the Colorado River Valley and Mohave County
airports. Farther west, calmer conditions prevail overnight.
Tomorrow, expecting winds to follow typical, daily patterns with
isolated afternoon convection east of the I-15 corridor.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meltzer
AVIATION...Woods

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