Essex, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

325
FXUS65 KVEF 150452
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
953 PM PDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will continue to moderate through the
remainer of the work week before another potent weather system
drops into the region, returning strong gusty winds, a chance of
precipitation, and a drop in temperatures. Calmer weather expected
next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Cool northwest flow over the area today kept temperatures
about 8 to 12 degrees below normal along with just a few flat
cumulus over the region. Heights will begin to rise Thursday and
Friday with temperatures jumping about 6 to 8 degrees by the end of
the week. Decreasing northwest winds this evening with generally
light winds on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday.

In the wake of a cold frontal passage this morning, elevated north
winds below between 30 and 50 mph. Gust speeds have since subsided,
with breezy northwest winds between 15 and 25 mph persisting across
the region - greater speeds in northwest-southeast-oriented
corridors and higher terrain. Heights will increase through the
remainder of the work week, resulting in temperatures increasing
back toward near-normal by Friday underneath mostly sunny skies.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday.

Heading into the weekend, a potent trough of low pressure will drop
through the western CONUS. Impacts will include strong southwesterly
pre-frontal winds, strong northwesterly post-frontal winds, a return
of scattered showers / isolated thunderstorms, and a drop in
temperatures over the weekend... once again.

Details continue to be worked out as we hash out the exact intensity
and timing of this system. However, what we know is that PWATs will
increase to 125 to 175 percent of normal (generally between 0.50 and
0.75 inches), which will allow for moderate-to-heavy rain rates
beneath any thunderstorms that develop, but generally light rainfall
elsewhere. Best chances for precipitation currently reside across
the southern Great Basin from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
night into Sunday, though occasional model runs bring precipitation
chances well into the Mojave Desert. Both the ECMWF and GFS ensemble
means have this trough entering the Desert Southwest with a negative
tilt, which will increase thermodynamic instability and wind shear,
meaning severe-level thunderstorms capable of strong winds, large
hail, and frequent lightning cannot be ruled out.

Regarding wind potential, the NBM is slowly trending gustier with
both pre-frontal and post-frontal winds. The latest run has 50-70
percent chances of west-southwest gusts in excess of 40 mph across
the Mojave Desert (along the Interstate 15 corridor) on Saturday and
30-50 percent chances of northwest gusts in excess of 40 mph across
the southwestern Great Basin on Sunday. The LREF has greater
probabilities for both times/locations... 60-90 percent and 40-70
percent, respectively.

Behind the trough, ridging sets up for the start of the work week
that will result in Las Vegas chances for 90 degrees rapidly
increasing through the week and "Moderate" HeatRisk (Level 2 on a
scale from 0 to 4) returning to the low valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package... Light
southwest winds will continue through the overnight period before
becoming variable before daybreak.  A period of north to northeast
winds is included in the latest TAF package, although it is possible
that winds will remain more variable through tomorrow afternoon.
Typical west-to-southwest drainage winds will return tomorrow
evening. VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period with
only FEW to SCT clouds, with bases AOA 12kft AGL expected.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Conditions at Las Vegas
area TAF sites will be similar to those forecast for Harry Reid.
Elsewhere across the region, winds will follow typical diurnal
directional trends on Thursday with speeds generally remaining 12
knots or less.   The exception to this will be at KDAG, where a few
gusts to 20 knots will be possible tomorrow evening.  VFR conditions
will prevail at all area TAF sites with only a FEW to SCT clouds
with bases AOA 12kft AGL.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gorelow
DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Planz

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