Commerce, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

471
FXUS66 KLOX 151216
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
416 AM PST Thu Jan 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...15/1217 AM.

High pressure and offshore flow will bring very warm and dry
conditions across the region through the weekend. Gusty Santa Ana
winds will continue through the end of the week, mainly across
portions of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Today will be the
warmest day of the next seven with a slow cooling trend starting
Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...15/242 AM.

A 589 dam upper high is parked over Redding CA. 585 dam hgts cross
over SBA/VTA/LA counties. The high will weaken over the next few
days and hgts will decrease to 579 dam by Saturday. At the sfc
there will be between 3 and 5 mb of offshore flow through the
period.

Skies today will be clear, but satellite shows low clouds
gathering the west across the outer waters. The decreasing hgts
and not too strong offshore push will likely allow some low
clouds to develop and move into western SBA county and the Long
Beach Torrance area on Friday morning. There is substantial
disagreement with the low cloud forecast on Saturday. The slim majority
of the ensembles bring low clouds to most of the coasts, but a
substantial amount keep enough offshore winds in the area to limit
the low clouds to Friday morning`s locations and nothing more.

Low end wind advisories are in place for the Santa Ana Wind
Corridor through Friday afternoon, but currently the winds are
under performing. The winds will increase during the usual 700am
to 1000am peak, but there is a chc that they will still not reach
advisory levels. Mdls show an uptick in winds compared to today
for Friday morning. Still this portion of the advisory will need
to be evaluated after today`s peak ends. There is not that much
difference in the synoptic parameters from today to tomorrow.

The falling hgts and somewhat weaker offshore flow will bring a
very slight cooling trend of 1-2 degree/day (some sites will see
no change on any of the 3 days) to the area starting today. Max
temps will fall from the upper 70s to mid 80s today to the mid 70s
to lower 80s by Saturday. Max temps will mostly be 8 to 12 degrees
above normal through the period.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...15/1225 AM.

Offshore flow and weak ridging will continue over the state
through the xtnd period, although by Wednesday some changes begin
to occur. The offshore push should not be powerful enough to keep
marine layer stratus away from the coasts where it might generate
some dense fog later at night through the early morning. The
weakening offshore flow and lowering of hgts will contribute to a
continuous cool trend with Sunday`s max temps across the
csts/vlys falling from the 70s to lower 80s to the Mid 60s to
lower 70s by Wednesday. Max temps will be near normal by
Wednesday.

The GFS deterministic run brings a fully formed 552 dam upper low
to the area Friday, while the EC only has dry fast moving NW flow.
The AI mdls and ensembles are much less impressive and while there
is a high chc of a pattern change - the chc of an actual rain
event remains under 40 percent.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1155Z.

At 10Z over KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface
based inversion with a top at 1200 ft and a temperature of 25 C.

High confidence in VFR conditions everywhere through at least
this evening. Small chances of IFR or lower conditions at
immediate coast Friday morning.

At KVNY KCMA KOXR, there is a moderate risk of gusts 20-30 knots
and/or LLWS 10-20 knots. Lower than normal confidence however.
High confidence in relatively light winds (under 15 knots) at all
other airports.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR through at least Friday, and any
east wind component will be 6 knots or less.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR through at least Friday. Less than
20% chance of NE winds 15+ knots surfacing, but LLWS 10-15
knots likely at times.

&&

.MARINE...15/153 AM.

Low confidence on winds from Ventura through Santa Monica from now
through Friday. Computer projections continue to show much
stronger NE winds compared to what is being observed. As such,
winds could be 10 to 15 knots at their peak or 15 to 25 knots.
Kept the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) going but delayed it for a few
hours, but the likelihood of it needed to be all together
cancelled is growing. Otherwise and elsewhere, high confidence in
relatively light winds through the weekend.

A long period west to northwest swell is filling in the region,
but wave heights will stay under 8 feet through the weekend and
into next week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 2 PM PST Friday for
      zones 88-358-369-371-374>376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 8 AM this morning to 3 PM
      PST this afternoon for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Kittell
MARINE...Kittell
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox